The Toronto Blue Jays are officially in “win every game the rest of the season” mode after a so-so weekend in which they split four games with the lowly Minnesota Twins.
Now, Toronto is on the outside looking in at the American League Wild Card picture, trailing the New York Yankees by two games and the Boston Red Sox by one game. The Blue Jays are a half-game up on the Seattle Mariners and 2½ games up on the Oakland Athletics.
Toronto won’t have an easy week as the Blue Jays welcome the red hot Yankees, winners of six games in a row, to Rogers Centre on Tuesday. New York is fresh off one of the more thrilling series of the season, a three-game sweep of the Red Sox in Boston. After a pretty easy win on Friday night, New York used enormous eighth-inning home runs from Giancarlo Stanton in both Saturday and Sunday’s games to stun the Boston faithful and grab control of the Wild Card race.
Hyun-Jin Ryu goes for the Blue Jays while Jameson Taillon gets the start for the Yankees in a matchup of two scuffling pitchers who are coming off stints on the injured list. First pitch from Rogers Centre is at 7:07 p.m. ET. The BetUS Sportsbook has the Blue Jays as -128 moneyline favorites while the Yankees are +118 moneyline underdogs. MLB odds have the over/under at nine runs.
Ryu Fares Well vs Yankees
The last couple weeks haven’t been kind to Ryu, who has dealt with a few injuries and pockets of ineffectiveness after pitching to a 3.22 ERA through the beginning of August. He has mixed in a few really strong outings with really bad ones, so it’s hard to tell exactly where he is at right now. He’s also coming off a short injured list stint due to a neck strain.
Prior to going on the IL, Ryu was shelled in back-to-back starts by the Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins. But, in his first September start, he twirled six shutout innings (with six strikeouts) against the Yankees, continuing a trend of Ryu pitching really well against New York and its strikeout-heavy lineup. In four starts against New York (24 innings), Ryu has a 1.88 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP.
If you’re betting online, you should back Ryu. Clearly, he has found a way to attack the Yankees in a way that uses their aggressive style against them. New York has gone through prolonged offensive slumps and that’s usually because teams have attacked the likes of Stanton, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres with chase pitches and pitches down in the strike zone where it’s tough to lift the ball.
Ryu is one of the craftier pitchers in baseball and since he can’t rely on high velocity or incredible physical ability to get batters, he has to out-smart them, which has worked well for him throughout his career.
Taillon’s Struggles Continue
Taillon’s IL stint was due to a partial tear in an ankle tendon, but he should be healed up as he returns to the mound. However, he hasn’t had much success against the Blue Jays this season. In two starts against Toronto, Taillon has a 6.75 ERA and has given up three home runs in 10.2 innings, which is a big no-no against this stacked lineup.
The former Pirate had been pitching well after the All-Star break before the Yankees went out to the West Coast at the end of August, where Taillon was hit hard by the Athletics and Los Angeles Angels in back-to-back outings. He actually pitched better in his last start before going on the IL — giving up three runs in seven innings in a 8-0 loss to the Blue Jays — but still hasn’t been nearly good enough for a New York team that needs every game it can get down the stretch.
The MLB lines are probably a little too forgiving to Taillon and the Yankees, maybe because of how well they’ve been playing lately. But, the Blue Jays might be playing the best baseball of any AL team over the past few weeks and that shouldn’t be overlooked.
Jays Make Contact, Yankees Don’t
There might not be any matchup in baseball that features more offensive firepower than this one. There are 30-plus home run hitters across the board for both teams and each lineup is filled with players who can get on base and drive in runs. The big difference between these teams isn’t the level of talent or ability, but their approaches.
The Blue Jays, in addition to being at the top of nearly every major offensive category, have the second-fewest strikeouts in baseball, with just one more than the Houston Astros. Considering that Toronto has baseball’s best OPS and slugging percentage, the Blue Jays’ ability to make contact and not give up any at-bats is so impressive and makes it that much harder to effectively shut them down.
On the other hand, the Yankees have the sixth-most strikeouts in baseball and it”s their clear weakness. They hit a lot of home runs and draw a lot of walks but they swing and miss a ton, which can take them right out of big innings quickly. New York is also tied with the Washington Nationals for the most ground-ball double plays in baseball, which is another surefire way to attack the Yankees. They get on base a lot but also give up a lot of outs.
If you’re making MLB picks, you should take the Blue Jays straight up. They might be two games behind the Yankees in the standings, but they’re a better all-around team and have arguably the best and most efficient offense in baseball. There’s just too much to like.
