After what feels like years of waiting, MLB opening day is here and the Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners is our nightcap for day one of the season. The Mariners dominated the Guardians last season, and the MLB lines expect them to pick up right where they left off as slight moneyline favorites and +180 on the MLB run line.
Bieber to Start Fourth Consecutive Opener
The Cleveland Guardians are putting their best foot forward on Thursday with Shane Bieber making his fourth Opening Day start. The righty finished 2022 with an impressive 2.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 198 strikeouts in 200 innings. Bieber finished in the top 17 of each of those categories. He also held the Mariners to one run over seven innings in his lone start against Seattle.
The Guardians responded to their unexpected playoff berth in 2022 by taking on some veteran talent to make a run toward the pennant. Josh Bell and Mike Zunino add depth to a lineup featuring Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor.
The Guardians don’t hit for much power, but they don’t strike out much. They are a team that hits for contact and is happy to settle for single after single. It will be an exciting battle between them and Luis Castillo, who averaged 10.6 punchouts per nine innings in 2022. Last season, Castillo fanned 14 Guardians in less than 13 innings. Furthermore, T-Mobile Park saw the most strikeouts of any stadium in 2022. The Guardians’ patience at the plate will be tested on Thursday,
Mariners Dealing with High Expectations
The 2023 Seattle Mariners are a team many have pegged for a breakout season and potentially making their first World Series in history. But the MLB is a marathon, not a sprint, and we must get through Opening Day before talking about dark-horse champions.
Luis Castillo gets the start for the Mariners. He made 11 starts for the club in 2022 after being traded by the Cincinnati Reds. Castillo shined and finished the season 8-6 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. His career numbers against Cleveland are bad, but Castillo held the Guardians to one run over 12 total innings in 2022 with an ERA of 0.75 and an impressive 14 strikeouts.
AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez is primed for another massive season. Some MLB news outlets list him as a legit candidate to win the AL MVP. Rodriguez hit .284 with 28 home runs and finished with the 16th-best OPS in the MLB (.853). He matches up well against Bieber with a .286 average and 21 home runs against right-handers last season.
Guardians vs Mariners Game Injuries
Guardians vs Mariners Head-to-Head
The Mariners dominated the Guardians in 2022 with a 5-1 record over two series. The M’s swept the Guardians in September while covering the spread as favorites on the MLB betting all four times.
Guardians vs Mariners Game Information
- Game: Guardians (0-0) vs Mariners (0-0)
- Location T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
- Day/Time: Thursday, March 30, 9:10 p.m. ET
- Guardians vs Mariners Live Stream: MLB.tv
Guardians vs Mariners Betting Lines
Guardians vs Mariners Picks and Prediction
My MLB picks for this game will avoid winners and losers for Opening Day. With two ace pitchers on the mound and zero recent results to rely on, making a spread bet online feels too risky.
However, the total at 6½ feels very beatable when considering the pitching and park factor. T-Mobile Park was the lowest-scoring stadium in 2021 and 2022 due to a few factors, including the humidity in Seattle. Thursday’s humidity is expected to be around 65% at game time. With two ace pitchers and a muggy night at the ballpark, many factors point toward the under.
The Cleveland Guardians are listed at +107 in our Vegas MLB lines. If you wager $100 on the Guardians, you can win $107. The Seattle Mariners are -117, offering a chance to win $85 on a $100 wager. The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives the Guardians a 48.31% chance to win, with the Mariners at 53.92%.
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Guardians vs Mariners Edge
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Guardians vs Mariners Game Summary
