Contents

Mariners to Level Series vs Underdog Astros, Sept. 26

· Sep 26 - 5 minutes read

Justin Verlander looked every bit the part of the former Cy Young Award winner and future Hall of Famer when he pitched visiting Houston to victory in the season opener against Seattle. The MLB betting lines favor the Mariners to even the series on Tuesday.

The Astros snapped a three-game losing streak and handed Seattle its fourth straight loss. The Astros now lead the Mariners by 1½ games in the battle for the final playoff spot in the American League. With Texas also winning on Monday, Houston was not able to close the gap in the American League West race.

Mariners to Level Series vs Underdog Astros, Sept. 26

Seattle won eight of the first 11 meetings between the teams this season. However, the Mariners have split the four games played at home. Just two of those games have been decided by one run. Don’t expect another five-run margin when the teams get together on Tuesday night.

When looking at the MLB playoff odds, Houston’s odds to make the playoffs went from -115 to -260 after the win in the series opener. The playoff odds for the Mariners moved from -120 to +160.

Starting Pitchers

Cristian Javier (9-4, 4.64 ERA) vs. George Kirby (11-10, 3.58)

Javier’s 4.64 ERA is more than a run higher than his previous season high due to some struggles in June and July. In his last two starts, he has allowed eight hits and four runs (three earned). He has only pitched past the fifth inning once in his last nine starts, although the Astros are 6-3 in those games.

In his previous start against Seattle, Javier allowed three hits and three runs with eight strikeouts in seven innings in his longest start of the season during a 6-4 win on May 5.

After a solid showing in August, when he had a 2.60 ERA in four starts, Kirby is 1-2 with a 5.64 ERA over his four starts in September. He has allowed at least one home run in each of his last six starts.

In his lone start versus Houston this season, Kirby surrendered six hits and one run with nine strikeouts in 6⅔ innings in a 5-1 win on July 6.

Raleigh, Alvarez Could Be Best MLB Prop Bets

A quick look at the MLB stats shows that Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh is 2-for-6 with a home run in his career against Javier. While he is just 3-of-17 during Seattle’s four-game losing streak, he has scored three runs during that time. He is priced at -105 to score a run during Tuesday’s game after going 0-for-4 with two strikeouts in the series opener. Raleigh has had his issues with Houston pitching this season but perhaps this is the night when that all changes

There might be more value with the +135 moneyline for Eugenio Suarez to score a run for the Mariners. He is second on Seattle with seven runs scored against Houston this season and leads the team with eight RBIs versus the Astros.

Yordan Alvarez has two home runs and four extra-base hits in seven games against the Mariners in 2023. So when considering the best prop bets tonight, take a look at the odds for Alvarez to go over 1½ total bases. Alvarez has seven home runs and 13 extra-base hits in 22 games in September.

MLB Pick: Cal Raleigh to score a run (-105)

MLB Pick: Yordan Alvarez to go over 1½ total bases (+118)

Go With Mariners to Even the Series

While it is not a must-win scenario for Seattle, it certainly feels that way.

If Seattle falls to the Astros on Tuesday, the Mariners would be 2½ games out of the final playoff spot with five games left – and the last four contests are against the division-leading Texas Rangers.

All three hits for the Mariners on Monday came from the Nos. 8 and 9 hitters so look for more from the run producers in a huge game for Seattle. After being overwhelmed against Verlander in the series opener, there should be more good pitches to hit against Javier.

After the teams scored 13 runs in the two previous matchups, just six runs came across the plate on Monday as the teams combined to go 2-for-8 with runners in scoring position. Look for more offense this time around. The total is set at 7½ and that seems rather attainable based on the recent results of the starting pitchers.

The Astros and Mariners and Astros are sixth and seventh among American League teams when it comes to the percentage of games finishing over the total.

Even though the MLB odds show that the Astros are 25-7 as a road underdog while Seattle is just 25-39 as a home favorite, we’re expecting Seattle to rise to the occasion in a huge matchup.

When it comes to the MLB playoff odds, Houston (+900) has the fifth-best odds to win the World Series. Seattle comes in 11th in the championship odds at +2800.

MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners (-140)

Betting Odds Calculator