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Thursday’s MLB Parlay, Best Bets: Carlos Rodon and Matt Vierling

If you’re looking to hit it big with some savvy MLB bets, look no further than Yankees’ ace Carlos Rodon and Tigers’ slugger Matt Vierling. Rodon has been pitching like he’s found the Fountain of Youth, dazzling with his recent performances, while Vierling is riding a hot streak, smashing home runs and extra-base hits with alarming regularity.

 

MLB Thursday Parlay: Bet Big on Carlos Rodon, Matt Vierling!
Carlos Rodón #55 of the New York Yankees | Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP

With Rodon set to face the Angels and Vierling taking on Nick Pivetta and the Red Sox, these bets are primed to cash in. Let’s dive into why these MLB betting picks are the smart money moves for today.

 

Yankees SP Carlos Rodon Under 2.5 Earned Runs

After a season marked by injuries and setbacks, Rodon has emerged as a force to be reckoned with on the mound. His recent performance, including four consecutive starts with at least 18 outs and two or fewer earned runs, is a testament to his skill and resilience. This is his first such streak since June 2022, a clear sign of his resurgence.


In his last start, the Padres’ hitters looked like they were swinging at ghosts. They went a combined 3-for-15 on his four-seam fastball and an abysmal 0-for-5 on his sliders. Outside of one “oopsie” at Camden Yards, where he allowed seven runs in four innings, Rodon has pitched to a pristine 1.45 ERA with a 33:8 K ratio in his other six previous starts.

While it’s true that the Angels have been successful against left-handed pitching, ranking in the top five in wRC+ and BABIP, it’s important to consider the context. Rodon and the Yankees pitching staff have been consistently strong, with Rodon’s performance standing out. The Angels may have had a good run, cashing in on their team total over 31 of their last 51 games, but Rodon is a different caliber pitcher.

Let’s drop some numbers to solidify this case. Hitters have swung at just 43% of Rodon’s pitches with two strikes over the last two weeks, the second lowest in MLB. His inside fastballs have resulted in a groundball rate of a mere 10% this season—the lowest among qualified starters. Opponents’ overall groundball rate against him is 33%, the third lowest in MLB.

But wait, there’s more. Rodon’s strikeout rate with runners in scoring position since 2022 is a stellar 35%, the best MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched. In the world of pitching, he’s basically the Zeus of strikeouts—lightning bolts and all!

So, if you want a bet that’s as solid as Rodon’s fastball, look no further than the Under 2.5 earned runs against the Angels. With Rodon’s current form, the Angels are in for a tough night. Bet on Rodon to keep the runs at bay and enjoy the show.

 

 

Tigers 3B Matt Vierling Over 1.5 Bases From Hits

This Tigers third baseman has been hitting bombs like he’s channeling Babe Ruth, and we’re here to ride the wave. With home runs in three of his last four games, Vierling has been cashing in on the Over, bringing in a whopping +22.50 units, a 562% ROI. That’s hotter than a summer day in the Sahara.


Over the last 30 days, he’s kept his strikeout rate to a modest 22.4% and has been hitting a smooth 31.4% line drives. Ground balls? He’s only hitting them 31.4% of the time.

Enter Nick Pivetta of the Boston Red Sox. Pivetta is like a fire-breathing dragon on the mound, striking out batters left and right. But here’s the catch—when hitters make contact, they launch cannonballs. Pivetta has allowed a .271 ISO and a wOBA of .351 to his first 62 righties this season. And the hard contact? A jaw-dropping 45.2% with a 14.3% barrel percentage. If Pivetta were a piñata, candy would be littering the landscape.

Despite the Tigers’ struggles, Vierling has been a bright spot, adding his seventh homer to his tally and maintaining a .289 batting average. Sure, his walk rate might be low, and he strikes out a bit more than we’d like, but when it comes to power, he’s got the goods.

So, why should you consider betting on Vierling to go Over 1.5 total bases from hits against Pivetta? The answer lies in the strategic analysis of their performance. With Vierling’s ability to make hard contact, low strikeout rate against righties, and Pivetta’s tendency to give up hard-hit balls, the odds are in Vierling’s favor. We’re talking extra-base hits, folks. Get ready for some fireworks!

 

 

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

 

Question of the Day

Who leads the MLB in RBIs?


Guardians’ slugger Jose Ramirez leads the MLB with 56 RBIs on the season.

 

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