NRFI and YRFI Picks 8/14: Feast on Keller, Perez for Pirates vs Padres

One of the fastest-growing MLB betting markets is the YRFI (Yes Runs in the First Inning) and NRFI (No Runs in the First Inning). This short, thrilling bet becomes a sweat early on in a baseball game.

When handicapping for a YRFI or NRFI, it’s essential to research the starting pitchers and the potential lineups they will face. Here are my best YRFI and NRFI MLB bets today.

YRFI/NRFI Pick for Aug. 14

YRFI: San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates

For our YRFI bet, we’re heading to the West Coast when the San Diego Padres look to complete the sweep of the Pirates and hand Pittsburgh its 10th consecutive loss! The Padres will have veteran southpaw Martin Perez on the mound and the Pirates will have veteran right-hander Mitch Keller on the bump.

Most of you may not know this, but I’ve been an avid celebrator of Mitch Keller bump day for years! Since 2019, Keller has been a YRFI machine! Over the years, this is his YRFI record: 65-67

• 2019: 5-6
• 2020: 3-2
• 2021: 18-6
• 2022: 15-22
• 2023: 15-17
• 2024: 9-14

YRFI odds have typically been plus-money wagers, making this a consistently profitable bet through the years. Keller has good numbers again this season, but his underlying metrics are about as average as they get. Since the break, the Padres are fourth in wRC+ and have the third-highest batting average (.283) in baseball.

The Pirates’ lineup can do damage in the top of the first of their own against Martin Perez. The southpaw was traded to San Diego from Pittsburgh at the deadline and has impressed in his first two outings but those came against the Rockies and Marlins. The Buccos bats have a combined .355 batting average against Perez!

The San Diego @Padres:

•Have won 9 of their last 10
•Are 18-3 since July 20
•Reached 15 games over .500 for the first time this year pic.twitter.com/SESaTmmDzt

— MLB (@MLB) August 14, 2024

Pittsburgh has terrific splits against lefties and has a chance to finally get back in the win column against their former pitcher. The Pirates have ranked sixth in wRC+ against lefties over the last month compared to just 25th in wRC+ against righties over this span. Combine the Pirates success against left-handers and Mitch Keller’s history of YRFI’s. This is a no-brainer for me tonight at BetUS Sportsbook!

Join BetUS and bet now! Get a $450 MLB Bonus Available for $200 Bets on your first time deposit!

Best NRFI Bet Today: Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners

For our Wednesday NRFI bet, we’re headed to the streets of the Motor City when the Tigers continue their three-game set with the Mariners. We’re going to back one of the best starting rotations in baseball against an opener for the Tigers.

Seattle will send Bryan Woo to the mound and looking to bounce back after getting trounced by Detroit on Tuesday night. Woo has been terrific in his second big league season with a 5-1 record and a 2.27 ERA. His previous outing came against this same Tigers lineup, and he pitched 6.2 strong innings. Seattle is the fourth-best NRFI team this season at 71-49. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 60-60.

Woo is in the 99th percentile in xERA and Detroit has scored the fourth-fewest runs since the break despite putting up 15 runs last night!

Bryan Woo, Elevated 97mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/4IMoqpkjNK

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 3, 2024

The sweat will come in the top half of the first when Detroit sends Beau Brieske to the mound. Brieske will be the opener for Detroit and has been mediocre in his third big league season. However, the Mariners’ lineup leaves plenty to be desired, with the lowest batting average in the league since the break at a pitiful .210! Back the young arms to keep the bats quiet early in Detroit.

Bet on These YRFI/NRFI Picks

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

Questions of the Day