Breaking Down MLB Win Totals: American League

Houston Astros: 92½ Wins

It won’t be easy for the Houston Astros to make up for Carlos Correa’s production as their longtime shortstop signed with the Minnesota Twins. So, Houston’s lineup will take a hit even though it’s still an elite one with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Yordan Álvarez, Yuli Gurriel and Kyle Tucker.

The major issue for Houston is how the rotation will perform. Justin Verlander is coming off Tommy John surgery, Lance McCullers is dealing with a strained flexor tendon and Framber Valdez got shelled in the World Series against the Atlanta Braves. The Astros have plenty of intriguing options but most are pretty unproven.

The good thing for Houston is that they’re still the best team in the AL West and should be able to win at least 95 games again.

Pick: Over (-115)

Toronto Blue Jays: 92½ Wins

The Toronto Blue Jays might have been the best team in the AL East last season yet they somehow finished in fourth and just missed out on the playoffs. Then, as if the Blue Jays’ infield wasn’t good enough, they traded for Matt Chapman after Marcus Semien signed with the Texas Rangers. They did lose Robbie Ray in free agency but replaced him with Kevin Gausman and added Yusei Kikuchi as well.

This team is very deep at the plate and on the mound and should be the top dog in a really competitive division. The questionable bullpen and strength of schedule in the division are concerns, yet Toronto should still eclipse 92 wins with all of its star power.

Pick: Over (-115)

Chicago White Sox: 92½ Wins

The Chicago White Sox cruised to an AL Central victory last season with a 95-67 record. They’re still a really good team that shouldn’t have as many injury problems in 2022, but the rest of the division has improved. The Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins should challenge them much more than they did in 2021.

Chicago didn’t really move the needle in terms of offseason moves, but the White Sox lost Carlos Rodón to the San Francisco Giants. Still, Tony La Russa has plenty of rotation options and a really strong bullpen that makes the White Sox the division favorites. They probably aren’t a true-talent 95-win team, though the combination of the weak division and the solid pitching make Chicago’s over one of the better MLB picks you can make.

Pick: Over (-115)

New York Yankees: 91½ Wins

It has been a weird offseason for the New York Yankees, who didn’t get any of the big fishes in free agency but brought back Anthony Rizzo and picked up Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. New York didn’t make any pitching upgrades, which was pretty surprising.

The Yankees aren’t a bad team and likely will make the expanded playoffs because of how powerful their lineup is. However, they didn’t do nearly enough to improve this offseason to keep up in the AL. The Yankees went 92-70 in 2021 and are a worse team now, so 90 wins might even be a stretch.

Pick: Under (-115)

Tampa Bay Rays: 89½ Wins

It’s never a good idea to bet against the Tampa Bay Rays, even with the plethora of pitching injuries they are currently dealing with. The Rays won 100 games last season and won the brutal AL East behind ludicrous pitching depth and some major offensive breakouts — Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe and Randy Arozarena were the stalwarts.

However, they haven’t done much this offseason and still won’t have Tyler Glasnow or Shane Baz for a while. Since it’s the Rays, though, they’ll probably tread water just fine and be at the top of the division for most of the year. A full year of Franco in the majors will certainly help and there will surely be more reinforcements coming up from one of baseball’s best farm systems.

Pick: Over (-120)

Boston Red Sox: 85½ Wins

Interestingly, the MLB Vegas odds expect the Boston Red Sox to be significantly worse this season than they were in 2021. Boston won 92 games to sneak into the playoffs, where they took down the New York Yankees in the Wild Card round, stunned the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL Division Series and gave the Houston Astros a real fight in the AL Championship Series.

Boston made a big splash by signing Trevor Story and added fringe pieces to the rotation and bullpen, but won’t have Chris Sale or James Paxton for a chunk of the season, so there are a lot of question marks surrounding this team. The Red Sox probably won’t win 92 games or finish second again in the brutal AL East, yet they should win more than 84 games based on their strong lineup alone. The pitching is a real concern, however.

Pick: Over (-115)

Seattle Mariners: 84½ Wins

They didn’t make the playoffs last season, but the Seattle Mariners surprised a lot of people around baseball by winning 90 games even though they just missed the playoffs. However, Seattle benefited from a lot of unsustainable “luck” in terms of batted ball outcomes, clutch hitting and out-performance of their run differential. They might not be as fortunate in 2022.

Seattle also had a great offseason, adding Jesse Winker, Adam Frazier and Robbie Ray to an already talented core. But, the Mariners are still a really young team and aren’t ready to be a legitimate contender just yet, so they’re primed for at least a small step back.

Pick: Under (-115)

Los Angeles Angels: 84½ Wins

The perpetually disappointing Los Angeles Angels went 77-85 last season in large part due to Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon combining to play just 94 games. The Angels added Noah Syndergaard, Michael Lorenzen, Aaron Loup, Avery Bradley and Ryan Tepera to bolster a subpar rotation and bullpen, yet Los Angeles didn’t do much to improve a weak bottom half of the lineup.

