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Yankees Sure Bet as MLB Friday First Five Inning Pick

Prepare for another chapter in baseball’s greatest rivalry as the New York Yankees ship to Boston to take on the Red Sox. Boston might have just climbed to .500 with a series win over Philly, but the Red Sox still sit 13 games behind the blazing-hot Yankees, who have been perched atop the American League East since Opening Day. New York is the MLB online betting favorite with their surprising Cy Young contender, Luis Gil, on the mound.


Yankees Sure Bet as MLB Friday First Five Inning Pick
Luis Gil #81 of the New York Yankees | Luke Hales/Getty Images/AFP

With Gil getting the nod, I want to focus on the first five innings of this game with my MLB picks for Friday. Let’s dive right in because there is a lot to cover for just an F5 inning play.

First Five Innings Bet: Yankees -½ (-110)

Luis Gil has emerged as the breakout star of the 2024 season, stepping up admirably in the absence of Gerrit Cole. His performance has been as reliable as your grandma’s apple pie recipe, boasting an impressive 8-1 record and a sparkling 2.04 ERA over 13 starts. Ranked second in the AL in ERA, Gil’s pitches, including a 97 mph fastball, a wicked slider and changeup, have been a challenge for batters to hit. Opponents are hitting just .137 against him, which is like trying to bat against a ghost.

Righties are hitting a microscopic .144, and when Gil gets two strikes on you, it’s game over. Batters are hitting .079 against him with two strikes. That’s like trying to thread a needle in the dark. Sure, he’s got a walk rate of nearly 12%, but he makes up for it by getting weak contact and striking out 30.7% of batters. Gil’s been a rock and ready to roll over the Red Sox.



On the flip side, we have Brayan Bello, who’s been about as reliable as a two-dollar watch. He’s allowed at least three runs in five straight games, sporting a 6.75 ERA over that stretch. His overall season stats aren’t much better, with a 4.78 ERA and 4.33 xERA. Opponents have been teeing off on him, hitting .330 wOBA with a 42.1% hard-hit rate.

Bello’s sinker, which he throws over 40% of the time, has been getting smacked around with opponents are hitting .337 with a .412 wOBA against it.

And guess who crushes sinkers? The New York Yankees. The dynamic duo, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, are in beast mode. Judge is hitting .417 with a 1.538 OPS over the last two weeks, with 16 runs and 23 RBIs in his previous 13 games. He’s belted four homers in his last six games, eight in his previous 13 and 15 in the last 27. He’s the best hitter on the planet right now, and it’s not even close.

Soto’s not far behind, and they both rank in the top five in the league against sinkers. Throw in Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton, who also feast on sinkers, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster for Bello.


The Yankees have been covering the first five innings spread like it’s their job. They’ve covered the F5 run line in 30 of their last 37 games, hit the F5 moneyline in 29 of their previous 40 games and exceeded the F5 team total in 34 of their last 48 games. This consistent performance in covering the F5 spread indicates that the Yankees are a strong bet to cover the first five-inning spread against the Red Sox.

So, bet on the Bronx Bombers to cover the first five-inning spread of -0.5 against the Red Sox. With Gil on the mound and the Yankees’ bats ready to tee off on Bello, this bet is a no-brainer. The Sox might have a better bullpen, but the damage will be done by the time they get there. Yankees to cover the F5 spread? Take it to the bank!



Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.


Questions of the Day

Which team has the best F5 inning ATS ROI on the road?

The Cleveland Guardians have the best F5 inning ATS ROI when playing on the road at 23.09%.

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