F5 MLB Pick 8/16: Bet on Quiet Start in Mariners vs. Pirates

With a set total of 3.5 runs, we have all the ingredients for a low-scoring affair, and here’s why backing the Under is a strong MLB pick.

Best First Five Innings Pick for 8/16

Paul Skenes has been nothing short of spectacular this season. Despite starting the year in the minor leagues, his rapid ascent to the majors culminated in an All-Star game start for the National League — a rare honor for a rookie. He also earned a spot in our MLB betting parlay for Friday.

Skenes boasts a stellar 2.25 ERA and an equally impressive 0.96 WHIP. His advanced metrics are similarly dominant, with a 96th percentile xERA of 2.61 and a 94th percentile xBA of .199. Skenes’ ability to generate swings and misses is elite, ranking in the 74th percentile for whiff rate and the 94th percentile for strikeout rate.

“Remember when you said the Pirates were making the playoffs?” pic.twitter.com/ooqw2yBC6u

— SkenesMuse (@PaulSkenesMuse) August 16, 2024

Tonight, Skenes faces a Mariners offense that has struggled mightily all season. Seattle leads the league in strikeouts and ranks near the bottom in key offensive categories like batting average, OBP and SLG. Given these statistics, Skenes is set up perfectly to dominate a Mariners lineup that has shown little ability to make consistent contact, let alone produce runs.

On the other side, Logan Gilbert has quietly been one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball. With a 2.91 ERA and a league-best 0.87 WHIP, Gilbert has been the model of consistency. While his underlying metrics might not pop as much as Skenes’, he’s still among the best, ranking in the top third of the league in strikeout, chase rate and barrel percentage.

Gilbert’s matchup against the Pirates is just as favorable. Pittsburgh ranks 24th or worse in batting average, OPS, SLG and OBP. They’re among the worst teams scoring early in games, ranking 29th in first-inning runs. The Pirates’ inability to get off to fast starts, coupled with Gilbert’s dominance, makes it unlikely that Pittsburgh will resist much in the first five innings.

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F5 Inning Pick: Under 3.5 Runs (-135)

The Mariners have hit the F5 Under in 51 of their last 89 games, showing an 8% ROI. Meanwhile, the Pirates have managed to go Over the F5 total in just 23 of their last 41 home games, but this was against significantly less formidable pitching than they’ll face tonight.

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert throws 7 shutout innings, heads to the clubhouse & immediately starts playing “College Football 25.” 🫡 pic.twitter.com/1oaOlYznbq

— College Sports Only (@CollegeSportsO) August 11, 2024

In summary, we have two elite pitchers with sub-3.00 ERAs facing off against two of the league’s most anemic offenses. Skenes has the stuff to mow down a strikeout-prone Mariners lineup while Gilbert should have little trouble keeping the Pirates off the board.

With all signs pointing towards a low-scoring battle through the first five innings, taking the Under 3.5 runs at -135 odds is a bet online worth making.

Bet On Mariners vs. Pirates Under 3½ -135 

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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