Count ‘em: There have been six no-hitters in the majors. Six, with two happening on consecutive days. These are the most no-hitters in a single season since 2015 broke the record when six pitchers did it (Max Scherzer twice). But all those no-hitters took place from June onward. It’s still May.
There are several reasons why we’re seeing no-hitters so often. But the MLB betting odds are trending for this to happen more down the stretch when you factor in how early it is in the season, the constant improvement of pitchers, and some teams being inept at getting a base hit. The question becomes: who will pitch the next no-no?
Who Pitches the Next No-Hitter?
Jacob deGrom (New York Mets)
Implied Probability: 16.67%
Next Possible Opponents: Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres
The betting favorite to get the next no-hitter is the two-time NL Cy Young Award winner. DeGrom also led the NL in strikeouts in the last two seasons. His four-seam fastball is arguably the deadliest pitch in the majors although his next potential opponents are no slouches on the mound.
Corbin Burnes (Milwaukee Brewers)
Implied Probability: 14.29%
Next Possible Opponents: Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates
On the other hand, you have Corbin Burnes who is having a scorcher of a season. He set a record by striking out 40 straight batters without a walk in his first four starts this season. Unlike DeGrom, he rarely uses the four-seam fastball but instead deals a cutter that has been nigh-impossible to hit.
Corbin Burnes, Nasty 94mph Back Door Cutter. ✂️🚪 pic.twitter.com/j9ZfJ2isYh
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 25, 2021
Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees)
Implied Probability: 12.50%
Next Possible Opponents: Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins
Baseball’s richest pitcher is a top no-hitter candidate from the American League despite playing in a tough division against the Blue Jays and Red Sox, two of the four best hitting teams in the majors. Still, Cole is the favorite to win the Cy Young and leads the AL in strikeouts per walk (SO/BB) ratio.
Shane Bieber (Cleveland Indians)
Implied Probability: 10%
Next Possible Opponents: Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Seattle Mariners
The reigning AL Cy Young winner isn’t quite as dominant as last season’s Triple Crown performance, but he’s still dealing, namely with his strikeout-inducing slider. While the earlier candidates have a pitching edge over him, Bieber may get a prime opportunity against the batting-challenged Mariners.
Who Will Get No-Hit Next?
Seattle Mariners (AL)
Implied Probability: 15.4%
Batting Average: 20.2% (30th)
On-Base Percent: 28% (30th)
The offensively starved Seattle Mariners are the obvious choice to get no-hit again as they’ve already been no-hit twice this year. It may not happen against the Texas Rangers, but Seattle has been challenged at-bat for well over three seasons now and also was on the wrong side of team no-hitters both times in 2019.
Cleveland Indians (AL)
Implied Probability: 14.29%
Batting Average: 21.6% (28th)
On-Base Percent: 29% (29th)
The next logical choice is the Cleveland Indians, who, like the Mariners, have also been no-hit twice this season. Their struggling offense could manage with their next few games. But the team’s “go big or go home” mentality mostly helps their opponent’s pitchers.
New York Mets (NL)
Batting Average: 22.4% (27th)
On-Base Percent: 30.6% (20th)
The New York Mets have managed to stay atop the NL East despite some iffy batting on their end. That’s a credit to their pitching and fielding. They’ll have a couple of games in San Diego but otherwise have manageable pitchers to face in the next few weeks.