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Expect Low-Scoring Affair When Marlins Face Phillies

The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies will both look to produce some fireworks when they meet Tuesday night in Game 2 of their four-game set. The NL East rivals did just that on Monday night for the second time in their last four meetings.

Miami is tied for second place with Atlanta in the NL East standings, one game behind the New York Mets. Philadelphia is in fourth place, a half-game behind the Braves and Marlins. With both ballclubs going all-out for the win, let’s find out where some of the best betting value surrounding this affair lies. The MLB Odds are live in the BetUS online sportsbook.

Miguel Rojas of the Miami Marlins hits a double against the Philadelphia Phillies
Michael Reaves/Getty Images/AFP
Game: Philadelphia Phillies (23-25) at Miami Marlins (23-24) 

Location: laonDepot Park, Miami, FL 

Time: 6:40 p.m. ET

MLB Odds

Philadelphia Phillies +117

Miami Marlins -127

Total: 7

Run Line

Philadelphia +1½ (-200)

Miami -1½ (+170)

Starting Pitchers

Philadelphia Phillies – Vince Velasquez – RHP – (1-0, 3.52 ERA, 40 SO)

Miami Marlins – Sandy Alcantara – RHP – (2-3, 3.63 ERA, 60 SO)

1st Inning Winner

Phillies +375

Marlins +300

Tie -190

Analysis: Philadelphia ranks fifth in first-inning runs scored (0.73) while Miami ranks 28th (0.34). Philly has scored 1.33 first-inning runs over its last three games by putting four first-inning runs on the board against Boston on Sunday. Miami has not scored a single run in the first inning in its last three games. The tie selection is going to cost you -190, but it’s the smart pick.

Pick: Tie

Vince Velasquez Total Strikeouts

Over 5½ Strikeouts -115

Under 5½ Strikeouts -115

Analysis: Velasquez has racked up at least six Ks in each of his last three starts. The right-hander had three strikeouts in 1.1 relief innings against Boston on Friday. Play the Over.

Pick: Over 5½ Strikeouts

Sandy Alcantara Total Strikeouts

Over 6½ Strikeouts +125

Under 6½ Strikeouts -155

Analysis: Alcantara struck out a season-high nine batters in six innings against … Philadelphia – in his last start on Thursday. The right-hander has four outings of at least 7 Ks in his last 10 starts overall. I’m going with the Over, barely.

Pick: Over 6½ Strikeouts

Miguel Rojas Total Bases

Over 1½ Bases +140

Under 1½ Bases -170

Analysis: Rojas is tied for 57th in total bases with 73 in 163 at-bats. The 32-year-old shortstop is batting .282  and went 1-for-2 with a walk and a double on Monday night. The smart money is on the Over.

Pick: Over 1½ Bases

Total Runs

5 runs or less +155

6 or 7 runs +325

8 or 9 runs +425

10 or 11 runs +600

12 or more runs +425

Analysis: The last time Vince Velasquez took the mound, there were six runs scored. The last time Sandy Alcantara took the bump, there were identical six runs scored. Yeah….I’m going with six!

Pick: 6 or 7 runs +325

Winning Margin

Phillies to win by 1 run +600

Phillies to win by 2 runs +750

Marlins to win by 1 run +425

Marlins to win by 2 runs +700

Marlins to win by 3 runs +900

Marlins to win by 4 or more runs +340

Analysis: Philadelphia’s bullpen is borderline atrocious. Ok, forget the borderline part, they’re abysmal. Miami’s staff has been mostly fantastic. The Marlins win by a pair of runs.

Pick: Marlins to win by 2 runs +700

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