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Thursday MLB F5 Bets: Ride Mets Bats, Pitcher’s Duel in Seattle

The MLB season is in full swing, and an exhilarating slate of games is scheduled for Thursday. Tonight’s MLB schedule features 11 matchups, including some marquee pitching clashes.

The F5 (First 5 Inning bets) is one of the fastest-growing MLB betting markets. This short, thrilling bet becomes a sweat early on in a baseball game. When handicapping for an F5 bet, it’s essential to research the starting pitchers and the potential lineups they will face. Here are my best F5 MLB bets today.

Thursday MLB F5 Bets: Ride Mets Bats, Pitcher’s Duel in Seattle
Luis Severino #40 of the New York Mets - Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

 

Best 2 MLB Bets Today

 

1. Mets -½ (-140) First Five Innings

With our first MLB bet tonight, I’m fading the Miami Marlins against the New York Mets. All we need for this to cash is for the Mets to have the lead after the first five innings at Citi Field tonight. New York will have veteran 30-year-old right-hander Luis Severino on the mound.

Severino has had a bounce-back season in his first year with the Mets. He has made significant adjustments, including adding a new pitch to his arsenal, a sinker. This has led to a career-high ground-ball rate of 52%! Severino’s slider has been one of the best individual pitches in the league this season, with a 157 Stuff+. He’s avoiding hard contact.

Miami will send Roddery Munoz to the mound in the series finale. Munoz has been hit hard in two of four starts, and I expect that trend to continue on the road against the veteran Mets lineup. The Mets have struggled at home in Citi Field. However, over the last two weeks, they have tied with the Padres for the best batting average in the league (.293).

In his last two outings, Munoz allowed six runs on seven hits in just 4.2 innings against the Dodgers and four runs and five hits in four innings against the Guardians. Miami was behind in both of those starts after the first five innings. Munoz has a sky-high xERA of 7.27 through his first four career starts.

The Mets’ record of 29-37 doesn’t reflect their offensive ability. Severino has thrown much better at home this season, and I expect that trend to continue. The Mets have the sixth-highest OPS in the league over the last month (.749). Starling Marte has quietly been on fire, batting (.500) over the previous week, including multi-hit games in seven of his last nine. Ride with the Metropolitans tonight!

 

 

2. White Sox at Mariners First Five: Under 3 Runs

With our second MLB bet tonight, we’re riding with an under. We have a pitcher’s duel on tap between the Seattle Mariners and Chicago White Sox. This game has a minuscule total of just 6½ runs, and the first five total is set to just 3. If this finishes at 3, it would be a push, but I’m confident this stays under the number with two of the game’s brightest arms on the mound.

The White Sox will send 24-year-old lefty Garrett Crochet to the mound. He has quietly emerged as one of the best starting pitchers in the league. His average fastball velocity of 96.8 mph is the hardest of any left-handed starting pitcher.

The White Sox haven’t had much to get excited about in 2024, but they appeared to have found a gem in Crochet. He is in the running for the AL Cy Young candidate in his first season as a starter. He came out of the bullpen in his first three seasons, but it’s evident that a move to the starting rotation has boosted his career outlook.

Crochet has a 105 Stuff+ this season, tied for 20th in MLB among qualified pitchers, and falls right behind guys like Freddy Peralta and Chris Sale. He is in the 86th percentile in Whiff % and 96th in K %. He’s been phenomenal and is currently in the 96th percentile in xERA (2.31); his actual ERA is 3.33, and xBA (.187), and his actual OBA is (.190)!

A matchup with Seattle is a dream for Crochet – the Mariners have the most strikeouts in MLB, and the southpaw has the second-most strikeouts (103) behind Tyler Glasnow (104) of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

On the other side, Mariners starter Luis Castillo has been one of the premier starting pitchers in the league for nearly a decade. This is a terrific buy-low spot on Castillo.

The right-hander hasn’t posted the best stats this season with a 3.35 ERA and an xBA of .245, but that’s nothing a date against the White Sox lineup can’t fix! In his last two career starts against the White Sox, he has a 28% strikeout percentage and a .181 batting average against across 83 at-bats vs Chicago’s projected lineup.

Castillo has an elite Chase rate of 31.8% and a Whiff rate of 27.7%. The White Sox have been decimated by injuries, which has led to poor offensive numbers, including the lowest OPS and batting average in the league (.217)!

Before his last outing, Castillo allowed two runs or fewer in 10 straight starts. Crochet has allowed one run or less in five of his previous seven starts. Before we lock this in, the Mariners also have the lowest batting average in the bigs against lefties (.215). Bank on a pitcher’s duel in this one.

 

 

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

 

Questions Of The Day

What is the best First 5 MLB pick tonight?


I like the New York Mets to get out to an early lead and cover the ½ run betting line against the Miami Marlins.

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