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F5 MLB Best Pick Today 8/28: Fade Buehler vs Orioles on Wednesday Night

· Aug 28 - 4 minutes read

Walker Buehler has a 7.36 ERA in August.
Buehler has allowed 11 home runs in 44 ⅓ innings.
The Orioles rank 6th in the MLB in runs scored in the F5 innings.
Check the latest MLB odds for the best F5 lines.

Two of the best teams in the league face off Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium, with the Baltimore Orioles in town looking to regain their lead in the AL East over the surging New York Yankees. The Dodgers, meanwhile, look to hold onto their lead in the NL West with the Arizona Diamondbacks just three games back.

F5 MLB Best Pick Today 8/28: Fade Buehler vs Orioles on Wednesday Night — Walker Buehler #21 | Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images/AFP

The problem with the Dodgers tonight is simple. Starter Walker Buehler has been a nightmare on the hill, and frankly, I’m surprised he hasn’t been sent down yet. Because of his epically bad results dating back to last season, I feel confident in adding the Orioles to my MLB picks on Wednesday in the first five innings.

My Best First Five Innings Pick for 8/28

Buehler has seen his share of issues in 2024. Limited to just 10 starts this season due to various ailments, he sports a troubling 6.09 ERA and an even worse 6.17 FIP across 44.1 innings. His whiff rate is alarmingly low at 17.3%, and he’s been allowing a staggering 2.23 home runs per nine innings.

In his last four starts, Buehler has struck out fewer than 10% of the batters he’s faced, a stark contrast to his past performances, during which he regularly exceeded 200 strikeouts in a season.

Simply put, Buehler appears to be a shadow of his former self and a great candidate for an MLB bet against.

The Orioles, on the other hand, are no strangers to capitalizing on such weaknesses. They’ve covered the First Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 67 of their last 118 games, translating to a solid +7.60 units and a 5% ROI. Additionally, they’ve hit the F5 Moneyline in 24 of their last 44 away games, which reflects +6.00 units and a 10% ROI.

With their ability to exploit weak pitching, the Orioles are well-positioned to take advantage of Buehler’s current struggles.

What makes the Orioles’ case even stronger is Buehler’s concerning splits against left-handed batters. Lefties are hitting .372 against him this season, and the Orioles’ lineup is packed with left-handed talent.

Baltimore will likely field only two right-handed hitters tonight, tilting the MLB odds in their favor.

Moreover, Buehler has allowed 2.24 home runs per nine innings, and with the Orioles’ impressive 147 home runs against righties this year (second only to the Yankees), they’re poised to make an impact early.

Corbin Burnes vs Walker Buehler tomorrow pic.twitter.com/UkMe8D1Lfi

— Restitutor Orbis (@jgutierrez55) August 28, 2024

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Orioles F5 Inning Team Total Over 2.5 (+120)

Considering Buehler’s xSLG and K-rate are in the league’s bottom 10%, coupled with Baltimore’s .455 slugging percentage and 2.83 runs average in the first five innings, the +120 MLB line on the Orioles to exceed their 2.5 run total look enticing.

In conclusion, with Walker Buehler struggling and the Orioles’ potent lineup ready to exploit his weaknesses, betting on Baltimore to score over 2.5 runs in the first five innings is promising.

Bet on Orioles F5 Inning Team Total Over 2½ (+120)

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.