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Picks, Prediction for Phillies vs Mets on Wednesday, May 31
Earlier this season, the New York Mets were not a good bet online at home, but they are turning things around at Citi Field as they prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday night.
Francisco Lindor’s homer and a combined two-hitter helped the Mets take the series opener on Tuesday 2-0 for their sixth straight victory at home after starting the season 7-9 at Citi Field. Meanwhile, Philadelphia fell to 11-19 on the road.
Aaron Nola, who gets the start for the Phillies, is 9-7 with a 3.30 ERA in his career versus the Mets despite losing all four decisions against them last year. Carlos Carrasco will be on the mound for New York, coming off his first victory of the season last week.
The Mets are +600 in MLB live betting to win the National League East, and the Phillies are +1200, according to MLB odds.
Phillies Need Spark
Philadelphia won a season-high five straight games from May 7-13 to move back over .500, but have dropped 10 of 15 contests since and scored just six times in the past three outings.
After finishing 2022 seventh in the majors in runs scored, the Phillies are in the bottom third of the league in the first 54 games of 2023. Philadelphia should have Bryce Harper back in the lineup after a full day off Tuesday and need more from Trea Turner (6-for-42 last 10 games) along with Kyle Schwarber (.166 average).
The under is now 13-5-1 in the Phillies’ last 19 games at the Mets, according to MLB lines.
Lindor Warming Up
Starting pitcher Kodai Senga was the big story for the Mets in the series opener, but Lindor also homered for the third time in four games and reached 40 RBIs for the season.
Francisco Lindor’s solution to outfielders robbing homers at Citi: hit it far enough that there’s nothing they can do about it.
Mets 1, Phillies 0, bottom four. pic.twitter.com/VmUL9LgKDe
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) May 31, 2023
Lindor, who knocked in 13 runs over 19 games against Philadelphia last year, is only hitting .227 but is second on the club behind Pete Alonso (20, 46) in both home runs and RBIs. Edwin Escobar singled in the other run Tuesday and is 7-for-18 in his last six contests.
Starting Pitchers
Aaron Nola (4-3, 4.59 ERA) vs Carlos Carrasco (1-2, 6.75)
Nola is a good bet at the sportsbook to go at least six innings since he has done that in eight straight starts. The right-hander was better in April (3.58 ERA) than in May (4.73) after giving up five runs over six frames in a no-decision with Atlanta last time out. Nola is 2-2 with a 5.02 ERA on the road.
Carrasco yielded just one run on five hits across 6 ⅔ innings to beat the Chicago Cubs last Thursday, allowing at least five runs in three of his first four outings. The 36-year-old has not fared well at home in two starts this season but was 9-3 at Citi Field in 2022. Carrasco has walked 12 and struck out just 15 in 25 ⅓ innings this year.
Phillies vs Mets Head-to Head
The Mets won 14 of 19 meetings last season, are 6-1 over the past seven overall and 7-1 in the last eight at Citi Field if you are online gambling.
Alonso is batting .349 with five homers in his career against Nola and Starling Marte is batting .375 versus the Phillies’ ace.
Carrasco is 2-1 with a 4.02 ERA in his career versus the Phillies and Turner is 6-for-8 against the veteran righty.
Phillies vs Mets Game Information
- Game: Phillies (25-29) vs Mets (28-27)
- Location Citi Field, New York, N.Y.
- Day/Time: Wednesday, May 31, 7:10 p.m. ET
- Phillies vs Mets Live Stream: MLB.tv
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Phillies vs Mets Betting Lines
Over/Under Pick
Nola’s record looks better than last year (11-13), but he has not pitched anywhere near as good as in 2022 when he finished with a 3.25 ERA across 32 starts. Still, you can expect him to step up in his first start against the rival Mets. Carrasco may have also found something in his last outing. Look for them to keep the runs down.
Pick: Under 9 (-120)
Moneyline Pick
The Mets are feeling it at home lately, taking the last two against the league-best Tampa Rays, sweeping the Cleveland Guardians and blanking the Phillies on Tuesday. But we think Nola might have the edge, while Turner, Schwarber and Harper are due.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (-117)
Spread Pick
This will likely be a close one, so it’s hard to pass up a home underdog if you are betting on MLB spreads. You can expect the Phillies to potentially take an early lead and the Mets to claw back in it late. The 1½ runs would be nice to have.
Pick: New York Mets +1½ (-155)
