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Ryan, Castillo, Crochet Rack Up Ks: Don’t Miss Today’s Best MLB Prop Bets!

We cashed a sweat-free mini sweep on Wednesday, hitting our picks. Sonny Gray delivered a terrific performance, and the New York Mets smacked around Braxton Garrett as predicted. We improved to 16-6 with our best MLB bets in June. There is plenty of betting value on the diamond again on Thursday.

We have a short schedule of MLB games, with just 11 matchups on the board. It’s a getaway day for many teams, but our consistently profitable MLB picks, which have been delivering results with a high success rate, are here to guide you. Ensure you’re well-informed before making your bets and prepare for another exciting day of MLB action!

Ryan, Castillo, Crochet Rack Up Ks: Don't Miss Today's Best MLB Prop Bets!
Starting pitcher Garrett Crochet #45 of the Chicago White Sox | Quinn Harris/Getty Images/AFP

 

Best MLB Player Props Today

White Sox SP Garrett Crochet Over 7½ Strikeouts (-141)

I’m confident in our first MLB bet tonight, a strikeout prop. I’ve been eager to fade the Seattle Mariners against a top-flight arm, but we haven’t had the opportunity to highlight it here until tonight. The Chicago White Sox will send 24-year-old lefty Garrett Crochet to the mound against the Mariners in the finale of a four-game set on the road.

In his fourth MLB season, the tall lefty has been one of the few bright spots for a struggling White Sox club in 2024. He appears to be an AL Cy Young candidate in his first season as a starter. Chicago used him as a reliever in his first few seasons, but since the move to a starter, he appears to be a top-end rotation arm and the White Sox desperately need him to be. I expect Crochet to be a name to watch as the trade deadline approaches.

Crochet has a 105 Stuff+ this season, tied for 20th in MLB among qualified pitchers, and falls right behind guys like Freddy Peralta and Chris Sale. The southpaw’s slider and fastball combination has been baffling hitters. His underlying metrics are backing it up. He is in the 86th percentile in Whiff % and 96th in K %.

He has struck out at least eight in three consecutive starts and four of his previous six overall. He’s been phenomenal and is currently in the 96th percentile in xERA (2.31); his actual ERA is 3.33, and xBA (.187), and his actual OBA is (.190)!

Crochet has an opportunity to post a terrific line again tonight against the Mariners. Seattle has struck out the most in MLB. They have the fourth-highest Whiff % and the highest K %. The southpaw has the second-most strikeouts (103) in baseball behind Tyler Glasnow (104), and I expect that number to climb significantly again after tonight’s outing.

We just watched lefty Cole Ragans of the Royals finish with 9 Ks against the Mariners last weekend. I expect this to be a popular play among MLB bettors tonight, but I can’t fade Crochet! Bank on the lefty to fan at least eight Seattle hitters.

 

 

Mariners SP Luis Castillo Over 6½ Strikeouts (-152)

Before I move on, we will stay in the same game. I expect the White Sox-Mariners this one to be a pitcher’s duel, as does the sportsbook, with the total runs line set at just 6½! I also see Mariner starting pitcher Luis Castillo going over his strikeout line of 6½. This is a terrific buy-low spot on Castillo. Seattle boasts one of the best pitching staffs in the league and Castillo headlines it.

The right-hander hasn’t posted gaudy strikeout numbers in his five starts, but they came against some of the better bat-to-ball teams in the league (Royals, Astros, Yankees, Orioles). Before those starts, he finished with at least seven Ks in six of eight starts since the beginning of April. Castillo has finished with eight and nine strikeouts in his last two career starts against the White Sox. He has a strong 28% strikeout percentage across 83 at-bats against Chicago’s projected lineup.

Castillo has an elite Chase rate of 31.8% and a Whiff rate of 27.7%. The White Sox have been decimated by injuries, which has led to poor offensive numbers, including the seventh-highest K %. Over the last month, Chicago has had the third-most strikeouts in the league.

In this series, we have watched both Bryce Miller and Logan Gilbert finish with eight Ks against Chicago. Luis Castillo is lined up in this pitcher’s duel for a vintage performance.

 

 

Twins SP Joe Ryan Over 7½ Strikeouts (-137)

Joe Ryan, the starting pitcher for the Minnesota Twins, is set to face the struggling Oakland Athletics. We backed him twice earlier this season in April and we have gone 1-1, but tonight he will deliver.

Ryan has one career start against Oakland, which came on the road last July. He finished with seven strikeouts. The 28-year-old righty has finished with at least eight strikeouts in two of his previous three. Going back to last season, Ryan has finished with at least seven Ks in 15 of his previous 20 starts at home (75%).

We have seen at least one pitcher in 10 consecutive series finish with at least eight strikeouts against the A’s. Over the last month, 14 of 30 (46%) starting pitchers have finished with at least eight strikeouts against Oakland.

Michael King (12), Dylan Cease (8), Kevin Gausman (10), George Kirby (9), Reynaldo Lopez (8), Zack Littell (9), Justin Verlander (9), Cal Quantrill (8), Brady Singer (9), Seth Lugo (10), Cristian Javier (8), Framber Valdez (8), Luis Castillo (8) and Bryce Miller (9) all hit that number.

The A’s have the most strikeouts in MLB over the last 30 days. Oakland has the second-highest K% and the highest WHIFF% in MLB. The Athletics have the second-most strikeouts in MLB, behind only the Seattle Mariners. He should pitch deep into this game against a struggling Oakland lineup that ranks dead last in batting average on the road. I’m riding with Ryan and expect him to climb to at least eight strikeouts.

 

 

Questions Of The Day

Who will record the most strikeouts in Thursday’s MLB Games?


White Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet is projected to record the most strikeouts on Thursday when Chicago battles the Mariners.

What is the best MLB player prop bet on Thursday night?


The best player prop bet on Thursday night is Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo over 6½ strikeouts against the White Sox.

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