The 2023 NL Most Valuable Player race will be tight, with no fewer than three San Diego Padres among the top 10 candidates. Juan Soto leads the way with odds of +550 despite a rough 2022 and a change of venue. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mookie Betts round out the top three with odds of +750 and +900, respectively. Meanwhile, reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt is +1000 to repeat.
However, none of those candidates is my pick for the NL MVP in 2023.
1. Soto +550
After winning an NL batting title, World Series, and several Silver Slugger awards, this could be Soto’s year to take home his first MVP award. Despite a field that seems wide open, Soto has emerged as the early favorite and leads the MLB lines for 2023’s MVP race. This is even though his 2022 numbers were far from MVP quality, with a .240 average and 27 home runs over 153 games.
Soto has all the talent in the world, but it’s a lot to expect him to surge back into the MVP conversation with a new team and coming off a rough 2022. The MLB news from me is to avoid Soto here; maybe bet on the San Diego Padres outfielder for Comeback Player of the Year instead.
2ND DECK SHOT FOR JUAN SOTO! 💪🤯
Dominican Republic is rolling! pic.twitter.com/RHrncFZPzP
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) March 13, 2023
2. Acuna Jr. +750
Ronald Acuna Jr. is another respected name on this list, but he lacks value at the Las Vegas MLB odds of +750. At +1100, I would pull the trigger, but not a +750. Let’s not forget that Acuna is heading into his first full season following an ACL tear in 2021 and looked every bit the superstar in 119 games in 2022. He stole 28 bases, hit 15 home runs and bats atop an Atlanta Braves lineup predicted to be one of the best in the league.
My gripe with Acuna is that he finished last season with an underwhelming .266 average and never looked totally comfortable at the plate after tearing his ACL. Nothing against his talent, but every player on this list is the best at what they do, and I’m not sure Acuna can set himself apart sufficiently.
3. Betts +900
The Los Angeles Dodgers’ Mookie Betts has the third-best odds to win the MVP after crushing a career-high 35 long balls in 2022. He is one of the most talented hitters in the majors and hits atop one of the most fearsome lineups in baseball. This leads me to why I don’t trust Betts in this spot. As talented as he is, I think teammate Freddie Freeman at +1200 is a better MLB bet for the 2023 MVP. Freeman is not my MLB prediction, but I’d pick him over Betts if it came down to it.
4. Best MLB Bet: Turner +1000
Trea Turner became one of the biggest free agent signings during the offseason, moving from the Los Angeles Dodgers to the Philadelphia Phillies. Turner looks to immediately impact the reigning NL champions after hitting .298 with 100 RBIs and 27 stolen bases in LA last season. He added 21 home runs and 101 runs scored.
Trea Turner’s final WBC stats:
.391/.440/1.043 (1.483 OPS), 5 HR pic.twitter.com/OQL41YaV0r
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) March 22, 2023
Turner has a fantastic mix of speed and power that should only be more evident in 2023. One reason for this is the new MLB rules on balks and the size of the bases. With 4.5 fewer inches to run, and limited pickoff attempts per batter, Turner could swipe many bases in 2023. Once Bryce Harper returns around the All-Star break, the added offense could be the final push Turner needs to secure an MVP for Philly.
He has a lot of work, but Turner is my MLB bet to win the NL MVP this season. If his numbers during the World Baseball Classic are any indication, Turner is ready to hit the ground running.
