Yankees vs Guardians 10/18: Top Player Props and Game 4 Predictions

DAVID FRY! BALLGAME! #WALKOFF pic.twitter.com/XzBsU8LKrR

— MLB (@MLB) October 18, 2024

3 MLB Picks to Bet in ALCS Game 4

1. Gil, Gavin Shake off Rust

This is a tricky game, to be sure. Both teams were forced to burn through a good portion of their bullpens in Game 3 and both are starting guys who haven’t pitched in weeks on Thursday.

Luis Gil gets the nod for the Yankees, having last thrown in a game on Sept. 28. A favorite among the MLB odds makers for AL Rookie of the Year, Gil won 15 games and struck out 171 batters in 151⅔ innings. He also walked more batters (77) than anyone in baseball.

Cleveland gives the ball to Gavin Williams, who hasn’t pitched since throwing 5⅔ innings at St. Louis on Sept. 22. He was 0-7 with a 6.55 ERA at home this year and struggled in his one matchup with the Yankees (in New York) on August 22. The 25-year-old needed 98 pitches to get through 4⅓ frames, allowing a solo homer to Aaron Judge and walking four batters.

Remember, the Yankees just hammer righties. The first two right-handed starters the Guardians have thrown in this series – Alex Cobb and Tanner Bibee – combined to allow six runs in four innings. A rested but likely rusty Williams making his playoff debut in a stadium that gave him fits this year and against a team that went 73-45 against righties, well, it makes for a toxic mix.

Take the under on Williams in terms of strikeouts and innings (if you can find some MLB playoff odds), and prey on the fact that he is prone to first-inning damage. He had a 6.32 ERA in that frame this year and will have to contend with Gleyber Torres and then the big boppers.

Gleyber Torres has reached base to lead off six of the seven postseason games pic.twitter.com/SX0polYgte

— Talkin’ Yanks (@TalkinYanks) October 17, 2024

Bet on Gavin Williams to Have Fewer than 3.5 Strikeouts and Yes on Run in First Inning (+240)

2. Kwan Can

Our sample size with Gil and the Guardians (album due out next month!) is limited to one start in 2021 and another in August. In the most recent matchup, however, one item stands out. Steven Kwan faced Gil three times and walked each time.

Kwan has drawn three free passes in the series and is batting .394 in the postseason. We like this to be a game where he has a big impact.

Bet on Steven Kwan to Have at Least Two Runs + RBI (+225)

3. Once Again, Take the Over

We’ve been correctly calling for you to take the over in the NLCS each of the past two days. We urge you to go for the same goal with Game for the ALCS. It’s set at 7.5.

There were 12 runs scored last night and nine the night before and both of those games had markedly better starting pitcher matchups (as well as more rested bullpens). There’s a chance this gets away from one side or another if Gil or Williams is unable to give any length.

A 5-3 game is certainly easy to imagine, as is a 10-8 final. We’re not seeing any kind of pitcher’s duel out of this one, though, so see if you can get something out of a bet online in favor of some runs.

Bet on Yankees vs Guardians Over 7½ Runs (-125)

Question Of The Day

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.