Phillies Have Division Chance | MLB Picks

Despite a bunch of key injuries, a legendary bad bullpen, and poor defense, the Philadelphia Phillies somehow find themselves at 75-72 and two games behind the Atlanta Braves for first place in the National League East. They’re also 2½ games in back of the St. Louis Cardinals — with the Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres in between — for the second NL Wild-Card spot.

They gained critical ground on Atlanta on Friday night, when they beat the New York Mets after nearly blowing their 33rd save and the Braves lost to the San Francisco Giants (thanks to a blown save by Atlanta closer Will Smith). The Mets’ fourth straight loss pushed them 6½ games out in the division and six games out in the Wild-Card, likely sealing their fate as a non-playoff team for the fifth season in a row.

Aaron Nola, who has struggled all year, will get the start for the Phillies at Citi Field on Saturday night as he looks to bounce back from a couple of mediocre outings. The Mets will have Carlos Carrasco on the mound as they try to hold off mathematical elimination from playoff contention. First pitch from Flushing is at 7:15 p.m. ET. The BetUS Sportsbook has the Phillies as -110 moneyline favorites and as +150 favorites on the runline. MLB odds have the over/under at 7½ runs.

Nola Does Well Against Mets

Nola entered the season as the Phillies’ presumptive ace, but that role has been taken over by Zack Wheeler who has been Philadelphia’s best starter. Wheeler has been huge for the Phillies down the stretch, going 3-0 in his three September starts and allowing a total of two runs. The opposite has been true for Nola, who hasn’t won a start since late July and has been roughed up this month. He did strike out 10 Colorado Rockies in his last start but gave up three runs in 5.1 innings. The strikeouts haven’t been an issue but run prevention has.

He’s striking out over 11 batters per nine innings yet has a pedestrian 4.58 ERA on the season. Nola has allowed 24 home runs in his 163 innings which equates to 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings, his worst mark since his rookie season. His strong WHIP and FIP numbers do suggest that he’s pitching better than his overall numbers show, however.

The good news for Nola is that he’s facing the Mets, who he has pitched well against this season and throughout his career. In his last start against the Mets — on June 25 — he shut out New York for 5.1 innings and struck out 12 in a no-decision. In his career, he has a 3.20 ERA and 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings against the Mets who he has had more success facing than he has against any other NL East team.

Considering how bad Nola has been as of late, though, there is a chance he gets roughed up, even by an offense as anemic as that of the Mets. But, if you’re betting online, expect Nola to have his usual Big Apple success facing a team that doesn’t have much to play for at this point.

Carrasco Is Hittable Early

It has been kind of a lost season for Carrasco, who the Mets acquired from the Cleveland Indians in the Francisco Lindor trade. He missed basically 60% of the season with elbow soreness and a torn hamstring and, since returning, has been hit hard. Interestingly, most of the damage against Carrasco has come in the first inning of games, when he has a shocking 15.00 ERA. In all other innings, he has a 2.73 ERA.

So, the Phillies need to get to Carrasco early and often. Considering how good Philadelphia has been in the first inning this season — 30 home runs, 82 runs, team-wide .823 OPS — it’s actually a good matchup for the Phillies. They need to take advantage, though, because Carrasco looks much more like his past All-Star self once he gets the first three outs of the game.

The MLB lines clearly think the Phillies will be able to get to Carrasco. It also helps that their lineup is very lefty-dominant against a guy who has traditionally been much tougher on righties. Between Bryce Harper, Didi Gregorius, Brad Miller, and Odubel Herrera, much of Philadelphia’s attack will have a platoon advantage against Carrasco.

Phillies Thrive In Tight Games

Much has been bemoaned about the number of close games the Mets play in and lose but, when making MLB picks, you cannot overlook that factor. After losing 4-3 on Friday — their league-high 60th one-run game — New York fell to 28-32.

The Mets are now 28-32 in one-run games, but have dropped 15 of their last 17 decided by one run:https://t.co/iizTmUKd00

— WFAN Sports Radio (@WFAN660) September 18, 2021

We’ve written about this characteristic of the Mets often and it shouldn’t be overstated. On the other hand, the Phillies are 28-22 in one-run games even with one of the shakiest bullpens in baseball. The difference is that one team can’t get big hits to save its skin while the other — the Phillies — seems to get them all the time. That’s why, on a moneyline bet, the pendulum shifts in Philadelphia’s favor.