MLB Player Props 8/27: Fade Nola, Irvin, Mikolas

· Aug 27 - 6 minutes read

The MLB schedule is jam-packed for Tuesday night with all 30 clubs ready to take the field. Three betting choices promise an evening of thrilling action.
MLB player props are an exciting way to get in on the action, and our best bets have a stellar 146-122 record this season. Today, we’re setting our sights on three starting pitchers to fade.
See today’s MLB odds, pitchers, and best player prop bets.

We have a beautiful schedule of MLB games on Tuesday. Our consistently profitable MLB picks, which have led us to a 146-122 record this season, are here to deliver. Unfortunately, we kicked off the week with a dreaded reverse sweep, going 0-2 with our picks to begin the week, but we’re back in full force for Tuesday’s MLB games. I’m eager to bounce back in a big way.

MLB Player Props 8/27: Fade Nola, Irvin, Mikolas — Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies/Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

There are numerous choices for MLB player prop bets today. However, I’ve meticulously narrowed down the best for you based on specific criteria such as player performance, team statistics and game conditions, all backed by in-depth analysis. This ensures you’re well-informed before making your bets.

3 Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Aug. 27

1. Phillies SP Aaron Nola at Least 6 Hits Allowed (-143)

The Astros have won 13 of their last 19 games and are 58-37 since May 8, the best record in the league over this span. On Monday, I said this series with the Phillies would be the ultimate litmus test at Citizens Bank Park and they dropped the first game in extra innings.

BRYCE HARPER WALKS IT OFF! pic.twitter.com/1jsolT4pX0

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) August 27, 2024

Tonight’s pitching matchup is a pair of veteran arms and I will fade both. The Astros have the third-lowest K% and fourth-lowest BB % in the league. In other words, they put the ball in play. Yordan Alvarez is red-hot in August and I expect he and the Stros to get to Phillies starter Aaron Nola.

Nola will face an Astros lineup with the third-highest batting average in the league (.260). The 31-year-old righty has posted strong numbers again, but his advanced metrics suggest he has been shaky.

Nola is in the 32nd percentile in xBA. He has allowed at least six hits in seven consecutive starts and 10 of his last 13 overall. Houston has posted at least six hits against nine of the last 12 opposing starting pitchers. Trust Houston to stay hot. Conversely, Justin Verlander is a fade candidate to bet online tonight. My only hesitation is that his pitch count could be limited again in his second start since returning to the rotation.

Bet on Aaron Nola at Least 6 Hits Allowed (-143)

2. Cardinals SP Miles Mikolas Over 2½ Earned Runs (-145)

We backed the Padres’ powerful lineup against Kyle Gibson on Monday, and unfortunately, I went the wrong way. They tacked on seven earned runs on just five hits and we lost by the hook. They face Miles Mikolas tonight, and I expect them to jump all over him early.

Mikolas started against the Padres in April and allowed two runs on seven hits. Mikolas is far from the pitcher he was in 2022 when he posted a 3.29 ERA. He ranks in the 11th percentile in xBA and 34th in xERA this season.

The Padres bats have consistently been among the best in the bigs. Since the All-Star break, they have been third in wRC+ and batting average. They are the hottest team in the league, with a 25-9 record since the break.

Mikolas has exceeded this line in four of his last five starts and eight of 12 at home this season. I expect the Padres to continue to roll and for Mikolas to limp to the finish line in 2024. I’m riding the Friars with confidence at BetUS Sportsbook.

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3. Orioles SP Cole Irvin Over 3½ Earned Runs (+100)

“50 [HR]/50 [SB] would put him in a different category and I believe you’re going to see it.”

With Shohei Ohtani on pace to make more history, #MLBCentral discusses how impressive he is as a player. pic.twitter.com/F7IQ8U2wgH

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) August 27, 2024

I’m firing on another NL powerhouse with our next MLB pick tonight. The Dodgers began to show cracks in their armor when Mookie Betts was out of the lineup and their pitching staff suffered numerous injuries, but they have quietly been on fire since Betts returned. Many MLB bettors are excited to get action on the Padres and Diamondbacks, but I still think the Dodgers are the team to beat. The Dodgers’ lead in the NL West is three games on the Diamondbacks and four on the Padres.

Since Betts returned from the IL, the Dodgers are 9-4. LA. Tonight, they will face veteran lefty Cole Irvin. This will be the first of a three-game set between the Dodgers and Orioles.

Irvin has posted career-worse marks in xERA and xBA. The 30-year-old southpaw is in the 4th percentile in xERA (5.74) and 2nd in xBA (.296). He’s been abysmal. My only concern is that he may not go deep enough in this game, but he’s coming off an 83-pitch outing, a significant bump in pitch count from his 45-pitch count average from July.

Mookie Betts’ booming double gives the @Dodgers the lead 😤 pic.twitter.com/SfMcmWGBVa

— MLB (@MLB) August 22, 2024

The Dodgers lineup is a different beast with Betts back at the top of the order. Before Betts’ injury, the Dodgers were in the top three in wRC+, batting average and runs scored. In the two months without Betts, they dropped to ninth in wRC+, 17th in batting average and 11th in runs! They are fourth in wRC+ and batting average against left-handers. With Betts back, I’m confidently riding the Dodgers again.

Cole Irvin Over 3½ Earned Runs (+100)

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