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Yankees vs Guardians Predictions, Preview, Odds, Stream, Picks Oct 15

Guardians Hope to Seize Series Control in Pivotal Game 3

Yankees Need Judge To Find Stroke

In two games at Yankee Stadium, the Cleveland Guardians managed to slowly assert their style of play over the homer-happy New York Yankees. They also pitched well enough to get fans in the Bronx to actually boo Aaron Judge, no small feat in his incredible campaign.

The Yankees and Judge will try to regain control of the best-of-five American League Division Series when it shifts to Cleveland on Saturday night.

Yankees vs Guardians
Sarah Stier/Getty Images/AFP

Let’s check the latest MLB odds, stats, injury reports, and MLB lines for Yankees vs Guardians. We’ve plenty of MLB spreads for you to consider.

Severino Gets Nod in Crucial Contest for Yankees

After Gerrit Cole shut down the Guardians in Game 1, the Yankees saw Nestor Cortes and a slew of relievers put too many Guardians on base in Friday’s 4-2 loss. That’s what makes Cleveland go, and the Guardians pushed the issue on the basepaths throughout the game, most notably when Jose Ramirez led off the decisive 10th-inning rally with a bloop to left that turned into a double and a one-base error.

It is so much easier said than done, but these Guardians simply can’t be given the chance to wreak havoc on you with their hustle, stolen bases and relentless desire to keep pressure on opponents. That responsibility in Game 3 falls to Luis Severino, who has a rather spotty postseason resume.

Severino only once lasted longer than 4⅓ innings in his eight career postseason starts, during which he has posted a 5.17 ERA. The one occasion in which he went seven strong was against Cleveland, but that was all the way back in 2017 and shouldn’t have any bearing on the MLB spreads.

What is relevant is the fact that Severino was 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA after returning from the IL late in the regular season, including the seven hitless innings in his finale at Tampa Bay on Oct. 3.

The Guardians have the decided advantage on the Yankees in the bullpen, so New York needs everything Severino can give.

None of that matters much if the Yankees can’t get Judge to get going. The mighty slugger is 0-for-8 with seven strikeouts in the series. The jeers came down on the 62-homer star after he fanned for the fourth time in Game 2.

“The timing’s a little off, you’re going to be swinging at pitches you don’t normally swing at, and the ones you can hit, you’re just a tick late or tick out in front a little bit,” Judge said. “Just work on that timing and I think it’ll be good to go.”

The Yankees as a whole are batting .180 through the first two games, so it’s not all on Judge. But getting him going is essential if they’re going to survive the two games in Cleveland.

McKenzie on Mound for Guardians

Triston McKenzie was born in Brooklyn and once rooted for the Yankees. Now, the young right-hander has a chance to back his childhood favorites into a corner when he gets the ball for Game 3 in Cleveland.

McKenzie’s favorite player was Derek Jeter and he has a strong bond with CC Sabathia, but all that goes out the window when he stares down the Pinstripes.

“I’m out here to win,” he said. “Doesn’t matter who is across the field.”

It didn’t matter much in a July 3 start against the Yankees in Cleveland in which the 25-year-old held New York to one hit in seven scoreless innings. McKenzie also was unscored upon in six frames in that Wild-Card matchup with Tampa Bay that the Guardians eventually won in 15 innings.

In addition, he was electric at home this year, sporting a 2.77 ERA and a minuscule 0.898 WHIP. McKenzie let up only seven home runs in 81⅓ innings at Progressive Field, and taking the longball away from the Yankees leaves them with next to nothing. There’s plenty to like about his chances to dominate, and you should factor that into your MLB picks.

If you need more reason to side with the hosts, consider that the bullpen backing McKenzie has thrown 17⅔ innings in four postseason games, allowing zero runs and only six hits. Sheer dominance.

And if you want another reason to lean Cleveland’s way, factor in the way they played their game on Friday, with a style that led them to a runaway Central Division crown.

“I kind of enjoyed today because we hung around,” manager Terry Francona said. “And I kept thinking, ‘We are going to find a way.’”

Ramirez’s hustle double, which induced a throwing error on top of it, wasn’t the hardest hit ball he’s ever hit, but it was the catalyst for the Guardians. He’s one of the few Cleveland hitters with much experience with Severino, and it’s been mostly positive (5-for-16 with three home runs and five RBIs).

Yankees vs Guardians Game Injuries

Yankees vs Guardians Head-to-Head

Before the loss in Game 2, the Yankees had taken the previous four meetings in Yankee Stadium in 2022. New York had a stretch of six consecutive wins against Cleveland in the playoffs, dating back to the 2017 ALDS. snapped.

Yankees vs Guardians Game Information

  • Game: Yankees vs Guardians
  • Location: Yankee Stadium, Cleveland
  • Day/Time: Saturday, Oct. 15, 7:37 p.m. ET
  • Yankees vs Guardians Live Stream: MLB TV

Take a Look at Other Analysis, Picks & Predictions for Yankees vs Guardians

Yankees vs Guardians Betting Lines

Team Handicap Moneyline Total Team Total
Yankees
L. Severino -R
-1½ +155 -115 6½ -115 3½ -105 3½ -125
Guardians
T. McKenzie -R
+1½ -175 +105 6½ -105 2½ -145 2½ +115

The odds in this chart are based on the time of publication. They are subject to change.

Yankees vs Guardians Prediction

The Yankees are considered slight favorites here. They were, after all, a 99-win team with prodigious power, good starting pitching, and controlled the Guardians during the regular season. That may play out in Game 3, but consider several factors in Cleveland’s favor.

Not only are the Guardians at home, but they may have the edge in McKenzie, who dominated the Yankees during the regular season and pitches well at home, against Severino, whose entire career has been marked by as many downs as ups and whose playoff resume is nothing to write home about.

As long as McKenzie can keep Judge in check, the rest of the Yankees might just fold. Cleveland’s energized bunch will create a couple of odd, but productive, rallies and the superior bullpen will lock this one down.

Yankees vs Guardians Edge

Yankees vs Guardians Results

Yankees vs Guardians Game Summary

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