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Tuesday MLB Player Props: Fade Suarez, Cortes in O’s-Yankees Game

We have another beautiful schedule of MLB games on Tuesday and our consistently profitable MLB picks, which have led us to a 19-11 record in June, are here to deliver. After splitting our four picks to begin the week, I’m looking for the elusive sweep tonight as we approach the start of summer!

After most teams had a day off on Monday, all 30 clubs will take the field today. We have some exciting series set to get underway, including some marquee matchups. The New York Yankees will host the Baltimore Orioles as each looks to establish dominance in the American League. Another series of note is the showdown between a pair of division leaders when the Seattle Mariners battle the Cleveland Guardians.

Tuesday MLB Player Props: Fade Suarez, Cortes in O’s-Yankees Game
Albert Suárez #49 | Scott Taetsch/Getty Images/AFP

Plenty of options exist for MLB player prop bets today. However, I’ve done the hard work of narrowing down the best for you based on specific criteria and in-depth analysis, ensuring you’re well-informed before making your bets. Get ready for an exciting day of MLB action!

 

Best MLB Player Props Today

 

Rays SP Aaron Civale Over 2½ Earned Runs (-130)

I was searching high and low for the best way to back Minnesota tonight, and I settled here. The Tampa Bay Rays begin a three-game series at Target Field against the Twins. Tampa Bay will send 28-year-old Aaron Civale to the rubber. Civale will make his 15th start of the season and I expect the suddenly scorching-hot Twinkies to produce against him.

The righty began his career as a promising arm with Cleveland but has fallen off tremendously in 2024. In his second season with the Rays after he was traded last summer, he has a 5.20 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP through his first 14 outings in 2024.

Since being traded to Tampa Bay, he has given up at least three earned runs in 13 of 24 starts (54%). Civale has allowed three earned runs in seven of 14 starts this season, including seven of his last 11.

Betting against a Rays pitcher can be tricky sometimes because manager Kevin Cash never hesitates to go to his bullpen. Civale has not pitched beyond the fifth inning since April. Therefore, we’ll need the Twins bats to jump on him early. He has made seven starts against Minnesota since 2020, allowing at least three earned in four.

Since getting clobbered by the Yankees earlier this month, Minnesota has enjoyed three consecutive series against below-average teams. They have won seven of their last 10 – against the Pirates, Rockies and Athletics – and their offense has erupted.

The Twins are in the top 10 in runs scored and runs at home. They have the seventh-highest OPS (.756) at home. Over the last week, they rank first in OPS (.1084) and have a whopping .392 batting average. The return of Royce Lewis to the lineup has ignited this team, and Carlos Correa was named AL Player of the Week. Trust the Twins lineup to keep mashing!

 

 

Orioles SP Albert Suarez Over 4½ Hits Allowed (-136)

The Yankees stumbled over the weekend, dropping two of three games to the rival Red Sox at Fenway Park. The Bronx Bombers return home and will host the Orioles, who sit 1½ games behind New York in the AL East. New York first baseman Anthony Rizzo fractured his arm during Sunday’s loss, so there will be a shakeup of the lineup, but we can trust the Bombers to get back on track.

Despite dropping two of three against Boston over the weekend, New York has the best record in MLB (50-24). The Yankees have a +124 run differential, the best mark in the bigs. Baltimore took three of four in their first series in Camden Yards, so I expect the Yankees to come out motivated to make a statement.

The O’s have been terrific in 2024, but the back end of their rotation is due for regression. They have an excellent young core led by Gunnar Henderson, who has exploded onto the scene. The Orioles will send 34-year-old right-hander Albert Suarez to the bump in Tuesday’s series opener.

After pitching overseas, journeyman Suarez is pitching in the bigs for the first time since 2017. He has made seven starts this season and allowed at least five hits in just two. He owns a 1.61 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. These are solid numbers on paper, but I’m not high on Suarez, and you shouldn’t be either. He has been about as average as it comes and has enjoyed throwing against four consecutive struggling lineups. His 87 Stuff+ rating leaves more to be desired.

Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton should jump all over Suarez. The right-hander leans on his underwhelming 95 mph, four-seam fastball, throwing it 54% of the time.

The Yankees have the highest OPS in the league against right-handed pitchers (.782), the fourth-highest batting average (.255), and an MLB-best 125 wRC+ against righties. The Yankees have at least six hits against 13 of the last 19 starters faced. Fire up the Yankees ahead of this exciting series.

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Yankees SP Nestor Cortes Over 2½ Earned Runs (-110)

We will stay in the Bronx as all eyes will be on this matchup between these AL powerhouses. The Yanks will send veteran southpaw Nestor Cortes to the mound. He struggled in 2023 but is starting to return to his 2022 form. Cortes is a fun pitcher to watch and relies on getting soft contact, but he’s not doing that so far in 2023. He ranks in the 17th percentile in Hard-Hit % so far this season.

Cortes will make his 16th start of the season. I expect the O’s to produce against the left-hander. Baltimore is red-hot coming into this series, winning 17 of its last 23 and taking two of three over the weekend against the National League-leading Phillies.

Nasty Nestor has thrown well to this point at Yankee Stadium. He has four scoreless outings in seven home starts. He has a 3.59 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP but a 1.77 ERA at home. So why am I fading him?

Cortes made one start against Baltimore this season on the road, throwing six innings and allowing eight hits and four earned runs. Cortes has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight of 15 starts this season. Cortes typically throws deep into games, giving Baltimore ample opportunities to put three runs on the board. Last season, he made one start against Baltimore at home and allowed four earned runs in six innings of work.

The Orioles have scored the third-most runs (364) in MLB and have the third-highest OPS (.761), behind only the Yankees (.775) and the Dodgers (.767). The O’s have been phenomenal against lefties. They have the second-most homers, eighth-highest batting average (.261) and third-highest OPS (.782). Baltimore is second in wRC+ against lefties this season.

Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson have been tremendous against lefties, ranking third and seventh in OPS among all hitters against southpaws. Look for Rutschman to do damage. He owns the best batting average against lefties in MLB (.420). Bank on Baltimore to push at least three runs across the plate against Cortes.

 

 

Questions of the Day

Who will record the most strikeouts in Tuesday’s MLB Games?


Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo is projected to record the most strikeouts on Tuesday night when Cincinnati battles the Pittsburgh Pirates.

What is the best MLB player prop bet on Tuesday night?


The best player prop bet on Tuesday night is Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Albert Suarez over 4½ hits allowed against the New York Yankees.

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