MLB Props: Handicapping First-Inning Scoring, July 29-31

Let’s consider the latest MLB news, stats, injury reports, and MLB odds for first-inning scoring. We’ve plenty of MLB picks & predictions.

Phillies vs Pirates (Friday)

This four-game Keystone State battle continues after Philadelphia Phillies took the series opener. Bailey Falter will try to help the Phillies to a third straight win in his seventh start of the season.

The 25-year-old has allowed two earned runs in his six first innings, so he’s been pretty solid to open games. Opponents are hitting .292 in the first against him, but there’s just one extra-base hit in the lot.

Falter did give up three runs in a first-inning struggle at the New York Mets earlier in the year, but all of them were unearned. He’ll be facing a Pittsburgh Pirates crew that hasn’t scored in the first in six straight games and ranks 28th in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage (20.2).

Veteran Jose Quintana is on tap for Pittsburgh, provided he isn’t traded before the game. The lefty figures to get swapped prior to the deadline, so this could serve as an audition before a move is made.

Quintana has been excellent in the first inning, boasting a 1.89 ERA this year. Opponents are batting .179 with a measly .528 OPS in that frame, and he’s produced 20 strikeouts against just two walks.

It’s easily his best inning and the worst for the Philadelphia offense, which hits .211 in the first and is 27th in baseball in first-inning scoring percentage on the road (18.8).

These teams combined for 15 runs and 22 hits in the series opener Thursday. It’s hard to follow that up with a NRFI (No Runs First Inning) bet online, but that’s where we’re leaning.

First Inning to Score: NO

Dodgers vs Rockies (Friday)

Los Angeles Dodgers scored six runs in the first inning vs. Washington on Wednesday and had two more in the first at Colorado on Thursday (as well as four in the second). The Dodgers are scoring in bunches early and they’ll test Chad Kuhl out of the gate in this one.

Kuhl, another name bandied about in trade rumors, is never all that smooth early in games. He has a 4.50 ERA in the first inning, a 5.00 mark in the second and a 5.71 number in the third.

Kuhl’s only career shutout did come against Los Angeles earlier this year, but he had a 6.91 ERA in three starts before that and owns a 9.00 ERA in four starts since. That start vs the Dodgers sticks out like a sore thumb, and we don’t see a duplicate coming against a team that scores 39.8 percent of the time in the first, tops in the majors.

If Kuhl manages to escape the first unscathed, the Colorado Rockies will have a shot at Julio Urias, whose 4.26 ERA in the first is his worst mark among the first six innings. Five of the 15 homers he’s allowed have come in the opening inning.

Urias gave up three runs in the first inning at Coors Field in his first start of the year and his lifetime ERA there is 5.81.

First Inning to Score: YES

Guardians vs Rays (Saturday)

Zach Plesac gets the nod for Cleveland Guardians. He recently had an impressive stretch of seven straight quality starts.

The 27-year-old has since endured a rocky three-start stretch in which he’s posted a 5.93 ERA, but no runs have come in the first inning. He gave up plenty in the opening frame during some April and May struggles, but he usually starts clean.

The Tampa Bay Rays scored 15 runs over a six-game span entering Friday, so they are coming into the series in a funk offensively.

Corey Kluber will be trying to keep his former team in check when he gets the start for the Rays. His ERA in the first is 2.84 and it drops to 1.89 in the second. He has a 31-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio between those two frames, so you know the two-time Cy Young Award winner comes out dealing.

Cleveland comes into this one having played nine games in eight days out of the break. Consider fatigue as a possible factor for the Guardians when glancing at the MLB odds at the sportsbook and matching them up with Kluber.

First Inning to Score: NO

Athletics vs White Sox (Saturday)

It’s been an interesting couple of weeks for Paul Blackburn. He worked around an error to produce a scoreless inning and helped the AL win the All-Star Game, which he got to by flying on the Houston Astros charter, but followed it up with his worst start of the year.

Facing Texas on Sunday, Blackburn was torched for 10 runs in 4.1 innings, hitting two batters and watching a pair of balls sail over the fence. It was his second straight rocky outing vs the Rangers, who scored eight first-inning runs between the two matchups.

Blackburn, who gave up a run in the first in his last start against the Chicago White Sox, has a 6.63 ERA in the first overall. He does sport a 1.88 mark on the road, but Chicago’s top half of the order is rounding into shape and will present an immediate challenge.

Veteran Johnny Cueto will try to keep a solid run going when he toes the slab for the hosts. He’s given up just four runs in his 12 first innings, but they haven’t always been clean frames – opponents are hitting .283 with a .340 on-base percentage in the inning

The A’s have quietly put together a 6-1 stretch and they’ve hit 12 homers in that stretch. They are very good at scoring early on the road, ranking ninth in the majors with at least one run in the first 29.4 percent of the time.

First Inning to Score: YES

Mariners vs Astros (Sunday)

Seattle Mariners rookie George Kirby is pretty good in the first inning, sporting a 3.86 ERA. He’s also pretty good on the road (2.67). And he was pretty good his last time out, spinning five scoreless vs Texas.

However, Kirby has had a little bit of an every-other-start thing going on, and he often follows up his clean outings with ones that are a bit more challenging. The former first-round pick is at a workload level that is new to him, so he’s learning how to stay sharp without taking the mound all that much.

This will be just his second start since July 8, and it comes against a Houston Astros club that scores 42.2 percent of the time in the first at home, the best percentage in the AL.

Jake Odorizzi, who starts opposite Kirby, has had his share of first-inning issues. He has a 6.75 ERA in that frame while allowing opponents to hit .318, although they haven’t had anything but singles.

The veteran has a 4.57 ERA at home and a 5.91 mark in four starts since returning from the IL. He had a blister problem in his last outing vs Oakland, so that’s something to watch as you consider adding this to your MLB picks.

First Inning to Score: YES

Cubs vs Giants (Sunday)

The last time Carlos Rodon pitched, he made headlines not for his work on the mound, but for a dugout tantrum that led to a hurt teammate. He’ll hope for better results here against the Chicago Cubs in the finale of a four-game set.

Rodon has given up five runs in each of his last two starts, but it might be an aberration. He allowed three home runs between those two outings after giving up none in his previous seven outings, and he owns a very solid 17-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The North Carolina State product is dominant at home, allowing two runs or fewer in all seven of his starts there. The Cubs have been a pretty good first-inning offense, but their numbers in that department have been dropping like a stone of late. Also, they could have a makeshift lineup in this one if the front office sells off any veteran bats by then.

Adrian Sampson will start for Chicago. He’s had a few rocky firsts but it’s a small sample and he’s coming off his best outing of the year — a seven-inning, two-run effort vs Pittsburgh.

Sampson will face a San Francisco Giants attack that hit .183 during a recent seven-game slide and entered Friday ranked 26th in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage (22.2).

First Inning to Score: NO