YRFI/NRFI Best Bets: Duran, Red Sox Meet Rising Star Crochet

Red Sox at White Sox: Zeroes for Crimson, Pale Hose

It’s getting really ugly on the South Side, where the White Sox have now lost a franchise-record 14 straight games. That’s a team history of 124 seasons with plenty of underwhelming stretches, so it’s pretty significant.

The visiting Red Sox, meanwhile, are back over .500 and feeling good after a 14-2 win in the series opener on Thursday. They’ll try to keep the teams going in opposite directions when they take on Garrett Crochet.

The former first-round pick has been about the best development for the rebuilding White Sox this season. He’s posted quality starts in five of his last six turns, going 4-1 with a tiny 1.03 ERA in that span.

Opponents have recorded only 21 hits in 35 innings during this solid stretch while striking out 46 times. That’s sheer dominance from the tall lefty, who turns 25 in two weeks. The numbers in the first inning tell a similar tale: opponents are 4-for-43 (.093) with 21 strikeouts and one walk.

Boston scored a first-inning run on Tuesday and it can be rather potent when Jarred Duran is doing this seconds into a game. But this is their first look at a guy who is dialed in.

Jarren Duran starts this game off with a bang 😤 pic.twitter.com/dHVbBbjnlc

— MLB (@MLB) June 7, 2024

After Crochet is done with the top half, we get a look at Cooper Criswell in the bottom half. He’s 3-1 with a 3.92 ERA in nine starts, doing a serviceable job in his first full year as a starter. The former Tar Heel has held opponents to a .188 average in the first inning and has yet to walk a batter in that frame.

That trend should continue against the weak White Sox, who average 0.25 runs per first at home – 28th in baseball.

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Rockies at Cardinals: Austin Powers Early Explosion

Austin Gomber and Lance Lynn were like two ships passing in the night of the St. Louis Cardinals organization, with Gomber joining the big club in 2018 after Lynn left for Minnesota. Lynn has since returned and Gomber will do the same – in another uniform – in this matchup in the Midwest.

Lynn’s second go-around with the Cardinals has gone pretty well. He enters this one with a 3.23 ERA in 12 starts as the two-time All-Star inches toward 2,000 career strikeouts (he’s 37 away).

The veteran righty has been a bit shaky of late, however, giving up 22 runs in his last 30⅔ innings. A bunch of them were unearned, but Lynn hasn’t helped himself by issuing 12 walks and hitting a pair of batters. His first innings have been uneven, at best; Lynn has a 5.75 ERA in that stanza and opponents are hitting .308 with an .840 OPS on his first 25 pitches of a game.

A lot of it comes at home, but the Rockies are sixth in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage at 32.26.

Gomber has already been back to pitch at Busch a handful of times since moving on to Colorado a few years ago. The most recent return last year resulted in six scoreless innings.

The Florida Atlantic product is coming off a tough outing at Dodger Stadium in which he gave up two first-inning runs. That raised his ERA in the first to an unsightly 8.18. Gomber has given up four of his 11 home runs in the first while handing out as many walks (8) as strikeouts.

That’s a pretty rough set of numbers. The Cardinals tend to struggle against southpaws, but they’ll be looking to pounce on this one who often needs a couple of innings to get going.

First Inning to Score: YES

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Orioles at Blue Jays: Cole as Ice

While the Yankees are threatening to run away with the AL East, the Orioles are trying to stay close enough to have a shot in the second half. Everyone else is at least 12 games off New York’s pace already, but Baltimore enters this weekend set with a 4½-game gap.

Aaron Civale will try to make that mission tough on the O’s as he meets them for the second straight time. The 28-year-old righty held Baltimore to one run in 5⅓ innings his last time out, keeping them off the board until the sixth.

It’s been an up-and-down (mostly down) start to Civale’s Tampa Bay career, but he usually opens games on the right foot. He owns 2.50 ERA through the first three innings with opponents posting a .581 OPS. Those numbers soar to 9.35 and .966, respectively, in innings 4-6. You might be able to find an MLB bet that takes advantage of that mid-game swoon.

For our purposes, we like Civale to post an early zero against a Baltimore lineup that has scored in the first inning only once in 28 road games.

Cole Irvin gets the nod for the Orioles as he looks to continue a very strong campaign. He pitched into the seventh inning against the Rays on Sunday while allowing two runs. The solid outing included a scoreless first, maintaining Irvin’s 0.00 ERA in that frame.

The Blue Jays remain tied for last in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage (12.90), a number that’s fallen dramatically of late. For context, it was 22.86 exactly one month ago.

Ready to Bet? View the current odds now.

First Inning to Score: NO

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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