Mets and Braves for All the Marbles
The New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves enter their highly-anticipated three-game series this Friday in Atlanta, separated by one game in the National League East Division. The Mets hold the lead thanks to their walk-off win over the Miami Marlins Wednesday, the same day the Braves lost to the Washington Nationals to fall out of a tie for the lead. The winner of the division gets the coveted bye into the division series. The Braves will be vying for their 18th division title since moving to the East in 1993. The Mets have won two over that span. “It’s going to be huge, it’s pretty much deciding the division,” Mets pitcher Drew Smith told the media. “I’m sure it is going to be as close to a playoff atmosphere as you can get.”
Fried vs deGrom
Getting even with the Mets before the series’ final two games will be huge for the Atlanta Braves, and there is no one better to take them there than Max Fried, who was pushed back a day to be able to start in this spot. The 28-year-old lefty is 27-11 with a 2.84 ERA in his career at Truist Park, including a win on Aug. 18th over the Mets and Jacob deGrom. Fried has faced the Mets four times this season, going 2-2 while allowing at least two earned runs in every start. Fried will be opposed once again by deGrom, who was brilliant in August (1.98 ERA) after returning from a shoulder injury but has a 4.50 ERA in September and recently surrendered five runs to the lowly Oakland A’s. The 34-year-old fanned 12 Braves while allowing one hit over 5.2 innings on Aug. 7th, but the Braves returned the favor two starts later by beating him with three runs. Saturday’s pitching matchup of the Mets’ Max Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young award winner, vs. the Braves Kyle Wright, the only 20-game winner in the majors, is also very enticing.
Braves Have Edge in the Bullpen
The offenses, which feature the Mets’ Pete Alonso and the Braves’ Austin Riley, who have combined for 77 home runs, are evenly matched, ranking 3-4 in runs per game, leaving the bullpens as possibly the deciding factor in the series. The Braves have had one of the top bullpens all season, ranking third in fWAR (7.3), and the unit has been lights out in September, posting a 1.57 ERA, which is a half-point better than the next team. The Braves have held the opposition to a .196 average on balls in play in September. The Mets rank 26th of 30 teams during the month with a .324 average against balls in play. Raisel Iglesias has yet to allow a run during the month, while A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee have permitted just one run each for the Braves. The New York Mets’ relievers have struggled to a 3.86 ERA in September with a home run to fly ball rate of 12.6%. Adam Ottavino, closer Edwin Diaz and Smith have been mostly fine, but Trevor Williams and Seth Lugo have combined to allow 15 earned runs during the month.
Mets vs Braves Head-to-Head
The Mets are 9-7 against the Braves this season, but only three of the wins have come at Truist Park. New York is 22-27 all-time at Truist Park, which opened in 2017.
The Mets and the Braves have a chance to give the NL East its first 100-win team since the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves have had five 100-win seasons since 1996, the latest in 2003. The Mets have to go back to 1988 to find their last 100-win campaign.
Mets vs Braves Game Information
- Game: Mets (98-58) vs Braves (97-59)
- Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
- Day/Time: Friday, Sept. 30th, 7:20 p.m. ET
- Mets vs Braves Live stream: MLB.tv
Mets vs Braves Betting Lines
|Team||Run Line||Moneyline||Total||Team Total|
|New York Mets
J. deGrom -R
M. Fried -L
The odds in this chart are based on the time of publication. They are subject to change.
Mets vs Braves Prediction
The Braves are slight underdogs but are 5-0 in Fried’s last five games as a home underdog. The cover has been achieved in 10 of the 16 games between these teams this season.
“The odds and predictions in the article are based on time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.”