Once again, Los Angeles should hover around .500 because there just isn’t much talent behind Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh. The Angels really need Syndergaard to return to form, which is a huge ask.

Pick: Under (-115)

Minnesota Twins: 80½ Wins

The Minnesota Twins had kind of a strange offseason after winning 73 games a year ago. They traded away catcher Mitch Garver, traded for starter Sonny Gray, traded away Josh Donaldson (for Garver’s replacement in Gary Sánchez and Donaldson’s replacement in Gio Urshela), and then stunned the baseball world by signing Carlos Correa.

Overall, the Twins got a lot better over the past few months and now have a really solid lineup, but they only have a few reliable starting pitchers. Also, the bullpen is kind of a patch-work effort with a few wild cards, so it’s hard to tell exactly what this team is going to be like. Minnesota is a tough team to get a read on but, with all the pitching uncertainty, the under is probably the most likely outcome.

Pick: Under (-115)

Detroit Tigers: 78½ Wins

Minnesota will have the upstart Detroit Tigers hanging with them all season. Detroit showed a lot of promise in its 77-85 campaign in 2021 and should only be better now with the young Tigers having another year of experience under their belt. Signing Javy Báez and Eduardo Rodriguez gave Detroit some much-needed established talent to go with the Tigers’ surprisingly productive lineup and a bevy of high-octane young starters.

One major question for Detroit is what 2021 No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson will bring to the table because he should be with the big league club soon. If he hits from Day One, the Tigers could really make some noise in the relatively weak AL Central. Anyway, they played great down the stretch last season and that should carry over to 2022.

Pick: Over (-115)

Cleveland Guardians: 76½ Wins

Cleveland won 80 games in its final pre-Guardians season and basically did nothing this offseason to get better. Shane Bieber is finally healthy, which is probably the most important thing for the Guardians’ success, but he won’t have a good lineup supporting him outside of José Ramírez and Franmil Reyes.

The Guardians seem likely to hover around .500 once again unless there are surprising offensive breakouts from some of Cleveland’s younger bats. It’s tough to bank on that, yet the Guardians’ pitching should make them at least competitive into the summer.

Pick: Over (-125)

Kansas City Royals: 75½ Wins

The biggest addition the Kansas City Royals might make this year could be calling up their top prospect: Bobby Witt Jr. The 2019 No. 2 overall pick destroyed Double-A and Triple-A in his first full minor league season and figures to spend most of the year in Kansas City. How he performs when he’s with the Royals could make or break Kansas City’s over/under.

The Royals added Zack Greinke — a pretty cool story since they were his first MLB team — as well as Amir Garrett, but that’s basically it. Considering how Kansas City won 74 games in 2021, the Royals need a lot of internal improvement in order to hit the over, but that’s a very big if and could be a tough task in an improved division.

Pick: Under (-115)

Texas Rangers: 74½ Wins

Fresh off a brutal 102-loss season, the Texas Rangers made two huge signings as they brought in All-Star infielders Marcus Semien and Corey Seager on long and lucrative contracts. Texas also splurged to bring in Jon Gray as the Rangers’ No. 1 starter. The issue is that there just isn’t much else on the roster of note other than those guys and the mix of talent isn’t nearly good enough to compete with the Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners and maybe even the Los Angeles Angels in the AL West.

Mitch Garver is a solid catcher and Adolis Garcia had a shockingly good rookie year, but the starting rotation isn’t deep and the bullpen is filled with question marks. Semien and Seager will rake regardless, yet they might be putting up big numbers for a really bad team.

Pick: Under (-105)

Oakland Athletics: 70½ Wins

With their recent trades of Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson and Matt Chapman, the Oakland Athletics have made their rebuilding intentions very clear. Starters Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas are also rumored to be in trade talks too. It’s disappointing but not surprising for Oakland, which always puts money right next to talent when making player personnel decisions.

That means Oakland probably won’t win 86 games again. The lineup is pretty bare at the moment — partially thanks to a plethora of free agency departures — yet the rotation and bullpen both have the potential to be pretty good. So, while the A’s aren’t a playoff contender, they likely won’t be as bad as the MLB lines might expect.

Pick: Over (-125)

Baltimore Orioles: 61½ Wins

The seemingly interminable Baltimore Orioles’ rebuild rumbles on. Baltimore won 52 games in 2021 and won’t be all that better in 2022 because the Orioles’ only offseason move of note was signing Jordan Lyles. He might even be their No. 2 starter behind John Means, which says a lot.

However, Baltimore has a strong farm system and has some really nice offensive pieces who could at least help the Orioles score runs at a decent clip. It’s a lot to predict Baltimore to improve by 10 wins while playing in baseball’s toughest division, so the under is the move here.

Pick: Under (-105)