MLB Betting: Nationals vs Pirates Tops NRFI/YRFI Plays for 9/5

· Sep 05 - 5 minutes read

Irvin-Falter matchup presents a RIFI bet opportunity.
Soaring Padres go for sweep behind Perez at Petco.
Read on for how to handle these games at BetUS Sportsbook.

There were some absolutely wild first innings on Wednesday night, some of which came out of nowhere and torpedoed some of our NRFI/YRFI MLB picks. In all, 11 of the 15 games saw runs come across in the first inning, including nine in Cincy, five in Anaheim, four in New York and four in Atlanta. All that on a night with a no-hitter, too.

MLB Betting: Nationals vs Pirates Tops NRFI/YRFI Plays for 9/5 — Jake Irvin #27 of the Washington Nationals/Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images/AFP

9-run first inning‼️ pic.twitter.com/oZXL1fOPAz

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) September 4, 2024

It should be a bit quieter with just a few evening affairs on Thursday, two of which we’ve isolated for some RIFI wagers. Make sure to check out our expert picks as well.

Jesse Winker brings home four with one GRAND swing 😤 pic.twitter.com/9nanIkClnX

— MLB (@MLB) September 4, 2024

2 NRFI/YRFI Plays for Sept. 5

1. Nationals vs Pirates: Bailey goes for the Buccos

The great thing about MLB bets – or any for that matter – is that you don’t need everyone to be playing a game that matters all that much. This Nationals-Pirates series has little pizzazz, but there’s a chance to pounce on the opener between Jake Irvin and Bailey Falter.

Falter goes first as he tries to recover from a tough August in which he had a 6.53 ERA. Those dog days can make it difficult for pitchers, and we’re seeing that all over the place right now. And after allowing two first-inning runs at Cleveland his last time out, Falter’s ERA in that frame sits at 6.65.

The 27-year-old has been a tad better at home this year, though, and he’ll be up against a Washington lineup that has a total of 13 runs during its current 1-3 stretch while hitting .230. The Nationals score in the first inning at a lower rate (18.71%) than anyone and they’re even worse on the road (14.29).

We give Bailey Falter a chance to buck his recent trends, at least for a few innings.

As for Irvin, he has also struggled a bit as the innings total has ticked up. But like Falter at home, Irvin has been a better pitcher on the road (3.59 ERA). Unlike Falter, he’s been quite good in the first inning all year (2.57 ERA) and will be facing a lineup in Pittsburgh that ranks last in the majors in first-inning OPS (.592).

This isn’t Cy Young against Walter Johnson here, but these offenses present an opportunity to go against the grain and side with the hurlers.

Bet on Nationals-Pirates First Inning to Score – NO

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2. Tigers vs Padres: Mize won’t tame Padres

A Fernando Tatis Jr. walk-off hit gave the Padres two wins in as many nights to start this 1984 World Series rematch. Jack Morris and Eric Show…er…Casey Mize and Martin Perez will be on the mound for the finale as San Diego goes for a sweep.

FERNANDO TATIS JR. IS BACK ‼️ #WALKOFF pic.twitter.com/POwg2fxm4C

— MLB (@MLB) September 5, 2024

Perez has been just fine as a Padre, going 2-0 with a 3.41 ERA in six starts. But he’s been a bit choppy the last three times out, giving up 18 hits and seven walks in only 13⅓ innings, and he’s allowed at least one home run in every start with San Diego.

So while the overall numbers since he was acquired are pretty good, he’s still a pretty hittable guy with an overall WHIP at 1.535. Similarly, some of his first-inning numbers are pretty good (2.45 ERA), but he’s issued 12 walks and hit two batters in his 22 opening frames. That ain’t pretty, and the Tigers – who are ninth in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage (29.29) – have the ability to strike early.

In fact, they did it against Perez in an earlier encounter while he was still with the Pirates.

Mize has the difficult task of trying to tame a San Diego lineup that is clicking on all cylinders. The fact that he has a 7.94 ERA in the first inning this year means it probably won’t go well early on.

Bet on Tigers-Padres First Inning to Score – YES

Question Of The Day

Are there any MLB news items that might impact wagering this weekend?

Keep an eye on the Yankees’ bullpen situation. It’s a bit murky and the club is slumping at a bad time, so expect Aaron Boone to try to be creative. Not sure if that’s his strong suit, but pressure is mounting in the Bronx to kick this team into gear.