With the 2021 MLB All-Star game and accompanying Home Run Derby set for Monday night, it’s time to take a look at who could win this year’s fun-filled long-ball showdown. This year’s Home Run Derby will go down live from Coors Field in Denver and we should see a plethora of home runs at a stadium that is a mile above sea level and well-known for producing prolific blasts.
Los Angeles Angels dual-threat superstar Shohei Ohtani is the prohibitive favorite. Texas Rangers center fielder Joey Gallo is second on the odds leaderboard while New York Mets first baseman and defending Home Run derby champion Pete Alonso rounds out the top three. The MLB Home Run Derby odds for this year’s event are live in the BetUS online sportsbook right now. Let’s take a look at the 2021 Home Run Derby bracket.
- No. 1 Shohei Ohtani vs. No. 8 Juan Soto
- No. 2 Joey Gallo vs. No. 7 Trevor Story
- No. 3 Matt Olson vs. No. 6 Trey Mancini
- No. 4 Salvador Perez vs. No. 5 Pete Alonso
2021 MLB Home Run Derby
- When: Monday, 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Coors Field, Denver, CO
Home Run Derby Odds
Who Will Win the Home Run Derby
- Shohei Ohtani +175
- Joey Gallo +275
- Pete Alonso +500
- Matt Olson +650
- Trevor Story +750
- Juan Soto +800
- Trey Mancini +1200
- Salvador Perez +1400
Participants outside of the defending champion are typically seeded based on their home run totals. In the event that a tie-breaker between two or more players is needed, the player with the most home runs since June 15 gets the higher seed.
- First tiebreaker: 90-second swing-off.
- Second tiebreaker: Best-of-3 swing swing-off.
- Third tiebreaker: Sudden-death swing-offs until a winner is determined.
Rounds are currently four minutes in length. A player is entitled to 30 seconds of bonus time if they hit at least two home runs 440 feet or longer. The bonus time is awarded at the end of the four-minute round.
Each batter is allowed one 45-second timeout during the first and semifinal rounds. They are awarded two in the finals, one of 45 seconds in duration and another that is 30 seconds in length.
Real in the Field
Los Angeles Angels dual-threat superstar designated hitter and pitcher Ohtani is in the All-Star game as both a pitcher and hitter. The 26-year-old Japanese import earned his first All-Star nod as a position player and a pitcher. No player in league history was simultaneously an All-Star in both categories. Ohtani has 32 home runs right to lead the majors while batting a solid .279 with 59 RBIs. Ohhtani had gone deep twice in his last four games.
Texas star Gallo is sixth in home runs with 23. The 27-year-old Nevada native hit two homers on Wednesday against Detroit and has three homer runs over his last three games.
New York Mets first baseman and defending champion Alonso is tied for 44th in home runs with a modest 15. Alonso hit a pair of home runs over the last week after going yard against the New York Yankees in consecutive games of a doubleheader on the Fourth of July.
Oakland first baseman Olson is tied for eight in home runs with 21. Olson is batting .283 with 57 RBIs but has only one home run over the last seven days. Kansas City catcher Perez is tied for 13th with 20 home runs.
Washington Nationals left fielder Soto is batting .286 with 42 RBIs but has hit only 11 home runs after launching 34 long balls in 150 games in 2019. Colorado shortstop Story also is struggling with an uninspiring .252 batting average and only 11 home runs in 75 games. Story has not homered since going deep against St. Louis in consecutive games on July 3 and 4. Baltimore Orioles first baseman Mancini is batting .256 with 16 home runs. Mancini homered Sunday, his first in over a week.
Not in the field are Blue Jays DH Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who is tied for second with San Diego Padres superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. with 28 home runs. Washington Nationals left fielder Kyle Schwarber is fourth with 25 home runs but also won’t compete. Nor will Atlanta Braves superstar right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. who has 24 home runs but suffered a season-ending knee injury on Saturday.
Round 1 Longest Home Run
- Shohei Ohtani +175
- Joey Gallo +350
- Pete Alonso +375
- Trevor Story +650
- Juan Soto +750
- Matt Olson +850
- Trey Mancini +1200
- Salvador Perez +1200
Analysis: After Yermin Mercedes’ 485-foot bomb and Giancarlo Stanton’s 471-foot blast, Ohtani has jacked one 470 feet and another 463 feet this season. No other player in the field has hit one at least 463 feet this season. Play the percentages and back Ohtani here.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani
Home Run Derby to Reach Finals (Bracket One)
- Shohei Ohtani Ev
- Pete Alonso +200
- Salvador Perez +450
- Juan Soto +500
Analysis: I’m going with Ohtani, followed by a pick for Washington’s Juan Soto, the youngest participant in the field this year at 22 years old. Soto is offering some great value as a +500 pick to win it all. Soto’s upside is limitless right now.
Picks: 1. Shohei Ohtani, 2. Juan Soto
Home Run Derby To Reach Finals (Bracket Two)
- Joey Gallo +150
- Matt Olson +225
- Trevor Story +275
- Trey Mancini +450
Analysis: I’m going with Gallo, although I’m undeniably hoping that Mancini reaches the finals after beating stage 3 colon cancer.
Picks: 1. Joey Gallo, 2. Trey Mancini
Most Home Runs in Round 1
- Over 20½ Home Runs -700
- Under 20½ Home Runs +400
Analysis: I’m going with the over. The most home runs in one round in the history of this event is 40 by Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with Joc Pederson blasting 39 and Guerrero Jr. 29 to own two of the top three spots.
Least Home Runs in Round 1
- Over 16½ Home Runs +200
- Under 16½ Home Runs -250
Analysis: Remember when Jose Canseco hit one homer in 1986? No? Too young? Okay. How about Fred McGriff’s three in 1992? Still too long ago? Okay, fine. How about Nomar Garciaparra’s zero jacks in 1997 or Mark McGwire’s four homers in 1998?
If you need me to move into the current millennium, then you should know big bopper Prince Fielder hit three in 2007 and Robinson Cano was held homerless in 2012 after winning the Derby the previous year. The point is, it’s pretty likely someone hits less than 17 homers in Round 1. Go with the under.
Pick: Under 16½ Home Runs
Longest Home Run
- Over 515½ Home Runs -140
- Under 515½ Home Runs +110
Analysis: This pick is pretty easy. No player has hit a home run longer than Aaron Judge’s 513-foot blast in 2017 or his 507-foot bomb that same year. Judge also hit another 504 feet and one more at 501 feet. Play the Under here.
Pick: Under 515½ Feet
Player to Advance (1 vs 8)
- Shohei Ohtani (LAA) -250
- Juan Soto (WAS) +195
Analysis: I love Soto and believe he’s more than capable of beating anyone in this year’s field. Unfortunately for the young Washington Nationals’ star, Ohtani has just been mind-bogglingly great this season.
Player to Advance (4 vs 5)
- Salvador Perez (KAN) +200
- Pete Alonso (NYM) -260
Analysis: Alonso might be the defending champ, but Perez (21) has four more jacks than the New York Mets first baseman. I’m going with the underdog Perez to get it done at +200.
Pick: Salvador Perez
Player To Advance (3 vs 6)
- Matt Olson (OAK) -200
- Trey Mancini (BAL) +160
Analysis: Mancini is the favorite, but he’s got 16 homers compared to Matt Olson’s 23 long balls. I want Mancini to win and his +160 return means you can’t pass him up.
Pick: Trey Mancini
Player To Advance (2 vs 7)
- Joey Gallo (TEX) -200
- Trevor Story (COL) +160
Analysis: Gallo has 24 homers to Story’s 11 jacks. It’s going to cost you $200 to win $100, but Gallo is a virtual lock here to beat out Story.
Pick: Joey Gallo
Prediction to Win
Not only is Ohtani the prohibitive favorite, but he’s my top pick to win the Home Run Derby as well. Ohtani has two home runs over the last four games and nine homers in LA’s last 13 games overall. Ohtani’s average exit velocity is 92.3 mph, with his longest home being 473 feet.
“I’ve been doing this 26 years, seen as many players as anybody, but I’ve never seen a skill set like this,” an international scouting director told MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo in 2017, before Ohtani had been selected the Angels. “There should be giddiness. No one has ever seen it.”
The lefty batter and right-handed hurler is in the midst of a magical season that I fully expect will be highlighted by a win on Monday night.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani
The following two picks are as simple as pie, seeing as how I’ve already picked Ohtani to get the win. Go with the American League and the lefty batter to cash in two more times on the 2021 MLB Home Run derby.
Home Run Derby Winner
- American League -225
- National League +185
Pick: American League
Home Run Derby – Winner Will Bat From Which Side
- Left -200
- Right +160