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Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction, Game Preview, Live Stream, Odds and Picks April 28

Boston Looks to Rebound Against Cleveland

The Boston Red Sox head into their series opener at home against the Cleveland Guardians, still licking their wounds after losing two of three to the Baltimore Orioles. Boston was on a streak of three-straight series wins before falling below .500 against Baltimore. Meanwhile, the Guardians are 2-7 in their last nine games and must get back on track soon.

The MLB lines list the Indians as moneyline and run line favorites.

Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction, Game Preview, Live Stream, Odds and Picks April 28
Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction, Game Preview, Live Stream, Odds and Picks April 28

Guardians 4-14 ATS as Favorites

The Guardians got off to a hot 7-4 start to the season, and fans were pleased with the results. However, from an MLB betting perspective, the Guardians are one of the worst teams in the league.

At 9-16 ATS overall, the Guardians have the seventh-worst record in the MLB and a return on investment (ROI) of 21.69%. Things get much uglier when we look at their 4-14 record as favorites on the MLB spreads. With a win rate of 22.2% when favored, the Guardians are hard to trust in this situation.

To make matters worse, starter Shane Bieber (1-1, 3.23) is having a down year with just one team win in his first five starts. If the season ended today, Bieber would have the worst ERA of his career after his rookie year. Bieber’s strikeout total is low, his walk rate high, and he allowed 27 hits in 30 ⅔ innings of work.

Pivetta Struggling in Recent Starts

The Red Sox would be attractive favorites on Friday if it weren’t for Nick Pivetta making his fifth start. His first two outings were fine, and he walked away with a 0.90 ERA 10⅓ innings. However, he fell off a cliff after that and allowed nine earned runs in his last 9⅔ innings. The strikeout totals are there, but with four home runs on the year, he needs to make better decisions.

The veteran righty also has a rough .295 batting average against the current Guardians’ lineup, with a .712 OPS in 61 plate appearances.

As a team, the Red Sox are playing much better than earlier in the season and could move above .500 on Friday with a win. It’s hard to overlook Pivetta’s struggles, and I’m wary of trusting the BoSox as underdogs in this series debut.

Guardians vs Red Sox Game Injuries

Guardians vs Red Sox Head-to-Head

The Red Sox won the 2022 season series 5-2 outright and against the MLB run line. The Over/Under was 3-3-1.

Guardians vs Red Sox Game Information

  • Game: Guardians (12-13) vs Red Sox (13-13)
  • Location Fenway Park, Boston, MA
  • Day/Time: Friday, April 28, 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Guardians vs Red Sox Live stream: MLB.tv

Guardians vs Red Sox Betting Lines

Guardians vs Red Sox Picks & Prediction

The Guardians have a lot going against them on Friday, including a terrible ATS record as favorites, a struggling starter, and they are on the road.

If you’re live betting this game, you may want to consider some home run props on Boston’s power hitters. Despite having the sixth-best bullpen ERA in the MLB (3.18), they’ve allowed the 23rd most home runs (12) this season.

The Cleveland Guardians are listed at -133 in our Vegas MLB lines. If you wager $100 on the Guardians, you can win $75. The Boston Red Sox are +123, offering a chance to win $123 on a $100 wager.

The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives the Guardians a 57.08% chance to win, with the Red Sox at 44.84%.

Guardians vs Red Sox Edge

Guardians vs Red Sox Results

Guardians vs Red Sox Game Summary

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