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Guardians vs Yankees Prediction, Game Preview, Live Stream, Odds & Picks Oct 11

New York Hosts Game 1 of Best-of-Five ALDS

Judge and Co. Primed for Deep Run

Already, the MLB playoffs have laid waste to multiple teams that had expectations for a long postseason run, including one in New York. The Yankees will try to avoid that fate when they take on the Cleveland Guardians in a best-of-five American League Division Series, beginning Tuesday night with Game 1 in the Bronx.

The Guardians soar into New York after sweeping two from the Tampa Bay Rays in the wild-card round, giving them some momentum in this intriguing matchup.

Guardians vs Yankees Prediction, Game Preview, Live Stream, Odds & Picks, Oct. 11
Guardians vs Yankees Prediction, Game Preview, Live Stream, Odds & Picks, Oct. 11

Let’s check the latest MLB odds, stats, injury reports, and MLB lines for Guardians vs Yankees. We’ve plenty of MLB Vegas odds for you to consider.

Young Guardians Riding High

Cleveland is the definitive underdog in this series, but it is also the type of team that can make a mockery of prognosticators and those making MLB playoff odds. The Guardians are the youngest team in the majors and have no high-priced stars outside of Jose Ramirez. There’s not a ton of glitz and glam. Essentially, they’re just a confident bunch with very good pitching and nothing to lose.

“We’re confident in ourselves, we’re confident in each other, we continue to pull for each other, and everybody continues to kind of just count us out,” Cleveland ace Shane Bieber told the media. “But when you’re playing with house money, there’s something special about it.”

Bieber and his mates held the Rays to one run on nine hits over the two games of the wild-card series. Although the Guardians were forced to burn through seven relievers in Saturday’s 15-inning affair, they get two days off before Game 1 and are expected to use a fully rested Cal Quantrill – fresh off a 15-5 regular season – on Tuesday night.

Quantrill was one of the few Cleveland arms who was able to stifle the Yankees in their six meetings during the regular season. He held the Bombers to three runs in 6⅓ innings in an eventual 5-4 loss, and the man that makes everything happen for New York – Aaron Judge – is 0-for-5 against the right-hander.

If Quantrill is able to get the game in good shape to Cleveland’s bullpen, backed by dominant closer Emmanuel Clase, the Guardians have the edge against an uncertain Yankees’ bullpen. Clase followed up a remarkable regular season (1.36 ERA, 42 saves) by retiring all seven batters he faced in the wild-card round. He could be the X factor in this series, and should be a big influence for those making their MLB picks.

Yankees Hopes Regular Season Translates to Playoffs

Nobody won more home games than New York, which was 57-24 at Yankee Stadium. Three of those victories came in a sweep of Cleveland in April in which the Yankees outscored the Guardians 19-7.

The winner in the finale of that set was Gerrit Cole, who gets the start in Game 1 for the hosts. Cole blanked Cleveland over 6 ⅔ frames in that matchup in April and then defeated the Guardians in a rematch at Cleveland in July with six solid innings.

The star right-hander had an uneven year, posting a franchise-record 257 strikeouts but also recording his highest ERA (3.50) since 2017 and serving up an AL-leading 33 home runs. Two of those – back-to-back solo shots – came in that July matchup with the Guardians, but Cleveland is not especially equipped to take advantage of Cole’s gopher ball issues. The Guardians ranked 29th in baseball with 127 home runs during the regular season, better than only the Detroit Tigers.

With Cole, Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino lined up, the Yankees seem to be in great shape on the mound.

“This is one of the areas of our club that I’m really excited about heading into the postseason,” manager Aaron Boone told the media. “We can go match up with other teams’ pitchers. I feel like this is the best way to line it up as we embark on our goal of winning a championship.”

The area of concern for Boone has to be the bullpen. Aroldis Chapman punctuated a miserable year by missing a workout, leaving him off the ALDS roster, and All-Star closer Clay Holmes is a bit of a question mark as he hasn’t pitched in weeks due to a shoulder strain.

New York was one of two AL teams with a better bullpen ERA than the Guardians, but the hosts have some question marks there entering this series.

Guardians vs Yankees Game Injuries

Guardians vs Yankees Head-to-Head

New York won five of six during the regular season while outscoring Cleveland 38-14.

The teams have met several times in the postseason, the last coming in 2020, when the Yankees won a wild-card round 2-0. New York also defeated the Guardians (then the Indians) in a 2017 ALDS after dropping the first two games in Cleveland. That was the first postseason matchup between the teams since Joba Chamberlain’s famous duel with the midges in 2007.

Guardians vs Yankees Game Information

  • Game: Guardians vs Yankees
  • Location: Yankee Stadium, New York
  • Day/Time: Tuesday, Oct. 11, 7:37 p.m. ET
  • Guardians vs Yankees Live stream: MLB.tv

Guardians vs Yankees Betting Lines

Team Handicap Moneyline Total
Cleveland Guardians
C. Quantrill -R
+1½ -125 +170 7 Evo
New York Yankees
G. Cole -R
-1½ +105 -200 7 -120

The odds in this chart are based on the time of publication. They are subject to change.

Guardians vs Yankees Prediction

While Cole hasn’t been lights out, especially of late, he has been a better pitcher at home throughout his Yankees career. Additionally, he has a 2.93 ERA in 14 postseason starts, including a 13-strikeout gem against Cleveland in 2020. Compare that to Quantrill, whose playoff career consists of him facing only two batters in a relief appearance in 2020.

As long as Cole can keep it in the yard, a better bet against these Guardians than other teams out there, he’ll be just fine. The Yankees have such a massive edge in power, especially at home, where they hit more home runs (136) than the Guardians did all season. Someone at some point will run into a Quantrill offering and give the hosts enough of an edge to take the opener.

Guardians vs Yankees Edge

Guardians vs Yankees Results

Guardians vs Yankees Game Summary

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