Phillies’ Backs Against the Wall after Game 5 Thriller
The Houston Astros have two chances – both at home – to claim their second World Series title in six years and the first in Dusty Baker’s long career as a manager. The first opportunity comes Saturday night, and we’re eyeing the chance to make a few more sports bets before baseball goes to bed.
Another exciting matchup in this round is the Phillies vs Astros duel. If you want to know more about this game, check out our MLB spreads at BetUS Sportsbook and Casino!
Wheeler Gets Nod in Do-or-Die Start
Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler has reportedly been dealing with some arm fatigue. That played into the team’s decision to hold him back for Game 6 instead of using him on regular rest in Game 5.
Whether that decision pays off depends on Wheeler’s performance in what assuredly will be the most important start of his career. His Game 2 start in Houston a full week ago didn’t go all that well, as the Astros got to Wheeler for five runs in five innings, but the extra rest could be all the difference in a pressure-packed situation.
“The numbers kind of speak for themselves with how well he’s pitched — not just this season but in his entire career — with that extra day of rest,” catcher J.T. Realmuto said of Wheeler. “I don’t know exactly how to define it, but starting pitchers always seem to do a lot better and feel a lot better with that extra day.”
In 2022, the 32-year-old had a 1.67 ERA in five starts with six days or more of rest, compared to 2.57 on five days of rest and 3.64 on regular rest.
Of course, a sharp Wheeler is not the be-all-end-all. The Phillies have to start hitting and you need to factor their current doldrums into your bet online. Since chasing Lance McCullers Jr. from Game 3, Philadelphia has managed two runs on seven hits in 21⅔ innings while striking out 30 times.
Trying to restart that engine against Framber Valdez in Game 6 won’t be easy.
Astros, Baker on Cusp of History
Baker has lost the World Series twice as a big league manager while reaching the postseason 12 times. It’s hard to imagine his team getting him this close to glory and not sealing the deal at home, especially when they’re clicking on all cylinders, at least as it relates to October’s low-scoring ways.
That means pitching and defense, both of which were on display in Game 5. Trey Mancini’s brilliant stop at first base to end the eighth with runners on the corners and Chas McCormick’s leaping grab against the right-centerfield wall in the ninth were the best examples of the team’s brand of championship baseball.
In perfect position, Mancini – who had just entered the game as a pinch hitter in the top of the inning — smothered a Kyle Schwarber hot shot and ended Philadelphia’s last true threat. He called it the best play of his career, even if he didn’t really have any time to think about it as it happened.
“I had nothing going through my head,” Mancini said. “I just tackled it, basically.”
On Saturday, Valdez will tackle his next assignment. He easily passed all of them in October, pitching the Astros to four straight wins in four starts beginning with five scoreless innings against the Phillies on Oct. 5 and ending with the 28-year-old outdueling Wheeler with six innings of one-run ball in Game 2.
Naturally, the MLB odds are in his favor.
Phillies vs Astros Game Injuries
Phillies vs Astros Head-to-Head
Houston has won 8t of the last 12 against Philadelphia at home. That includes Games 1 and 2 and dates all the way back to 2011.
Phillies vs Astros Game Information
- Game: Phillies vs Astros
- Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
- Day/Time: Saturday, Nov. 5, 8:03 p.m. ET
- Phillies vs Astros Live stream: MLB.tv
Take a Look at Other Analysis, Picks & Predictions for The World Series
Phillies vs Astros Betting Lines
Phillies vs Astros Prediction
You can’t count out the Phillies, but there’s a sense they’ve taken their best shot and it might not be enough. If Wheeler’s arm fatigue is not an issue, a Game 7 is possible. But there are no such concerns with Valdez, who has been as steady as they come.
Minute Maid Park will be loud. The home team has all the momentum. And it still has that incredible bullpen that just cannot be solved. Take the ‘Stros to finish it off Saturday night.
The Philadelphia Phillies are listed at +125 in our Vegas MLB lines. This means that if you wager $100 on the Astros, you have a chance to win $125. The Houston Astros are -140, offering a chance to win $71 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives the Phillies a 44.44% chance to win, with the Astros at 58.33%.
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Phillies vs Astros Edge
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Phillies vs Astros Game Summary
“The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.”