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Paul Skenes, Max Fried Top MLB Player Props Today

We have an exciting schedule of MLB games to kick things off Monday. I hope you weren’t too busy with backyard BBQs for Father’s Day and had time to witness some excellent baseball with your old man over the weekend. The Orioles and Phillies put on a show. Meanwhile, the Red Sox and Yankees re-ignited their rivalry.

We are already approaching the regular season’s halfway point. We continue to learn about each team, and our consistently accurate MLB picks, boasting a 17-9 record in June with our MLB player props, are here to deliver. Rest assured, I’m eager to carry that momentum into Monday!

Paul Skenes, Max Fried Top MLB Player Props Today
Randy Vásquez #98 of the San Diego Padres / Denis Poroy / Getty Images North America / Getty Images via Afp

June 17 is a travel day for most teams, so we have nine games on tonight’s schedule. Plenty of options exist for MLB player prop bets today, but I’ve done the hard work of narrowing down the best for you based on specific criteria or analysis. Get ready for an exciting day of MLB action!

 

Best 4 MLB Player Props Today

1. Cardinals SP Sonny Gray Over 6½ Strikeouts (-118)

I’m firing on a strikeout prop with our first MLB bet tonight. I have faded the Marlins all season, which has paid off. The St. Louis Cardinals travel to South Beach to play Miami in the first of a three-game set. The Cardinals will send 34-year-old righty Sonny Gray to the bump against the Fish. We backed Gray in his previous outing against the Pirates at this same number, and he came through for us, finishing with nine strikeouts.

Gray is in his 12th big league season. He finished as the runner-up for AL Cy Young in 2023 and, in his first year in St. Louis, is off to a strong start in 2024. He has pitched his way into the top 10 in NL Cy Young odds, and he should be considered a serious contender for the award.

The Cardinals needed an arm for the front end of their rotation so they went out and signed Gray to a three-year deal in the offseason, and he has delivered through the first third of the season. He has thrown the ball exceptionally well, posting an 8-4 record with a 3.01 ERA and a WHIP at 1.03.

Gray has a 106 Pitching+ and Stuff+ this season, tied for the fifth-highest and 14th-best in MLB among qualified starting pitchers. He is in the 75th percentile in WHIFF% and 95th percentile in K%. Gray has exceeded six strikeouts in six of his 12 starts. He finished with six Ks in four of the misses. He’s posted career-high marks in xERA and K-BB% with St. Louis. Since his disastrous season with the Yankees in 2018, he has finished above the league average in K/BB ratio.

The Marlins aren’t a bottom-of-the-barrel strikeout squad; they are at the league average in K %. However, they have the eighth-highest Whiff % and the fourth-highest strikeout rate in June behind only the Mariners, Athletics and Pirates. Bank on Gray to fan at least seven Marlins in a matchup with sneaky pitcher’s duel potential.

 

 

2. Braves SP Max Fried Under 5½ Hits Allowed (-132)

The Atlanta Braves begin a three-game series at home tonight against the Detroit Tigers. Atlanta will send 30-year-old southpaw Max Fried to the mound. You may recall that we faded Fried in his last outing against the Orioles, but we’ll trust him to have a bounce-back performance in front of the home crowd tonight.

Fried will make his 14th start of the season. I expect the Tigers to struggle against the left-hander. I would have loved to snag a 2½ earned runs line, but I’m only seeing 1½ on the board at BetUS. Thanks to some solid starting pitching, Detroit has surprisingly hovered around .500. However, its offense leaves much to be desired.

Fried has been phenomenal for most of his first eight seasons in the bigs. He is a true front-end rotation arm. His 2023 season was littered with injuries, but he is healthy again and has thrown well. He has a 3.20 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP through his first 13 outings. Fried has been one of the most reliable arms in the league over the last five seasons.

Fried has allowed fewer than five hits in eight of 13 starts this season (61%). Fried typically throws deep into games so there’s some added risk with an under wager, but I expect him to quiet the Tigers. The Tigers are tied with the fourth-lowest batting average in the league (.232). In June; that number drops to .224. Against lefties, they have the third-fewest hits and the fifth-worst OPS (.647). I’m firing up Fried with confidence tonight.

 

3. Padres SP Randy Vasquez Over 5½ Hits Allowed (-120)

He’s back! The Philadelphia Phillies have been the best team in the National League, and they have done it without one of their top players since May 3. Shortstop Trea Turner will be reinstated ahead of tonight’s game after he suffered a hamstring injury over a month ago. Turner had been raking before the injury sidelined him, hitting .343. Philly needs reinforcements after a grueling road trip, so Turner’s return comes at the right time.

Philadelphia has been on the road for 11 days, including a four-day trip across the pond to London. They dropped five of eight games along the way but still have a four-game lead over the Dodgers for the best record in the NL. They return to Citizens Bank Park and have a terrific matchup to do damage on Monday night.


The Phillies will host the Padres, who will send Randy Vasquez to the rubber in the series opener. Vasquez is in his second big-league season and has struggled to this point. He has a 4.93 ERA and a sky-high 1.51 WHIP. Vasquez is in the bottom percentile in nearly every significant pitching category. He is in the fourth percentile in xERA at 5.95 and is league-worst in xBA with a .318 mark! He’s not missing many barrels, and I expect the Phillies veteran lineup to smack him around.

He has allowed at least six hits in five of eight starts. Philadelphia is batting .252, the sixth-best mark in the bigs. Fire up the Phillies in Trea Turner’s return!

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4. Pirates SP Paul Skenes At Least 8 Strikeouts (-129)

Our final MLB bet tonight shouldn’t come as a shock. The sportsbook has Paul Skenes‘ strikeout line at a playable number, so I’m hopping on it. You should be well aware that Skenes has burst onto the scene. He has finished with eight strikeouts in back-to-back starts in June. He’s been as good as advertised. He has the best K-BB% in MLB and a 35.4% strikeout rate. He has the second-best K/9 in the league among starting pitchers at 12.42!

Skenes will face a Reds lineup that’s been mediocre this season. Injuries have contributed to this, but the team is starting to get healthy and is quietly sixth in wOBA in June. Still, Skenes is electric on the bump and has jumped to second in NL Rookie of the Year odds after just six starts. The No. 1 overall pick from 2023 leads the league in Pitching+ at 112.

The Reds have been an easy target for strikeout props as they have the sixth-highest K% and the ninth-highest Whiff %, leading to the seventh-most strikeouts. Count on Skenes to continue his tremendous rookie season.

 

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

 

 

Questions of the Day

What is the best MLB player prop bet today?


I like San Diego Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez to finish with at least six hits allowed against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Who is the best MLB team on the run line this season?


The Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals are the most profitable teams on the run line, going 44-27 and hitting 62% of the time.

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