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First Five Inning Frenzy: Two MLB Bets to Bank On Today

Prepare yourself for a winning Wednesday with two sharp MLB bets focusing on the first five innings.

After two late-game bullpen meltdowns, the Yankees look to Nestor Cortes’ home dominance to secure a lead against the Mariners early on. Cortes, boasting a 1.67 ERA and .168 OBA at Yankee Stadium, faces a strikeout-prone Seattle lineup.

First Five Inning Frenzy: Two MLB Bets to Bank On Today
Juan Soto #22 of the New York Yankees/Mike Stobe/Getty Images/AFP

Meanwhile, the Red Sox and Rays set the stage for a low-scoring duel. Boston’s Brayan Bello and Tampa Bay’s Ryan Pepiot are poised to keep runs at a premium in the first five innings, making the Under 4 runs a top-tier MLB pick.


1. New York Yankees -½ F5 (-110)

The Yankees lost the series opener against the Mariners in a wild finish on Monday, with closer Clay Holmes blowing a 4-1 ninth-inning lead after not allowing an earned run in his first 20 appearances. New York followed that game up with another late-game disaster, allowing 4 runs in the final three frames. To avoid any late-game bullpen drama, we’re focusing on the first five innings, where Yankees southpaw Nestor Cortes has been a force at home.

Cortes is 2-1 with a dazzling 1.67 ERA and a .168 OBA in five starts at Yankee Stadium, compared to a shaky 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and .292 OBA on the road. He faces a Mariners lineup that strikes out at the fourth-highest rate against left-handed pitching (25%) and ranks in the bottom 10 in BABIP.


Seattle thrives on the long ball, boasting a top-four home run/fly ball rate (13.7%) against lefties, but Cortes has been a homerun suppressant at home, allowing just two homers in 35 2/3 innings. Additionally, the Mariners lineup has zero extra-base hits in 19 at-bats against him, making Cortes the perfect pitcher to stymie their offense early.

Meanwhile, the Yankees should feast on Seattle’s Bryce Miller, who has struggled mightily against this lineup, allowing a .993 xSLG and .574 xwOBA. With Cortes’ impressive 1.27 ERA and 0.65 WHIP at Yankee Stadium this year, it’s clear that pitching in front of passionate New Yorkers elevates his game.

Betting on the Yankees -½ ATS in the first five innings combines Cortes’ home dominance and the Mariners’ offensive struggles, making it a smart and lucrative MLB pick. Get in on the action and watch the Yankees set the tone early.


2. Red Sox vs Rays F5 Under 4 Runs (-110)

Get ready to cash in on a low-scoring affair between the Red Sox and the Rays as we dive into why MLB betting on the first five innings to go under 4 runs at -110 odds is a savvy pick.

Let’s start with Brayan Bello, the Red Sox’s starting pitcher. Despite his overall performance not being exceptional, Bello has shown consistency by allowing two or fewer runs in his last four starts. The Rays’ offense, which is currently ranked 22nd in runs scored with an average of 4.04 per game, has been struggling, especially in the first inning where they are ranked 23rd. This could be a crucial factor in your betting strategy.


On the other hand, Ryan Pepiot will be taking the mound for the Rays. He’s coming off the IL with a leg injury sustained on May 5th, but before that, he had held opponents to one or fewer runs in each of his last three starts. Boston’s early-game offense has cooled off lately, scoring just one first-inning run in the previous four games.

With Bello’s recent strong performances and Pepiot’s ability to limit runs, this matchup sets the stage for a pitchers’ duel early on. Betting on the under for the first five innings combines solid pitching stats and current team trends, making it a sharp move at -110 MLB odds.



The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.

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