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Hard to Pick Against Harper, Phillies Heading Into Game 4 of the NLCS

· Oct 20 - 6 minutes read

The change of scenery might have been just what the Arizona Diamondbacks needed. After allowing six home runs and 11 extra-base hits in the first two games of the National League Championship Series, the Diamondbacks held the Phillies to three hits in a Game 3 win. The MLB betting lines have the visiting Phillies as the favorites in Game 4.

The MLB odds have Philadelphia priced at -126 to win Game 4, with Arizona coming in at +116.

Hard to Pick Against Harper, Phillies Heading Into Game 4 of the NLCS

Philadelphia ranks second and Arizona third in the postseason with runs scored. The Phillies lead all playoff teams with 19 home runs, while Arizona ranks second with 14.

Rookie Brandon Pfaadt did what Arizona veteran pitchers Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly could not – shut down the powerful Philadelphia lineup. He pitched into the sixth inning and surrendered two hits with nine strikeouts. Paul Sewald, the last of five Arizona pitchers, picked up the win on Ketel Marte’s walk-off RBI single in the bottom of the ninth inning.

-First pitcher in MLB #postseason history with back-to-back starts allowing 0 runs and 0 walks.
-Youngest starting pitcher in #Dbacks history with 9+ strikeouts in a playoff start
-7th-most strikeouts by a rookie in a postseason game

What a day for Brandon Pfaadt. pic.twitter.com/n6off9Yi7D

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) October 20, 2023

The Phillies are tied with the Texas Rangers for the MLB postseason lead with 47 runs scored. Philadelphia has a slugging percentage of .533. The last team to post a slugging percentage over .500 in the postseason is the 2020 New York Yankees.

The Phillies’ odds to win the series moved from -920 to -425 after the Game 3 loss, with the series odds for the Diamondbacks going from +570 to +325.

When looking at the odds for the baseball playoffs, Philadelphia has the best odds to win the World Series even after the odds moved from +110 to +150 after Game 3. Arizona’s championship odds went from +450 to +1000 since the series started.

Starting Pitchers

Cristopher Sanchez (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Joe Mantiply (2-0, 9.00)

Sanchez is set to make his postseason debut as he did not pitch in the playoffs in 2022 when the Phillies reached the World Series.

His last appearance came on Sept. 30, when he pitched a hitless inning with one strikeout in an 11-4 loss to the New York Mets. One concerning statistic for Phillies fans is that Philadelphia lost five of the last six games that Sanchez pitched. He has also allowed at least one home run in seven of his last 10 games.

Sanchez did not pitch against Arizona during the regular season. His last outing versus the Diamondbacks did not go well as he gave up two hits and five runs while retiring just two batters in a 13-7 loss on Aug. 29, 2022.

Quick, a show of hands of all of those who had Mantiply as Arizona’s leader in games won during the 2023 postseason? OK, he is actually tied with staff ace Zac Gallen, but you get the idea.

Mantiply picked up two wins in relief as he has matched his win total from the regular season.

Before allowing three hits and three runs while issuing two walks all while retiring just one batter in the 10-0 loss in Game 2, Mantiply had pitched 2⅔ innings in the postseason without allowing a run or a hit.

In his lone appearance against the Phillies in the regular season, Mantiply surrendered six hits and four runs in three innings in a 15-3 loss.

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Harper Could Be Best MLB Prop Bet

The biggest question surrounding Philadelphia Phillies slugger Bryce Harper is how many pitches will he get to hit. He has been walked four times in the first three games of the National League Championship Series and 11 times in nine postseason games in 2023.

In the first three games following a Philadelphia loss in last year’s playoffs, Harper was 3-for-8 with a double, two home runs, two runs scored and five RBIs. The Diamondbacks would like to pitch around Harper but with the way his teammates are swinging the bats, that is a risky proposition. Harper walked twice, stole a base and scored Philadelphia’s lone run in Game 3.

The last time the Phillies were coming off a loss in the postseason, Harper hit a pair of home runs in a 10-2 win over Atlanta that pushed the Phillies a game away from taking the series. While we are not predicting another multi-homer game, these are the types of settings that Harper embraces.

MLB Pick: Philadelphia’s Bryce Harper to go over 1½ total bases

All Hands On Deck?

Ten pitchers got called into action in Game 3 as the Diamondbacks treated the contest as a must-win game as falling behind 3-0 to the defending National League champions would have been a little too much to overcome.

It seems unlikely that too much will be asked of Phillies’ closer Craig Kimbrel after he needed 24 pitches to retire only one batter. The other relief pitchers should be good to go in Game 4.

With Mantiply making his fourth start of the season and Sanchez throwing for the first time in three weeks, don’t look for much from either starting pitcher. Both teams will have aces ready to roll in Game 5 so look for plenty of pitching changes in this game.

MLB Pick: Phillies, Diamondbacks Over 9½