Dodgers’ Division Hopes Fading
Facing Uphill Climb, Los Angeles Needs to Win Every Game
In most years, a 103-56 record heading into the final weekend of the regular season would guarantee a team the top record in either the American League or National League and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. However, the National League West is not like most divisions.
Despite a spectacular season, the Los Angeles Dodgers find themselves two games behind the San Francisco Giants in the NL West with only three games left to play. It doesn’t matter that the Dodgers have won four games in a row or that they have gone 40-13 since acquiring Max Scherzer and Trea Turner at the trade deadline. That’s because the Giants, who have led the division for most of the season, simply don’t lose either. San Francisco is 40-15 since the trade deadline and is on a six-game win streak of its own.
These two teams have established themselves as the clear cream of the crop not only in the division and the NL, but in all of baseball. It just so happens that they play in the same division so one team gets to cruise to the NL Division Series and the other has to play the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Wild Card game.
The Giants held serve with a walk-off win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday night and they’ll take on the fading San Diego Padres this weekend while the Dodgers play host to the NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers. Clayton Kershaw goes for Los Angeles against Milwaukee’s Eric Lauer in the opener on Friday night. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is at 10:10 p.m ET. The BetUS Sportsbook has the Dodgers as -230 moneyline favorites and as -110 favorites on the runline. The Brewers are +190 moneyline underdogs and -110 underdogs on the runline. Current MLB lines have the over/under at eight runs.
Kershaw Still Looks Like Kershaw
When Kershaw has been on the mound, he has been as effective as ever and has actually increased his strikeout rate to 10.7 punchouts per nine innings, his highest mark since the 2015 season. His 3.38 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP certainly plays, as does his consistent ability to manage a game and keep opposing hitters guessing. He’s as tough a competitor as there is in baseball and he still has a lot left in the tank at 33 years old.
The issue is that Kershaw has been held to 21 starts (and 120 innings) due to recurring forearm inflammation and elbow soreness in his pitching arm, with the vast majority of those appearances coming in April, May and June. After an abbreviated start on July 3, he went on the injured list and didn’t return until September. While he has mostly pitched well since being activated, he hasn’t gone more than five innings and 74 pitches in any of his three starts this month so it remains to be seen how much the Dodgers will allow him to go on Friday and in the postseason.
With that said, look for Kershaw to give the Dodgers five solid innings before turning the game over to a rested Los Angeles bullpen that will have most of its top arms available. If you’re betting online, take the Dodgers on the runline in a must-win game against a team coasting for the playoffs.
Lauer Could Be Reined In
The NLDS is scheduled to start next Friday, which is when the Milwaukee Brewers will begin their series with the Atlanta Braves. Even though Lauer is having a great season — 2.93 ERA, a strikeout per inning, .211 opponent batting average — Milwaukee’s rotation is so good that he might be deployed out of the bullpen against Atlanta instead of as a fourth starter. Of course, that’s just speculation, but with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta slated for starts in the first three games, Lauer and Adrian Houser might be relegated to relief duty.
Milwaukee could opt to save Lauer and/or Houser to start a Game 4 (if necessary) but bullpen usage is more likely, especially now that the Brewers will be without Devin Williams. So, Lauer might not be asked to make a 90-plus pitch start on Friday in preparation for a potential relief role. That would certainly benefit the Dodgers as Craig Counsell likely won’t lean too heavily on his top-end bullpen arms because this is a meaningless game for his team.
The MLB odds, which are highly favoring the Dodgers, might be taking this into account. They’re also factoring in that Los Angeles is at home, where the Dodgers are 55-23, and playing great baseball down the stretch while the Brewers kind of limped into their division title.
Tough to Go Against Los Angeles
With the Giants’ magic number to clinch at 2, the Dodgers will be eliminated from division contention if: (1) they lose one more game and the Giants win one more game; (2) they lose two more games regardless of what the Giants do; or (3) the Giants win two more games.
So, their backs are up against the proverbial wall and while Los Angeles will at the very worst play host to the Wild Card game against the Cardinals, it could very well be eliminated from the playoffs entirely after nine innings. That makes Friday’s game, and the rest of this series, so important to a Dodgers team that is finally pretty healthy across the board.
When making MLB picks, it’s really hard not to back such a deep and explosive team that is playing so well. The Brewers don’t need this game at all and will be more focused on getting out of Chavez Ravine as healthy as possible instead of trying to play spoiler. Take Los Angeles on the runline, even without the juice.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ runs (-110)
