Twins vs Braves Prediction, Picks and MLB Prop Bets for April 18: Back Atlanta (-1.5)

Coming off a six-game road trip which saw the team lose four games, the 5-13 Atlanta Braves, preseason MLB futures odds contenders, are looking to turn their recent form around when they host the 7-12 Minnesota Twins for the first game of a weekend series tonight.

As Chris Paddack (0-2, 9.49 ERA) takes the mound for Minnesota against Atlanta´s Bryce Elder (0-1, 7.20 ERA), if you´re looking to bet on MLB action tonight, target a high-scoring game at Truist Park.

With Atlanta coming in as -143 favorites to win at home, let’s break down the best game picks and MLB player props for tonight’s Braves vs Twins game, set to start at 7:15 p.m. ET.

Twins vs Braves Prediction Today, April 18, 2025

My prediction

• Run Line Pick: Braves -1.5 (+144)

Doing a quick comparison of Atlanta’s and Minnesota´s lineups, there’s not much wiggle room for any of the two teams to stand up and truly take dominance in this series. With that said, playing at home, and facing a pitcher with a 9.49 ERA like Paddack, I like the Braves covering the 1.5 run line here as part of my MLB game predictions today.

The Braves need a strong win at home in front of their fans to try and start straightening out their season before it’s not worth it anymore. They have the better offense and Alex Verdugo’s debut in the lineup will do wonders here.

Bet on Braves -1.5 (+144)

• Over/Under Pick: Twins vs Braves Over 8 (-115)

Not a lot of games offer as many favorable conditions to bet the over like this Twins vs Braves matchup tonight. But don’t just take my word for it: Here’s a short MLB expert analysis as to why.

First Truist Park stands out as a very hitter-friendly field. Second, the odds of this being a pitcher’s duel are so slim it’s almost impossible to notice them. Between Elder’s lack of control vs strong hitting and Paddack holding one of the worst ERA’s in the league, I’d expect runs by the boatload tonight.

Lastly when looking at previous trends, four of Atlanta’s last five games have gone over. If you do the math real quick, it all adds up, take the total going over 8.5 at -105.

Bet on Twins vs Braves Over 8 (-115)

Twins vs Braves Prop Picks and Best Bets

• Alex Verdugo Over 0.5 Hits (-159)

While some people out there might be calling Atlanta’s move to bring up Alex Verdugo into the active roster as “desperate,” I’m not one of those. I believe the former Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees player is exactly what the Braves need in this series. Especially as they try to bring some heat back into their batting lineup.

Verdugo holds a .353 batting average against Minnesota with four home runs and 15 extra base hits in 26 games, meaning he knows how to beat up on the Twins. If Paddack starts struggling from early on in the game, Verdugo will easily get at least one hit tonight, making this MLB prop pick a very easy one to buy into.

Bet on Alex Verdugo Over 0.5 Hits (-159)

• Twins vs Braves Under 16.5 Hits (-115)

I want to believe hits will be flying off the plate here tonight, but while I see this being a game where the total will go over 8.5 runs, I don’t necessarily see both teams hitting for over 16.5 hits combined.

Both teams come into this series in the bottom third of hits, according to early MLB betting trends. I’m leaning more towards power-hitting being key here, especially for Atlanta, which is why I say go over in the total, but stay under in combined hits.

Bet on Twins vs Braves Under 16.5 Hits (-115)

• Twins vs Braves YRFI (-110)

With both starting pitchers allowing runs like they were running a clearance sale on the plate, how can you not take there at least one run in the first inning as one of tonight’s MLB game prop picks?

Atlanta seriously needs to kick this series off with a strong win tonight. To do so, it’s offense has to be ready to come out and swing at everything Paddack dishes out, which should lead to an early lead for the Braves, as early as in the first inning.

Bet on Twins vs Braves YRFI (-110)

Twins vs Braves How to Watch

• Game: Twins (7-12) vs Braves (5-13)
• Date/Time: Friday, April 18, 7:15 p.m. ET
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta
• Twins vs Braves Live Stream: MLB.tv

Check here for Twins vs Braves stats.

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Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets