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Fade Offenses, Bet Under for Red Sox vs Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming off their first series loss, being swept by the New York Mets. The Pirates will now host the Boston Red Sox without their original scheduled starter for the game, which could shift MLB spreads today.

In the Red Sox’s last series, they lost three of four at home to the Cleveland Guardians. The Mets swept the visiting Pirates, who struggled throughout the series, only scoring five runs while giving up 18.

Fade Offenses, Bet Under for Red Sox vs Pirates
Fade Offenses, Bet Under for Red Sox vs Pirates


Red Sox vs Pirates Game Information

  • Game: Red Sox (10-10) vs Pirates (11-8)
  • Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
  • Day/Time: Friday, April 19, 6:40 p.m. ET
  • Red Sox vs Pirates Live Stream: MLB.tv


Marco Gonzales was expected to start for the Pirates, but he is now on the 15-day injured list. That can shift picks for MLB in this game. Quinn Priester will get the start for the Pirates in make his first appearance this season. He had a 7.74 ERA in 10 games in 2023.

For the Red Sox, Brayan Bello will be taking the mound. He has a 3.92 ERA through four starts this season. Overall, he has been solid, allowing more than two earned runs just once while having 17 strikeouts through 15.2 innings in April.


Red Sox vs Pirates Odds and Spreads


  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.25 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 104 games (+13.80 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)


Red Sox vs Pirates Moneyline Pick: Pirates -110

Neither team is coming into this series with much faith from MLB lines. The Red Sox lost three of four games in their last series, with the only win coming via a complete-game shutout. Boston’s pitching allowed 21 runs in the three losses.

While Bello hasn’t dominated, he has pitched well. In his last start, he went 5.1 innings, allowing two runs and striking out seven batters.

The Pirates played poorly against the Mets. They opened up the series with a 6-3 loss and then only scored two more runs in the following two games, losing 3-1 and 9-1. It dimmed what seemed like such a promising start to the season, winning 11 of the first 16 games. Now, with a starting pitcher who has only appeared in 10 games over his career, the start of the series with the Red Sox could also be concerning.

However, the Pirates’ return home could help them level things out for MLB odds. It also helps that the Red Sox have had their struggles. Neither team’s lineups have hit well, but that could be balanced out by the lackluster starting pitching.



Red Sox vs Pirates Over/Under Pick: Under 8½ -120

Given both teams’ offensive troubles in their last series, it makes sense that MLB picks would go with the under for this matchup. Over the previous 10 games, both teams have hit the under four times. The Red Sox were the only team of these two to score over four runs in their last series, doing so just once.

While both teams are averaging over 4.25 runs this season, neither lineup is hitting the ball well at the moment. The Pirates scored just five runs in their last series, and the Red Sox scored 13 runs against Cleveland, seven of which came in one game.



Red Sox vs Pirates Player Prop Pick: Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 Hits (-239)

With both offenses scraping, it’s hard for prop bettors to back either team. However, there’s always the potential of a batter having a big game. Oneil Cruz has not gotten off to the best start for Pittsburgh, but in the last game against the Mets, he had two hits despite the loss. Hopefully, that could help him build some momentum.



Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction

Pirates 4, Red Sox 3



Questions Of The Day

Which team has scored more runs this season?

Despite the Pirates’ recent offensive struggles, they have scored the 11th-most runs in the league, at 92 over 19 games.

Who has the starting pitching advantage in this game?

The Red Sox have the advantage, given that Brayan Bello was their Opening Day starter

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