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NL West Fight Between Dodgers and Giants is the Headliner

With about a month left to go in the 2021 MLB season, the race toward the postseason is in its final stretch. While the American League Central and National League Central are essentially decided already — the Chicago White Sox and Milwaukee Brewers each have leads of 9½ games or more — there is plenty of intrigue left in the remaining four divisions where multiple teams are in position to potentially take the crown. There is still plenty of value to be had with some of the MLB odds for division futures, so it’s worth looking into each race on its own in order of their competitiveness.

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers -250

San Francisco Giants +200

It doesn’t get much better than this. The Giants lead the Dodgers by a game heading into Saturday play after a 3-2 victory in 11 innings on Friday. This three-game series is the final clash between rivals that have been running away with the NL West for what feels like months already. They’ve been the best teams in baseball and it’s only fitting that this is the tightest division race going.

last-of-the-division-races-sep-03-2021
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images/AFP

The BetUS Sportsbook figures that the Dodgers will prevail because of their ridiculously deep lineup and elite front-end starting pitching. The team that is ahead next week will have a headstart as it will have the tiebreaker. The Giants have won nine of the first 17 meetings.

The rest-of-season strength of schedule will also be critical and it likely favors the Dodgers as well. Los Angeles benefits from having six games left with the last-place Arizona Diamondbacks, but the Los Angeles Dodgers also have series left against the St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, and Brewers, all of whom have been playing good baseball lately. They also have six games remaining against the tough Padres and three games at Coors Field, where the Colorado Rockies have been surprisingly good this season.

The Giants have 10 games left with the Padres and six games in Denver against the Rockies. They do get the Diamondbacks and rebuilding Chicago Cubs but only for three games apiece. A three-game set with the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves won’t be easy either. So, while the thought of getting 2-1 odds on San Francisco to win a currently-tied division is nice, a lot will need to break the Giants’ win if they are going to edge such a dominant Dodgers team.

NL East

Atlanta Braves -250

A flurry of trade deadline pickups helped the Braves not only withstand the crushing loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. and other key injuries but also take over the NL East and build up a sizable lead. But, a recent skid has shrunk the Braves’ lead from 5½ games to 2 games in less than a week as the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have gotten hot while Atlanta has gone cold.

A two-game lead with a month to play is essentially nothing, especially considering how the Braves still have a three-game series with both the Phillies and Mets in the final week of the season. Atlanta has a favorable strength of schedule upcoming, though, with a 12-game stretch against the Rockies, Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins, and Rockies again. Then, it gets tougher as the Braves take on the Giants, Padres, Phillies and Mets to end the season — with a four-game series against the Diamondbacks sandwiched between.

As far as MLB picks go, the Braves seem like a decent one to hold off both Philadelphia and New York but there’s a reason this division has been one of the worst in baseball this season, and that’s because no team can ever truly pull away. Atlanta should be able to control its own destiny by beating up on the bad teams but that’s always easier said than done once September rolls around. Betting online on a -250 division favorite with such a small lead is a tough call, though.

Philadelphia Phillies +200

The Phillies have done a great job of taking care of business against lowly opponents. Philadelphia still has the Rockies, Cubs, Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Marlins again in the coming weeks. Among the Phillies’ remaining foes, only the Brewers, Mets, and Braves are above .500 or at least near it.

Philadelphia’s issue is health. The Phillies will be without Rhys Hoskins and possibly Zach Eflin for the rest of the season, and they cannot afford any more losses to a starting rotation that’s hanging on by a thread. They’re a good bet at +200 considering how well they’ve played lately and the weak upcoming opponents they have, but there are a lot of question marks surrounding them right now.

New York Mets +750

The Mets somehow find themselves only four games behind Atlanta despite a recent 2-11 stretch against the Dodgers and Giants. A recent surge against the Nationals and Marlins, coupled with the Braves hitting a tough part of their schedule, helped the Mets cut into their deficit and eight more games against Washington and Miami should continue that trend.

But, after this soft slate of games, the going gets tough for the Mets. They take on the New York Yankees, Cardinals, Phillies, Boston Red Sox, and Brewers before one final series against the Marlins and the Braves. The Mets need to play nearly perfect baseball against the bad teams in their division and they need the Braves and Phillies to cede a bunch of ground while they do it. They also need to play well above-.500 against the playoff teams they face in that stretch. It’s a very tall task for a Mets team that has struggled to score runs all season, even when healthy. Their +750 may not be lofty enough to warrant that uphill climb.

AL East

Tampa Bay Rays -1400

With a 6½-game lead over the Yankees, the Rays have a pretty big cushion. Tampa Bay’s strength of schedule the rest of the way is a potential concern, though, as the Rays have six games left with the explosive Toronto Blue Jays and three games with the Houston Astros. They also have a three-game series remaining with each team chasing them in the standings, the Yankees and Red Sox.

