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NRFI and YRFI Picks 8/20: Bet Keller to Deliver Early Profits

· Aug 20 - 5 minutes read

The MLB schedule is jam-packed for Tuesday, with all 30 clubs ready to take the field. DJ Herz and Austin Gomber combine for an enticing pitcher’s duel in Washington, D.C.
The Texas Rangers’ offense against Mitch Keller has a YRFI written all over it.
See today’s MLB odds and our best NRFI/YRFI picks.

The Major League Baseball season is in full swing, and an exhilarating slate of games is scheduled for Tuesday to begin the weekend. Tonight’s MLB schedule features 15 matchups, including some marquee pitching matchups. The playoff races are on and extremely tight in the American and National League, with 21 of 30 teams still considered in the hunt! Our NRFI/YRFI picks went 3-2 last week, and I’m looking to replicate that success on Tuesday.

NRFI and YRFI Picks 8/20: Bet Keller to Deliver Early Profits — DJ Herz #74 of the Washington Nationals/Scott Taetsch/Getty Images/AFP

One of the fastest-growing MLB betting markets is the YRFI (Yes Runs in the First Inning) and NRFI (No Runs in the First Inning). This short, thrilling bet becomes a sweat early on in a baseball game.

When it comes to handicapping for a YRFI or NRFI, thorough research is key. Understanding the starting pitchers and the lineups they’ll face is crucial. Here are my top YRFI and NRFI MLB bets for today.

YRFI/NRFI Pick for Aug. 20

YRFI: Rangers vs Pirates

For our YRFI bet, we’re heading to Texas when the Rangers look to continue to hold the Pirates down. The Rangers will have young southpaw Cody Bradford on the mound, and the Pirates will have veteran right-hander Mitch Keller on the bump.

Some of you may have learned this week, but I’ve been an avid Mitch Keller bump day celebrator for years! Since 2019, Keller has been a YRFI machine! Over the years, this is his YRFI record: 66-67

2019: 5-6

2020: 3-2

2021: 18-6

2022: 15-22

2023: 15-17

2024: 10-14

YRFI odds have typically been plus-money wagers, making this a consistently profitable bet through the years. Keller has good numbers again this season, but his underlying metrics are about as average as they get.

The Rangers’ offense has improved since the break and is just above league average in August. Keller’s home-road splits are also glaring, with a 5.27 ERA away from PNC Park compared to 2.58 at home. I faded Keller in his last start on the road against the Padres, and he was lit up for a season-high of eight runs!

⚾ Mitch Keller vs Padres

Location: 🟠 D+
Physics: 🟢 B
Contact: 🔴 F
Luck: ⚖️

86 Pitches, 25 Batters, 15 Outs
8 Earned Runs, 8 Hits, 2 Ks, 2 BBs pic.twitter.com/NoZTKTOIcY

— Pitcher Scorecards (@PitchScorecards) August 15, 2024

The Pirates’ lineup can do damage in the top of the first of their own against Bradford. The southpaw is in his second big league season and was moved to the pen after struggling as a starter in 2023. Bradford has put together two strong outings against the Twins and Yankees, but the Bucco’s bats should do some damage!

Pittsburgh has terrific splits against lefties and has a chance to get back in the win column. The Pirates are ranked 19th in wRC+ against lefties compared to 29th in wRC+ against righties this season. Combine the Pirates’ success against left-handers and Mitch Keller’s history of YRFI’s. This is a no-brainer for me tonight at BetUS Sportsbook!

Pick: Runs in the first inning – YES

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Best NRFI Bet Today: Nationals vs Rockies

For our NRFI bet, we’re heading to Nationals Park for what can turn into a strong pitching showdown. Colorado kicks off its East Coast road trip in D.C. tonight with its top lefty on the mound, Austin Gomber. The Nationals will have one of their young stud arms on the bump, DJ Herz, in what projects to be a duel early on.

DJ Herz tied his career high of six innings against the Orioles tonight.

Hear from the lefty inside the clubhouse after a 4-1 loss. pic.twitter.com/6mfqTGSZuf

— Nationals on MASN (@masnNationals) August 15, 2024

The Nats lineup in the bottom of the first doesn’t strike fear into me to back out of this NRFI. Washington has struggled all season long against lefties, ranking 26th in wRC+ against them! The Nationals are tied as the second-best NRFI team at 77-48. Meanwhile, Colorado is the second-worst NRFI team this season at 57-68, but the Rockies are a different team away from Coors Field, as you would expect.

The Rockies’ lineup is 28th in wRC+ against lefties. Herz has a 7-1 NRFI record in eight home starts. Cool temperatures are forecasted tonight in the nation’s capital (72 degrees at first pitch). This should help keep the offenses at bay so keep in mind when betting online.

Pick: Runs in the first inning – NO

Bet on these YRFI/NRFI Picks!