Garcia, Astros Will Take Back Series

With the 2021 World Series all square at one game apiece between the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves, Friday night’s Game 3 in Atlanta is a pivotal one. The winner will get a slim Fall-Classic lead and home-field advantage, while the loser will really start feeling the heat that comes when crunchtime of a best-of-seven series truly begins.

Luis Garcia, fresh off a gem in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series against the Boston Red Sox, will start Game 3 for the Astros while the impressive Ian Anderson goes for Atlanta. It’s the eighth matchup between rookie starting pitchers in World Series history and the first since 2006, when a current (injured) Astro was on the mound.

World Series Game 3 between Luis García and Ian Anderson will be the 8th matchup between rookie starting pitchers in a World Series game and first since 2006 WS Game 1

Starting lineups from that one ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/LhkAth7LNu

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) October 28, 2021

After an ugly Game 1 loss in which Framber Valdez was rocked by the Braves, Houston returned the favor with a 7-2 win in Game 2 on Wednesday. The Astros scratched across a run in the bottom of the first inning against Max Fried, and then added four in the second, highlighted by a two-run Martín Maldonado single on which Atlanta threw the ball around a bit. It was an early sign that it was going to be all Astros, which ended up being the case. José Urquidy threw five strong innings and the Houston bullpen was close to perfect in relief.

Fried did a good job to finish five innings — he gave up seven hits and six runs in total — but it was clear from the get-go that he just didn’t have his usual stuff on Wednesday night in Houston. Now, after a Thursday day off, the action shifts to Georgia for the next three games.

First pitch from Truist Park is at 8:09 p.m. ET. The BetUS Sportsbook has the Braves as slight -108 moneyline favorites (+175 on the runline). The Astros are -102 moneyline underdogs (-210 on the runline). Current MLB lines have the over/under at 8½ runs, juiced slightly to the under.

Garcia Will Stay On Form

The 2021 playoffs couldn’t possibly have begun any worse for Garcia. He started Game 2 of the ALDS against the Chicago White Sox and didn’t make it out of the third inning. Giving up five runs (on five hits and three walks), Houston went on to lose that game 12-6. While the Astros, of course, ended up advancing past Chicago, Garcia’s initial performance was a major cause for concern because he had been so good during the regular season (3.30 ERA with nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings).

He managed to fare even worse in his second playoff appearance, an ALCS Game 2 start versus the scorching hot Red Sox. Garcia walked two of the first five batters he faced in that game and then gave up a long grand slam to J.D. Martinez that broke the game open early for Boston. Garcia only pitched to one batter in the second inning before he was taken out for Jake Odorizzi, partially because he was suffering from what turned out to be a relatively minor knee injury, but also because of how poorly he was pitching.

Even after those back-to-back dreadful starts, Dusty Baker trusted him with the ball in the clinching Game 6 when he finally came through. Garcia fired 5.2 scoreless innings, giving up just one hit and one walk and striking out seven. He was flat-out dominant and will try to duplicate that performance on Friday night.

The key for Garcia is to get ahead in counts early and to keep challenging hitters. Walks really hurt him earlier in the postseason and were a concern during the regular season too, as he walked nearly three batters per nine innings (which was an improvement over his control struggles in the minors). The Braves have a lot of free swingers who are vulnerable when they’re in pitchers’ counts and can be goaded into chasing bad pitches.

If you’re betting online, you should bet on Garcia and the Astro straight-up as slight underdogs. The MLB playoff odds might be overrating the Braves being at home just a bit, and you can take advantage of that by going with a confident young pitcher and the best offense in baseball.

Anderson Could Be Wild Card

From Atlanta’s perspective, there’s nothing to complain about regarding Anderson’s production thus far in the postseason. Over 12 innings, he has allowed just three runs on nine hits and four walks. The problem is that those 12 innings are split across three starts. Anderson has yet to show Brian Snitker that he can keep up his effectiveness into the sixth inning, which is so critical entering a three-games-in-three-days stretch even if it’s at home.

Anderson held the Los Angeles Dodgers to just one run over four innings in the decisive Game 6 on 66 pitches before he was taken out for A.J. Minter. While Anderson likely had some gas left in the tank, it was not a good sign for Anderson to not have Sniker’s trust to go out for another inning against the bottom of the Los Angeles order. The bullpen moves worked out but that was an elimination game (for the Dodgers) and, in elimination games, it makes sense to rush to the bullpen as early as possible.

However, because the trio of Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson and Will Smith likely can’t pitch three days in a row, the Braves could really use some length from Anderson. Atlanta’s bullpen core — now maybe including Minter as well — is relatively thin and will be especially burdened now with Charlie Morton’s season-ending injury.

Look for the Astros to get to Anderson early on Friday, like they did to Fried. As far as MLB picks go, you should take Houston on the road after they won an energizing Game 2.