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Thursday First Five: Bet Diamondbacks to Come Out Swinging

In MLB betting, focusing on a baseball game’s first five innings (F5) can provide unique insights, opportunities and, most importantly, profits.

This approach is particularly potent when considering the Arizona Diamondbacks, who excel in early-game performance and lead the league in scoring during this period. With their formidable offense and a good matchup with the San Francisco Giants and Logan Webb, they are a strong contender to eclipse the team’s total MLB odds of 1.5 runs in their matchup on Thursday night in San Francisco.

Thursday First Five: Bet Diamondbacks to Come Out Swinging
Christian Walker #53 of the Arizona Diamondbacks-Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP


F5 Pick: Diamondbacks Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-110)

Highlighting the correct stats from just the first five innings can be tricky. But the Diamondbacks make it easy with the highest average runs per game in the MLB during the first five frames. With an average of 4.26 runs, they outpace the second-best team by quite a lot and give us an excellent opportunity to bet online Thursday night.

You might scoff at this and simply chalk the Diamondbacks’ early-game scoring average up to their playing in the thin desert air of Phoenix. And while it pays to be skeptical, you’d be off base in this case. The Diamondbacks score more at home than on the road – 4.38 runs compared to 4.00 – but even on the road, they rank second in the league. So it’s not just playing half their games in a hitter-friendly climate.

Let’s turn our attention to the Giants, Arizona’s opponent on Thursday. While the Diamondbacks excel in early-game scoring, the Giants struggle in the first five innings, ranking third in allowing runs. With an average of 3.11 runs allowed in the first half of games, they present a prime opportunity for a successful MLB bet against them in this spot. This should make our audience feel optimistic about the Diamondbacks’ chances.

Logan Webb (1-1, 3.80) will make the start for San Francisco on Thursday, and while his numbers are decent, I’m still looking to back Arizona to score early and fairly often. After all, they only need to score twice to cash this MLB pick.

The Giants have allowed 2+ runs in the first five innings twice this season when Webb takes the mound, which is good enough for me to take a shot with this prop. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have a history of dominating the righty. With a .296 team average in 125 at-bats, Arizona has caused Webb problems in the past, and my money is on that trend to continue on Thursday evening in the Bay Area.

This is one of my best bets in the MLB Thursday, and I will put two units on Arizona early.



Questions Of The Day

Curious about the potential for high returns? Who has the highest F5 Over ROI in the MLB?

The Cleveland Guardians, with an F5 O/U record of 11-3-2, have the highest Under ROI in the MLB at 46.74%.

Which team scores the most runs on average during the first five innings?

The Arizona Diamondbacks lead the MLB in first-inning runs with 4.26 per game, almost 0.50 more than the next team, the Milwaukee Brewers (3.88).

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