The New York Mets are clawing their way back toward the NL East lead and looking for their third straight win against the Colorado Rockies on Saturday. New York is 7-3 in its previous 10 games. Meanwhile, the Rockies are in last place in the NL West and have the worst run differential (-53) in the entire National League.
The MLB odds list the Mets as heavy road favorites of -200 on the moneyline and a betting total of 11 runs.
Mets Worst Road Team ATS
The Mets may be gaining steam in their hunt for the NL East title, but they remain the worst road team regarding MLB betting. At 11-19 against the spread, the Mets have an abysmal -30.11% return on investment when playing on the road. With a 2-8 record against the MLB spread in their last 10 games, the Mets are a risky wager when playing away from home.
The Rockies continue their season-long downward spiral with a 4-6 record in their last 10 games and a .423 winning percentage. They have a terrible run differential of -53 and the fourth-worst overall record in the MLB.
Colorado’s betting record isn’t any more impressive, with a 24-27 record against the spread and a return on investment of -9.20%. These are better numbers than the Mets, but not by much.
Justin Verlander (2-2, 3.60) vs Chase Anderson (0-0, 1.15)
Justin Verlander’s debut with the Mets hasn’t gone to plan, and the future Hall of Famer has begun to show his age. However, Verland is coming off his best start after three-hitting the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday over eight innings. The Mets are 0-3 ATS in his previous three starts, and Verlander will need to find his stroke soon if the Mets hope to challenge the Braves.
justin verlander 🤝 every basbeall fan
hates espn pic.twitter.com/PG6wmYxROT
— dianna (@runwildkian) May 22, 2023
Chase Anderson will make his third start for the Rockies after an early-season trade from the Tampa Bay Rays. In 10⅔ innings in Colorado, Anderson is 1-1 ATS with a 1.15 ERA. My issue with Anderson is he doesn’t strike out many batters and allows far too many hits. His K/BB rate as a starter is 4/3, while he’s allowed nine hits in 10⅔ innings. With sketchy peripherals, the Rockies are a risky MLB bet with Anderson on the bump.
Mets vs Rockies Head-to Head
The Mets are already down 1-2 in 2023 to the Rockies but sport a 7-2 record when we include last season’s results. However, regarding our MLB picks, the Rockies are on a four-game ATS winning streak as underdogs against the spread.
It’s hard to argue that the Mets have a better roster and make sense as a wager on Saturday. But between their road ATS record and poor results against Colorado, the Rockies are shaping up to be a steal on the MLB lines as underdogs.
Mets vs Rockies Game Information
- Game: Mets (27-25) vs Rockies (22-30)
- Location: Coors Field, Denver, CO
- Day/Time: Saturday, May 27, 9:10 p.m. ET
- Mets vs Rockies Live Stream: MLB.tv
Mets vs Rockies Betting Lines
The Under is 6-2 in the last eight games between these teams, and with Verlander on the mound, I like this game to fall below the 11-run total. Coors is notorious for high scores, but Verlander has a .137 batting average in Denver, with two runs allowed in 53 plate appearances.
Pick: Under 11 (-110)
I think the Mets will eke out a win on Saturday, but with -200 odds, there isn’t much meat on the bone. Considering the Mets have been so poor on the road, I’m willing to take a shot with the home team to pull off a game-one upset. But don’t bet the farm.
Pick: Rockies +170
Considering the Mets have the worst road record ATS in the MLB, I will fade them in this spot and wager on the Rockies to upset New York and Verlander at +120.
Pick: Rockies +1½ (+120)