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Picks, Prediction for Dodgers vs Braves on Tuesday, May 23
The Atlanta Braves look to shrug off a tough loss on Monday night to the Los Angeles Dodgers after blowing a four-run 1st inning lead. Despite a second-straight poor start by rookie starter Gavin Stone, the Dodgers beat and covered the spread against the Braves for the fourth time in their last five games.
FREDDIE FREEMAN WELCOME BACK TO ATLANTA
— Blake Harris (@BlakeHHarris) May 23, 2023
The MLB odds for Game 2 list Atlanta as heavy favorites with another pitching mismatch on tap.
Dodgers Offense Shines in Series Opener
The Dodgers’ offense did something I didn’t expect on Monday and exploded for eight runs against an excellent Braves pitching staff. Starter Charlie Morton took the brunt of the damage with two runs in the fourth and three in the fifth before getting pulled. LA is now fourth in MLB scoring and third in home runs per game. Max Muncy leads the charge with 15 long balls, while Mooie Betts has 10.
The Braves have a clear edge on the mound, but the Dodgers lineup is scary and dangerous to go off any night.
Braves Have Worst Home ATS Record
The Braves let Monday’s game slip away after taking an early lead against a rookie pitcher. It was a perfect matchup for Atlanta to take Game 1, but Morton and the bullpen couldn’t fend off the Dodgers’ potent offense.
Despite having the worst ATS home record, I thought the Braves could at least cover against a rookie with an ERA of 9.00. Tuesday is a similar situation, but I do not expect similar results.
Starting Pitchers
Bobby Miller (0-0, 0.00) vs Spencer Strider (4-1, 2.96)
The Dodgers are digging into their farm system again and, for the second straight night, will send a rookie arm to the bump against Atlanta. Bobby Miller is baseball’s 31st-best prospect and will be the fourth top-100 prospect to appear for the Dodgers this season. In his last start in Triple-A, Miller allowed just one run over six innings with six strikeouts. His fastball hit 101 three times and overpowered his opponents. Anytime a pitcher makes his debut, it’s a risky MLB bet to back them.
Spencer Strider has been dominant this season with 86 strikeouts in 52 ⅔ innings and has yet to lose a decision at home. The Dodgers are 8-1 in his starts this season but 0-4 against the MLB spreads in his previous four. Of those four ATS losses, only one was his fault after he allowed four earned runs to the Rangers on Wednesday. ATL still managed to win outright.
Dodgers vs Braves Head-to Head
The Dodgers won and covered the spread on Monday as MLB betting underdogs on the road for the first time since 2019. Since then, LA’s only ATS wins against Atlanta were as favorites.
With Miller on the mound for LA, we have to give them the upper hand in this game. Despite winning with a rookie on the mound last night, the Dodgers won despite their pitching, not because of it. They will likely have to do the same tonight to lock up a series win in Game 2.
The major worry is the Dodgers’ bullpen which has been bad this season, with an ERA of 4.62. If you are MLB live betting on this game, consider fading LA if they are forced to lean on their relievers early.
Dodgers vs Braves Game Information
- Game: Dodgers (30-19) vs Braves (29-18)
- Location Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
- Day/Time: Tuesday, May 23, 7:20 p.m. ET
- Dodgers vs Braves Live Stream: MLB.tv
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Dodgers vs Braves Betting Lines
Over/Under Pick
With Miller on the bump in his MLB debut, I recommend the Over for this showdown of division leaders. Monday’s series debut saw 14 runs scored, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see similar results from another unproven rookie on Tuesday.
Pick: Over 8½ (Ev)
Moneyline Pick
Like Monday’s series opener, the Braves lack value on the moneyline at -200 on the MLB lines. And like last night, despite losing, I will fade LA with a rookie arm on the mound. Strider is a better pitcher than Charlie Morton, and I don’t expect the Braves’ strong bullpen to cough up another lead.
Pick: Atlanta Braves -200
Spread Pick
My best MLB pick for Tuesday’s clash is for the Braves to win and cover the spread as favorites. The Dodgers may have one of the best lineups in the league, but Strider has been phenomenal this season and has my trust on Tuesday.
Pick: Atlanta Braves -1½ (Ev)
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