Young Fireballers Lead Our MLB Player Props for Wednesday

Let’s delve into Wednesday’s MLB schedule, which boasts 10 thrilling night matchups. While there are numerous options for MLB player prop bets today, I’ve narrowed down the best for you based on rigorous criteria and comprehensive analysis, ensuring you’re well-prepared before placing your bets. Brace yourself for a day filled with exhilarating MLB action.

I’m eagerly anticipating a bounce back and a successful sweep on Wednesday!

Best MLB Player Props Today

MLB Bet: Pirates SP Jared Jones Over 6½ Strikeouts (-114)

Our faith in Jared Jones remains unwavering! Jones, a budding rookie, is set to take the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight as they host the San Francisco Giants. His last start against the Chicago Cubs saw him strike out seven batters in six innings of work at Wrigley Field, a testament to his growing potential.

Jones, who has been making a name for himself with his impressive strikeout rate, is among the favorites for National League Rookie of the Year, and I expect him to continue to produce strong performances. Tonight he will go up against a Giants team that has been decimated with injuries. San Fran has Nick Ahmed, Michael Conforto and Jung Hoo Lee on the IL.

Through nine career starts:

60 Strikeouts
7 Walks
0.91 WHIP
.208 AVG

Jared Jones has also racked up 7+ strikeouts and 0 walks in five of those starts. pic.twitter.com/7cA6W3EYaO

— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) May 17, 2024

Jones has been phenomenal to start his big league career with a 2.89 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through his first nine starts. He has finished with at least seven strikeouts in seven of nine starts. The 22-year-old right-hander leads all starting pitchers in MLB with a 133 Stuff+ rating! He is in the 97 percentile in Chase % and 95th percentile in WHIFF %. Jones may also be flying under the radar with Paul Skenes now on the big league club. The Giants are one of the better low strikeout teams, but I’m jumping on Jones to finish with at least 7 K’s again.

MLB Bet: Rays SP Ryan Pepiot Over 5½ Strikeouts (-154)

I’m firing on another strikeout prop with our second MLB bet tonight. I have faded the Red Sox all season, which has paid off. The Tampa Bay Rays will send 26-year-old righty Ryan Pepiot to the bump against the Boston Red Sox tonight at Tropicana Field. Pepiot was the key piece of the trade that sent Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers. He is returning from the 15-day IL tonight after a line drive struck him in the leg. Before his short stint on the IL, he emerged as the top arm in Tampa Bay’s starting rotation.

Pepiot was excellent for the Dodgers last season, making eight appearances and posting a 2.14 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and a 7.6 K/BB ratio! He made six starts in April, exceeding this line in four. Before his injury, his four-seam fastball recorded the highest WHIFF% of any four-seamers among starting pitchers. Pepiot posted 117 Stuff+ and an excellent 21.3% K/BB%. He is in the 90 percentile in WHIFF% and 84 percentile in K%.

Boston’s lineup is inferior outside of Rafael Devers. TheRed Sox have the third-highest K% and sixth-highest WHIFF% in MLB. Boston has the third-most strikeouts in MLB, behind only the Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics. Bank on Pepiot to fan at least six Red Sox batters in his return tonight.

Ryan Pepiot’s 10th and 11th Ks. pic.twitter.com/o0LCnofdIQ

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 7, 2024

Mariners SP Bryce Miller Over 2½ Earned Runs (-141)

The New York Yankees had won seven straight entering their current series with the Seattle Mariners, but they dropped the first two games. I expect the Bronx Bombers to bounce back in the third game of this four-game set at home. The Mariners stole the opener, and the Yankees’ offense stalled after a stellar first half of May.

Seattle sends 25-year-old right-hander Bryce Miller to the bump tonight. Miller has made nine starts this season and posted a respectable 3.08 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. In his rookie year in 2023, he owned a 5.18 ERA on the road compared to just 3.65 at home. This season, he has a 4.03 ERA away and 2.37 ERA at home.

In Miller’s first career start against the Yankees last May, he allowed 11 hits and eight earned runs in just 4.2 innings! This Yankees lineup is even better in 2024. New York has had at least five hits against seven of their last eight right-handed starting pitchers it faced. The lineup is much more balanced this season with the additions of left-handed bats.

Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo added an element New York had been missing for years. Miller has been smacked around by lefties, allowing a .261 batting average and .352 wOBA. The Yankees have the third-highest batting average at home among American League teams (.252). The Bombers have the second-highest overall batting average in May (.267). Aaron Judge has been on a tear after a slow start.

Miller is getting extremely lucky. He is in the fifth percentile in barrel percentage and the 12th percentile in hard hit%! Miller has allowed four earned runs in two of his last three starts after an excellent stretch of outings in April. The Bronx Bombers will bounce back tonight.

Questions of the Day

The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.