Tampa Bay has a bunch of games remaining against non-playoff foes, most notably seven games versus the Detroit Tigers. The Rays also open up a weekend series with the Minnesota Twins tonight and have a three-game set against the lowly Marlins toward the end of the month. But, they have no more games with the Orioles, against whom they went 18-1 this season.

Tampa Bay leads the season series with both the Yankees and Red Sox 9-7 so, with three Rays-Yankees and three Rays-Red Sox left, sweeps by New York and/or Boston would swing the tiebreakers.

New York Yankees +650

The Yankees’ division chances look a lot worse than they did before New York lost four straight games to the Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels this week. But, with just six games left against current playoff teams — the Rays and Red Sox — New York could roll off another big winning streak to put pressure on Tampa Bay.

New York has nine games left against cellar-dwellers, six with the Orioles, and three with the Texas Rangers. They also have a game against the Twins, a three-game rivalry series with the .500 Mets, and three games against the barely hanging-on Cleveland Indians. What could make or break the Yankees’ season are the seven games they have left against the Blue Jays, who are tough to beat when their top sluggers are healthy.

If any team can get hot in a hurry, it’s the Yankees, especially as their starting pitching recovers from injury. It’s tough to expect them to make up so much ground so quickly, but it’s possible. As far as MLB lines go, this isn’t a bad value play.

Boston Red Sox +2800

Being 8 games off the pace in a division they led for the entire month of July is a tough place to be for Boston. The Red Sox went from up a half-game on July 31 to down 10 games on Sept. 1. Consecutive wins over the Rays in Tampa have made things better but this is still a monumental climb for a Red Sox team reeling from injury, COVID issues, and general regression.

Boston’s rest-of-season strength of schedule is a mixed bag, as their nine games against the Orioles and Washington Nationals are counterbalanced by the three games apiece with the Rays, Yankees, Chicago White Sox, and Seattle Mariners (plus Cleveland and the Mets). This is not an easy group of opponents to have down the stretch run so the slim chance of a Boston comeback is accurately priced at +2800.

AL West

Houston Astros -1400

The AL West race is similar to the AL East race, as the Astros are still the heavy favorites to come away on top. Houston is 5½ games up on the A’s and 6½ games up on the Mariners in a division the Astros have led since the middle of June and seemed poised to hang onto. Despite injury absences for Alex Bregman and a good portion of their expected starting rotation, the Astros keep winning behind a remarkably balanced lineup, a productive rotation, and a reinforced bullpen.

Houston benefits from an easy late-season strength of schedule, which includes a 14-game stretch against the Angels, Rangers, Diamondbacks, and Angels again. The Astros do have tough three-game series with the Padres and Rays as well as nine games against the teams behind them in the division (six with the A’s and three with the Mariners).

From a season series perspective, Houston can clinch the tiebreakers over Oakland (the Astros lead 9-4) and Seattle (the Astros lead 9-7) with just one head-to-head win.

Oakland Athletics +650

The A’s closed to within 2½ games of the Astros in mid-August before a six-game losing streak made the division title seem like an impossibility. They’ve climbed back into the mix but considering how inconsistent Oakland’s offense has been and how good Houston is, the A’s will need a lot to break right in their direction.

Also, Oakland has a pretty difficult schedule to close out the regular season. First, the A’s have back-to-back series against the Blue Jays and White Sox before a crucial nine-game stretch against lesser competition (the Rangers, Kansas City Royals, and Angels) in which Oakland needs to go at least 6-3. Then, it’s in the division for the rest of the season, with alternating series against Seattle and Houston for the final 13 games. There isn’t much room for error there and, with a pretty big deficit to make up, +650 might not be enough juice to take the A’s.

Seattle Mariners +1800

Like the Red Sox, the Mariners are longshots to catch up to the division leader. Few expected Seattle to be over .500 at this point in the season, so it’s impressive that the Mariners have divisional odds in September. But, they likely aren’t good enough to even leapfrog Oakland. The Mariners’ -56 run differential and remarkable 28-16 record in 1-run games are signs of a team that’s more lucky than good.

Still, Seattle can make a late-season run, in large part due to a soft rest-of-season slate. The Mariners have six games left against both the Diamondbacks and Angels, plus three games remaining with the Royals. They have a vital three-game road series against the Astros coming up in which Seattle desperately needs a series win or sweep, and a couple of games against the Red Sox too. The Mariners also have seven games left to play against the A’s, which very well could decide who finishes in second.

The Mariners are fun and will be a team to watch as their prospects develop but 2021 is too early for them to seriously challenge Houston and a 6½ game gap with only three head-to-head matchups left is too big for Seattle to close.

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