MLB Betting: Picking Today’s NRFI/YRFI Plays 9/3
- Get the best MLB odds for today’s baseball games
- Milwaukee is inching closer to clinch the NL Central
- Spring into action with Rays vs Twins in Tampa
- Read on on how to approach these games before heading to BetUS Sportsbook for some first-inning bets.
We took a couple on the chin with yesterday’s bet suggestions, but it was a limited slate and we didn’t have a ton to choose from. We’re bullish on a full schedule of games to choose from Tuesday night and know that you’ll hit paydirt with these MLB picks.
3 NRFI/YRFI Plays for Sept. 3
1. Cardinals vs Brewers: Civale Dominant at Home
Milwaukee will be the first team to clinch a division, moving closer to that goal with a 9-3 win over St. Louis to begin this series on Monday. The Brewers have won six of seven while giving loads of run support to their staff.
That’s what Aaron Civale hopes for when he toes the slab for the hosts. He’s had plenty of shake moments this season and we’ve often turned to him for an easy YRFI MLB prediction, but there’s reason for optimism with the 29-year-old righty.
Since joining Milwaukee in early July, Civale has quietly been excellent at home. He’s 3-1 with a 1.45 ERA in five starts at Miller Par….er…American Family Field, posting a tidy 1.00 WHIP along the way. The Northeastern product has also been pretty solid in the first inning as a Brewer, lowering his ERA in that frame down to 3.46 ERA.
Facing a Cardinals unit that’s 26th in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage (21.74) should allow Civale to start strong in a place he loves.
The second part of the equation is tricky, as we have veteran Steven Matz coming off the injured list after four months with a back injury. He had a 6.18 ERA when he hit the shelf, but the sample size was small.
Matz handled the first inning just fine before the injury, limiting opponents to a .182 average. Again, the sample size was limited, but we also know that the lefty likes pitching in Milwaukee, just like Civale. He’s 5-2 with a 2.89 ERA in his career against the Brewers and that figure lowers to 2.59 in Suds City.
While Milwaukee has a prolific offense, it’s been average (at best) in the first inning all year.
2. Twins vs Rays: Expect Early Zeroes, Loads of Ks With Festa, Springs
Behind a blast by Trevor Larnach that broke a fan’s face, the Twins won the opener of this series to keep pace in the AL Central. Both teams scored in the first inning of the 5-4 game, but there’s no guarantee of that happening again.
Trevor Larnach gifted a signed bat to the fan that was hit in the face by his home run. pic.twitter.com/hAbHSdWHCq
— Bobby Nightengale (@nightengalejr) September 3, 2024
To begin with, Tampa Bay gives the ball to Jeffrey Springs, who has looked the part in three of his last four starts as he rounds back into form. He struck out nine Mariners while allowing one hit in five scoreless frames his last time out, truly dominant stuff.
Springs has made 42 appearances (34 starts) over the last three years with Tommy John interrupting things, so roughly the equivalent of one full campaign and then some. In that time he’s 12-7 with a 2.47 ERA and 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings.
The Appalachian State product gave up two runs in his initial first inning this year but has been mostly clean since. The Twins are a challenge in that stanza, but Springs is up for it as he finds his groove.
On the other end of the mound matchup sits rookie David Festa, who posted his first career quality start with six innings of two-run ball against Atlanta last week. He’s now allowed two runs in 17⅔ total innings between the first and second frames, limiting opponents to an 8-for-60 (.133) showing.
The Rays are 25th in the majors in runs per first inning at home (0.40) and will need some time to get used to Festa’s strong arsenal in their first-ever encounter. As always, remember to check the latest MLB news before placing your bets!
Bet on Twins vs Rays First Inning to Score – NO
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3. Yankees vs Rangers: Rodon? More Like Rodon’t!
The Yankees are treading water lately but still clinging to that top spot in the AL East. A 12-hit attack and a solid outing by Gerrit Cole helped them to an 8-4 win in this series opener against the defending champs, who are all but cooked in the playoff race.
Andrew Heaney will be tasked with trying to stifle that dangerous New York lineup with a surging Giancarlo Stanton, who has homered in consecutive games and accomplished something pretty great on Monday. Heaney was knocked around for four runs (one on a first-inning sacrifice fly by Stanton) in 4⅔ innings at Yankee Stadium last month.
Ten seasons of 25+ homers for Giancarlo Stanton 💪 pic.twitter.com/AWAINVOq1J
— MLB (@MLB) September 3, 2024
The veteran lefty has managed the first inning okay this year (3.81), but the Yankees are always an immediate challenge. They lead the majors in first-inning OPS (.933) and rank second in first-inning scoring percentage on the road (40.0). Six different New York hitters – including Aaron Judge – have taken Heaney deep in the past.
The Yankees counter with Carlos Rodon, another popular YRFI MLB bet for us this year. He has a woeful 7.67 ERA in the first inning this year after giving up two in that frame at Washington his last time out.
Perhaps more damning for Rodon is what he’s done on the road lately. In his last seven starts away from the Bronx, dating all the way back to mid-June, he’s given up 30 runs (all earned) in 33⅓ innings. That’s good for an atrocious 8.10 ERA, a great figure for those of you who want to go all in on some first-inning runs.
Texas, of course, is fifth in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage (33.64), so Rodon has his work cut out for him.
Bet on Yankees-Rangers First Inning to Score – YES
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
Take A Look At These Other 2 MLB Special Articles
- MLB Parlay Picks 9/3: Ride Dodgers, Orioles on Moneyline.
- MLB Player Props 9/3: Fade Freeland, Fire Up Sale.
Question of the Day
Which first-inning trends would surprise most if they looked at the overall MLB picture?
Did you know the Marlins are tied for seventh in the majors in first-inning runs? It’s true. Toronto is third in first-inning doubles and last in steals, which is a quirky combination. And we remain amazed that Atlanta is second in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage at home (41.51) and second-to-last on the road (14.29).
