Today’s Best YRFI/NRFI Bets: Harper, Phils Size up Bradley, Rays on 9/10

· Sep 10 - 7 minutes read

We look over our best YRFI/NRFI bets for today
Ranger and Taj square off in Philly
Padres head to Seattle with Darvish on the mound
Read on for some matchup analysis and then take our suggestions to the BetUS Sportsbook.

We split a pair of RIFI picks on Monday to start the week, nailing our headliner in Dodger Stadium. With 15 games on the schedule tonight we have loads of options to build a winning ticket.

Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies/Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images/AFP

Read on to get my MLB predictions today and good luck with your wagers!

3 NRFI/YRFI Bets for Sept. 10

1. Rays vs Phillies: Bad Brad-ley a prime target for Philly

After a walk-off win in the series opener, the Phillies are a step closer to what looks like an inevitable NL East title. They’ll try to inch further along that path behind Ranger Suarez on Tuesday as this interleague set continues.

Philly’s hype level after Kody Clemens walks it off 🗣️📶

NTT #BallparkCam | @Phillies pic.twitter.com/59SFc2c2Vq

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) September 10, 2024

Suarez was on a Cy Young trajectory early in the season. While he’ll still garner some top-five votes, it’s been a bumpier ride ever since late June. The 29-year-old spent a month on the injured list and had an ERA of 5.91 over his last seven starts, although he did fire five shutout frames at Miami his last time out.

Through it all, Suarez has been a so-so first-inning pitcher, better of late but definitely hittable from time to time earlier in the year. He’s given up 10 runs in his 23 opening frames overall, is a bit less dominant at home, and will be taking on a Tampa Bay unit that is tied for sixth in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage on the road (33.3).

While Suarez is probably a 50-50 proposition in this scenario, Taj Bradley is most decidedly not. He’s hit a wall with an 8.92 ERA since the end of July, giving up eight home runs over his last five outings.

Bradley has a remarkable 32 strikeouts against just two walks in the first inning this year. While very impressive, it also means he’s spending a lot of time in the zone. Opponents are batting .277 with a pretty healthy .482 slugging percentage against him in that frame, and the Phillies are the kind of team that can feast on a guy like this.

Only three teams have scored more first-inning runs this year than Philadelphia. We think they’ll have an opportunity against Bradley on Tuesday night, and you have a chance for a winning bet online.

Bet on Rays-Phillies First Inning to Score – YES

2. Padres vs Mariners: T-Mobile a nice spot for Darvish, Kirby

Just as we like to visit Coors Field or perhaps Fenway Park or Chase Field for some early scoring MLB picks, it’s often safe to utilize T-Mobile Park for a scoreless first. It’s far and away the most pitcher-friendly environment this year, and Tuesday’s pitching matchup in a big one against the Padres presents an opportunity.

George Kirby is one of the many who have enjoyed pitching in Seattle. He owns a 2.94 ERA there, compared to 4.10 on the road, and has allowed two first-inning runs in Jet City since early April.

San Diego has been a force at the plate lately, but it has cooled off just a tad. The Padres are averaging 4.3 runs during their current 4-4 stretch. Kirby has a chance here for a quick first frame.

Yu Darvish is on the mound for San Diego as he makes his second start since coming off the injured list. The first one didn’t go so well, as he let up three runs in 2⅔ innings against Detroit at home.

It was truly a shake-off-the-rust kinda effort for the veteran, who did get 11 swings and misses and showed pretty good velocity. He’s allowed just two runs in 12 first innings this year and has held the Mariners to a .189 average in his last four starts in Seattle.

The Mariners are dead last in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage at home (20.29), one of the many indications of T-Mobile’s tendencies.

Bet on Padres-Mariners First Inning to Score – NO

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3. Braves vs Nationals: The Gore-y details

The Atlanta Braves snuck in a makeup game vs Cincinnati on Monday at home but looked as if they’d just rather skip it. At one point 17 straight Braves were retired by Nick Martinez and the hosts fell a game out in the wild card race.

They’ll try to turn the page in a hurry with a visit to Washington on Tuesday. MacKenzie Gore will try to keep Atlanta off the board as he puts together a pretty impressive stretch run for the Nationals.

The former first-round pick is 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA over his last three starts, notching 19 strikeouts against two walks in that frame. One of the gems was at Atlanta on Aug. 23, when he led Washington to a 5-2 win with six outstanding innings.

Gore has a 3.21 ERA in the first inning while piling up 36 strikeouts in 28 frames. Walks are an occasional issue but the Braves are tied for 19th in the majors in drawing free passes, so he has a shot at avoiding that bugaboo.

Atlanta is also 27th in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage on the road (20.55), so several numbers are in Gore’s favor for an MLB bet.

A month on the injured list has kept Reynaldo Lopez from reaching a qualification status, but he’d otherwise be headed toward a potential ERA crown. The veteran enters with a stellar 2.04 mark – 1.96 since coming off the IL last month.

Lopez allowed a run on just three hits in six innings vs Washington a few turns ago and posted a quality start in D.C. earlier in the year. He’s surrendered two runs in 23 first innings all year, almost always bursting out of the gate with a clean opening frame.

The Nationals are the only team in baseball that scores in the first inning under 20 percent of the time. Don’t overthink this one.

Bet on Braves-Nationals First Inning to Score – NO

Question Of The Day

Which wild-card contender that’s currently out of the field has the best shot to get in?

As mentioned, Atlanta is just a game out so it figures to be in the mix until the end. We like what’s going on in Detroit, which has a true ace, a strong bullpen, and plays very good defense. Perhaps most important is the fact that the Tigers have one of the easier remaining schedules with the Rockies and White Sox among the last few series. They’re three games out of a wild card spot entering Tuesday and just might sneak in the back door.