U.S. vs Japan Prediction, Game Preview, Live Stream, Odds and Picks
Americans Bidding for Back-to-Back Titles
Japan Lone Unbeaten in World Baseball Classic
The World Baseball Classic is down to the final two teams with the United States looking to win back-to-back titles against Japan, the only undefeated team in the tournament.
Both teams needed late-inning heroics to keep their title hopes alive. Trea Turner’s grand slam saved the U.S. from elimination in the quarterfinals against Venezuela while Munetaka Murakami, the reigning National Pro Baseball MVP, delivered with a two-run double in the bottom of the ninth inning to give Japan a 6-5 win over Mexico in the semifinals.
For those suggesting this is a meaningless exhibition that should be shelved following the unfortunate injuries suffered by New York Mets closer Edwin Diaz and Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve, perhaps it would be wise to take a look at the outpouring of emotions from the players following those clutch hits. With no March Madness action and spring training still going on, this game will dominate the MLB news cycle.
Japan won the first two World Baseball Classic championships, topping Cuba in the 2006 title game and beating South Korea in 10 innings to win the 2009 title. The United States topped Puerto Rico in the 2017 title contest.
When looking at the World Baseball Classic picks, the U.S. (+105) and Japan (+130) were the favorites going into the semifinals.
The World Classic Baseball odds favor the United States in Tuesday’s title game.
Japan: More Than Just Ohtani
Naturally, former American League Most Valuable Player Shohei Ohtani started the ninth-inning rally against Mexico with a double, setting the stage for the walk-on win.
Beautiful angle of Samurai Japan’s bench watching Murakami’s walk off pic.twitter.com/VqTLQk1nBZ
— Yakyu Cosmopolitan (@yakyucosmo) March 21, 2023
Ohtani hasn’t disappointed with a .450 average, nine runs, four doubles, a home run and eight RBIs. He has had plenty of help.
Masataka Yoshida leads the tournament with 13 RBIs to go with a .474 average and three extra-base hits in six games. Kazuma Okamoto (.565 on-base percentage, six RBIs) and Kensuke Kondoh (.391 average, nine runs, five extra-base hits) have been among the other top hitters as Japan has gone 6-0 and outscored its opponents 53-16 in the tournament.
Ohtani has two of Japan’s six wins in the tournament. However, it is Shota Imanaga who is slated to get the start on Tuesday night. He has allowed three hits and one run with five strikeouts in four innings in two relief appearances in the tournament.
Japan used four pitchers in Monday’s semifinal final. Roki Sasaki and Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw 64 and 52 pitches, respectively, so they will be unavailable in what could be a bullpen-type of game for Japan.
Kelly Gets Ball for U.S. Team
Coming into the tournament, the question is whether the United States had the pitching to hold up for the entire tournament. The answer could come when Merrill Kelly gets the starting assignment.
It took nine years after Kelly signed with the Tampa Bay Rays following his selection in the 2010 Major League Baseball Draft for Kelly to break into the majors. He has gone 36-35 in four seasons with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He was 13-8 with a 3.37 ERA during the 2022 season.
After putting up 13 runs in a win over Cuba in the semifinals, will the lineup look that much different?
Mookie Betts, Mike Trout (.318, seven RBIs), Paul Goldschmidt (.333, eight runs) and Nolan Arenado (.391, four extra-base hits) figure to hold down the Nos. 1-4 spots in the order once again.
The most productive hitter has been Turner with four home runs and 10 RBIs to go with a .368 batting average. Tim Anderson is another player who has thrived at the bottom of the U.S. order.
Japan vs United States Game Information
- Game: Japan (6-0) vs United States (5-1)
- Location: LoanDepot Park, Miami
- Day/Time: Tuesday, March 21, 7:00 p.m. ET
- U.S. vs Japan Live Stream: WBS
Japan vs United States Betting Lines
Japan vs United States Picks and Prediction
The starting pitching matchup doesn’t have the big stars and that could result in plenty of money coming in on the over. The World Baseball Classic odds are showing the total at 10. The best odds are for the U.S. to win by at least four runs as that carries a price of +265 followed by Japan winning by four runs or more coming in at +375.
Much of the attention will be focused on Los Angeles Angels teammates Ohtani and Trout – and with good reason as the MLB predictions list them as the top two picks in the American League MVP odds. Both teams have other talented stars. Betts and Goldschmidt are among the contenders in the National League MVP odds.
When the teams met in the 2017 semifinal, the result was 2-1 win by the Americans with a pair of Japanese errors proving costly.
Marcus Stroman allowed one hit in six innings and was the tournament MVP. Ian Kinsler, Arenado, Giancarlo Stanton and Andrew McCutchen each had two hits in the 8-0 win over Puerto Rico. Arenado is back trying to win another title. Japan could get plenty of action thanks to its perfect record However, it is hard to go against the star-studded U.S. lineup as neither Ohtani nor Yu Darvish is expected to get the start.
Japan is listed at -105 in our Vegas WBC lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Japan, you have a chance to win $95. USA is -135, offering a chance to win $74 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Japan a 51.22% chance to win, with USA at 57.45%.
