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MLB Parlay: Fade Frozen Blue Jays, Ride Jorge Mateo’s Hot Bat

Are you looking for some solid MLB picks for Thursday’s abbreviated slate of games? We’ve got you covered with two hot bets: Jorge Mateo to snag a hit against Mike Clevinger and the Toronto Blue Jays to struggle mightily against Jack Flaherty.

With Mateo’s impressive form, Clevinger’s pitching tendencies, Flaherty’s recent dominance, and the Jays’ offensive struggles, these bets are backed by expert analysis. Dive in for all the insightful details and place those bets with confidence!

MLB Parlay: Fade Frozen Blue Jays, Ride Jorge Mateo's Hot Bat
Jorge Mateo #3 #3 | Mitchell Layton/Getty Images/AFP


Orioles 2B Jorge Mateo Over ½ Hits (-136)

Let’s talk about Jorge Mateo and why betting on him to snag at least one hit against Mike Clevinger and the White Sox is a great betting pick for Thursday’s limited slate of games. Here’s the scoop:

Mateo has been hotter than a jalapeño on a skillet. Over the past week, he’s been raking like a landscaper in autumn, with at least one hit in 12 of his last 15 games. He’s a modest .256 hitter on the season, but he’s in the zone right now. Think of him as a .250 hitter on a heater—like an average cup of coffee that’s suddenly been turned into a double espresso.


The Orioles are set to face Clevinger, who’s been serving more meatballs than an Italian grandma. Clevinger’s sporting a 5.56 ERA, and opposing hitters are smacking him around to the tune of a .306 batting average. Clevinger on the mound is like a Jackie Chan movie—everyone’s getting a hit.

Mateo’s stats are solid: he’s hitting .250 in May, which might sound average, but let’s remember that average in baseball is still pretty darn good. Plus, the White Sox allow the second-most home runs in baseball, so their pitchers are clearly having some “bombs away” issues.

Let’s get into the nitty-gritty: Clevinger’s been surprisingly good at limiting hard hits on his changeups, but his groundball rate in two-strike counts is lower than a snake’s belly—just 29%. That means Mateo, with his quick bat and speed, has a prime chance to turn those grounders into base hits.

So, you take it when Vegas gives you -134 MLB odds for Mateo to get one measly hit. Because betting on Mateo to get a hit-off Clevinger is like betting on the tide to rise and fall—it will happen.



Blue Jays 1st 5 Innings Team Total Under 1.5 Runs (+100)

Bo Bichette may have launched a moonshot last night, giving the Jays a big hit in a big spot, but don’t let that fool you into thinking the offense is suddenly clicking. One home run doesn’t turn a pumpkin into a carriage, and the Jays are still stuck in the pumpkin patch.

They’re facing Jack Flaherty on Thursday, who’s been pitching very well of late. Flaherty has been stingier than Scrooge on Christmas Eve in his last four starts, allowing just seven earned runs over 25.1 innings. That’s a 1.79 FIP, folks, which is basically pitching nerd-speak for “He’s been really, really good.”

Flaherty’s metrics are so dazzling they might give you a tan. He ranks in the 97th percentile in whiff rate (35.9%) and the 95th percentile in strikeout rate (33.0%). Essentially, he’s making hitters swing and miss like they’re auditioning for the next season of “America’s Funniest Home Videos.” He also gets hitters to chase pitches out of the zone 31.0% of the time, which means they’re swinging at pitches that are practically in another zip code.

Flaherty is as tough as a two-dollar steak when it comes to hard contact. He’s in the 78th percentile in barrel rate (5.2%) and the 65th percentile in hard-hit rate (36.3%). This means hitters are making about as much solid contact as a nearsighted toddler playing T-ball.





The Blue Jays’ offense has been nothing short of disappointing. Outside of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., they’re not getting much production, and facing Flaherty in the pitcher-friendly confines of Comerica Park is like trying to light a match in a hurricane.

The stats back it up: The Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games and the Team Total Under in 28 of their previous 47. Even more compelling, they’ve hit the First Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in only 10 of their last 16 away games. Meanwhile, Flaherty’s opponents have a miss rate of 36% against him this season—best in MLB. And with runners in scoring position? A jaw-dropping 48% miss rate.

So, betting on the Blue Jays to go Under 1.5 runs in the first five innings is like betting on a toddler to fall asleep at the most inopportune time—it will happen.



Questions Of The Day

Which pitcher leads the MLB in saves?

Cardinal’s closer Ryan Helsley leads the MLB in saves with 16.

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