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YRFI/NRFI Best Bets, 9/18: Toronto’s Bowden Francis looks to maintain dominance

· Sep 18 - 5 minutes read

Carefully read through our MLB picks offered below.
Braves lean on rookie Schwellenbach in a critical game at Cincinnati.
Toronto’s Bowden Francis heads to Arlington on an incredible roll.
Read on for insight into those two games and more before making your daily trip to the BetUS Sportsbook.

We had a 1-2 effort on Tuesday night, but who saw Bryan Woo getting decimated at home (even if it is the Yankees) or Ryan Feltner pitching a gem at Coors? Both of those events went wayyyy against the grain, and that’s sometimes how this MLB betting exercise goes. But the sun came up today and we have a couple more recommendations for you below.

YRFI/NRFI Best Bets, 9/18: Francis looks to maintain dominance — Bowden Francis #44 of the Toronto Blue Jays | Mark Blinch/Getty Images/AFP

Top 2 NRFI/YRFI Bets for 9/18

1. Braves vs Reds: Cincy playing spoiler

The Atlanta Braves have picked an awful time for a three-game losing streak, which has dropped them two games back in the NL wild card race with 11 to play. The big blow in Tuesday’s 6-5 loss was a rather historic one for Cincinnati’s Spencer Steer.

Spencer Steer joins the 20/20 club and the @Reds take the lead! pic.twitter.com/q9KLn4M1qF

— MLB (@MLB) September 18, 2024

The Cincinnati Reds will try to make it two straight over slumping Atlanta behind Jakob Junis, who has quietly had a very effective year for Milwaukee and Cincinnati. He’ll be making his fourth start for the Reds after giving up one run on only four hits in 14 innings over his first three. He’ll be up against a Braves team that’s scored seven total runs during the three-game slide.

In four total starts, Junis has blanked opponents in the first inning while retiring all 12 batters he’s faced. That alone is pretty good precedent for an NRFI bet, but we have to look at the other side of the equation.

That takes us to Spencer Schwellenbach, who has a 2.89 ERA over his last five starts. The 24-year-old rookie has regularly opened his starts in dominant fashion, sporting a 1.50 ERA and .145 opponents’ average in that frame.

The Reds hit an MLB-worst (by a huge margin) .203 in the first innings. We give Schwellenbach a good chance to continue his groove in the early portions of this one. An NRFI choice is a wise bet online.

Bet on Braves vs Reds First Inning to Score – NO (-128)

2. Blue Jays vs Rangers: Bow down to Bowden

These teams combined for 21 runs on 26 hits in the series opener, with Texas taking a 13-8 win behind a big night for Wyatt Langford. We see a quieter evening in Arlington on Wednesday as Bowden Francis and Cody Bradford lock horns.

Bradford is up first as he looks to bounce back from a rough outing at Arizona last week. The 26-year-old’s season has been defined by dominance at home (2.57 ERA) and ineffectiveness on the road (8.10), so a rebound performance would be very much in line with Bradford’s norms.

Wyatt Langford takes one to the opposite field to add on for the @Rangers. pic.twitter.com/L3sTZSWrpW

— MLB (@MLB) September 18, 2024

Through the ups and downs Bradford has been pretty solid in the opening frame. He has a 3.27 ERA in it while holding opponents to a .203 average. He’s allowed one first-inning run in eight starts at Globe Life Field and it came on a solo homer by lefty-smasher Rob Refsnyder back in August.

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The Blue Jays don’t do squat against southpaws, ranking 28th in the majors in OPS (.654) and dead last in homers (25). We like Bradford to tame Toronto early on.

Francis has been the biggest bright spot for the Toronto Blue Jays. He seems to regularly flirt with a no-hitter and is just brimming with confidence on the mound. Over his last six starts, the Chipola College product has gone 4-1 with a 1.26 ERA while allowing 13 hits in 43 innings.

How hot is Bowden Francis right now?

He can glove sign his pitch…
And you still can’t hit it. 🤣 pic.twitter.com/8IDk4m3X9H

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 11, 2024

That’s not a misprint. Thirteen hits in 43 innings. And it’s not like he’s just way out of the zone, too, as the big righty has issued only four free passes in that span. The Texas Rangers have only seen Francis in relief and it was last year, so he’ll stun them if he’s on his game.

Bet on Blue Jays vs Rangers First Inning to Score – NO (-139)

Take A Look At These Other 2 MLB Special Articles

Question of the Day

Any other MLB picks worth making?

We’ve been bullish on Nationals rookie DJ Herz, who has 10 scoreless innings over his last two road starts. He’ll be up against a Mets lineup that while prolific still doesn’t score often in the first inning and likely remains without Francisco Lindor. Jose Quintana, a popular NRFI pick in the past for us, takes on a Nationals lineup that ranks last in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage (19.87). We like a scoreless first here.