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Don’t Be Like Mike: Fade Clevinger in Thursday MLB Player Props

We have a short schedule of MLB games on Thursday, with just eight games on the board. Our consistently profitable MLB picks are here to deliver. Our past success, which you can rely on, should give you the confidence to tag along.

Let’s take a quick look at Thursday’s MLB schedule. It’s a travel day for most of the league, so we only have a few top matchups. Most notably, the Philadelphia Phillies are looking to complete the three-game series sweep against the Texas Rangers. Philadelphia is off to a historic start.

Don’t Be Like Mike: Fade Clevinger in Thursday MLB Player Props
Mike Clevinger #52 Of The Chicago White Sox / Jamie Sabau / Getty Images North America / Getty Images Via Afp

The Baltimore Orioles, among the American League favorites, continue their road trip against the White Sox in the first of a four-game set on Thursday night. Plenty of options exist for player prop bets today, but I’ve done the hard work of narrowing down the best for you based on specific criteria and analysis, such as recent performance, matchup history and player trends.

This ensures you’re well-informed before making your bets. Get ready for another exciting day of MLB action!





Best MLB Player Prop Today

White Sox SP Mike Clevinger Over 2½ Earned Runs Allowed (-141)

The pitching matchup tonight between the Orioles and White Sox is highly one-sided and favors the O’s. Baltimore will send 24-year-old Grayson Rodriguez to the rubber while Chicago will have veteran right-hander Mike Clevinger on the mound. Clevinger will be making his fourth start of the season.

The righty began his career as a promising front-end rotation arm with Cleveland, but injuries, trades and an untimely domestic abuse allegation have thrown his career trajectory off course. This is his second season with the White Sox, and he has a 5.56 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP through his first three outings in 2024.

Clevinger appeared in 24 games with Chicago last season, and his numbers left much to be desired. He was league average in xERA and xBA and in the bottom 30 percentile in WHIFF% and K%. He made one start against Baltimore last season, throwing six innings of one-hit ball. However, he did walk five batters.

Clevinger has allowed three earned runs in two of three starts this season – against the Rays and Yankees. He has yet to reach five innings, with his pitch count hovering around 80 pitches thus far. Therefore, we’ll need the Baltimore bats to jump on him early.

The Orioles have cooled off in May after a terrific April, but a date with Clevinger could right the ship. Baltimore is in the bottom 10 in both batting average and runs scored this month. The Orioles got going offensively in the final game against the Cardinals, and I expect them to carry that momentum into their series with the White Sox.



Orioles C Adley Rutschman Over 1½ Total Bases (-103)

The O’s were swept by the St. Louis Cardinals and shut down by the trio of veterans Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. I searched high and low for a way to back the Baltimore Orioles today against Clevinger, and I settled on Adley Rutschman. While I think going with Clevinger over 2½ earned runs allowed is a solid look, I’m also rolling with Rutschman to go over 1½ total bases from hits tonight.

The veteran Clevinger loves his four-seam fastball, throwing it nearly 40% of the time. This is where I love Rutschman in this matchup. Rutschman has the fourth-highest run value of any player in MLB on four-seam fastballs. Rutschman is batting .415 against four-seamers with an insane 66.7% hard hit %!

Rutschman is swinging the bat well on the road compared to his teammates. He has a .315 batting average away from Camden Yards. The switch-hitting catcher has been in a slump over the previous week but has reached two total bases in four of his last seven games.


Orioles SS Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+200)

I’m also firing on a rare home run bet in tonight’s White Sox-Orioles matchup. I’ll take the chalk pick of Gunnar Henderson, who has 16 long balls already this season, which is tied for the second-most in MLB. Henderson hit a homer in four consecutive games before going 0-for-4 his last time out in St. Louis.

The matchup with Clevinger is a solid one. He allowed homers to Aaron Judge and Josh Naylor in his previous two starts. Henderson can do his damage against a White Sox bullpen that is tied with the fourth-most home runs allowed this season. Guaranteed Rate Field is notoriously known as a hitter’s ballpark. It ranks fifth among all stadiums in park factor for left-handed hitter home runs. Henderson could stay hot in this series.



Questions of the Day

Who will record the most strikeouts in Thursday’s MLB Games?

Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil is projected to record the most strikeouts on Thursday when New York battles the Seattle Mariners.

What is the best MLB player prop bet on Thursday night?

The best player prop bet on Thursday night is White Sox starting pitcher Mike Clevinger over 2½ Earned Runs against the Baltimore Orioles.

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