YRFI/NRFI Bets, 9/12: Brewers Seek Bounceback vs Birdsong
- Take stock of our best YRFI/NRFI bets.
- Milwaukee is a solid option for first-inning runs.
- Cleveland takes aim at Pepiot, Rays in series opener.
- Read on for more analysis of these games before heading to the BetUS Sportsbook.
NRFI/YRFI Bets for 9/12
1. YRFI: Brewers vs Giants: A sour note for Birdsong
OK, we were wayyyyy off on the Milwaukee-San Francisco matchup Wednesday night, predicting a scoreless first and then seeing Colin Rea of the Brewers get pulverized in his worst start of the year.
That’s baseball. We can break everything down here and spit out winners most of the time, but Rea might’ve made a questionable breakfast choice or had a tag on his shirt scratching the back of his neck, something that just threw him off course. Whenever something like this occurs, we like to go right back to the scene of the crime and try again.
The Giants will start rookie Hayden Birdsong in the rubber match of the three-game set. The Illinois native figures to have some great days ahead, but the bloom has come off the rose over the past month-plus. Birdsong is 0-5 with an 8.31 ERA over his last six starts, piling up 20 walks in 21⅔ innings.
That’s an ugly set of figures, but even more so against the team that leads the National League in walks. Four of them came in just 3⅔ innings when Birdsong pitched at Milwaukee last month, allowing five runs. He managed a scoreless first in that encounter and has mostly avoided damage in the opening frame overall, but it’s hard to have much confidence in the young righty.
Frankie Montas is on the hill for the Milwaukee Brewers, hoping to give them a boost after Rea’s disaster. Montas has found a nice groove since arriving in a deadline deal with Cincinnati, posting a 3.30 ERA over his last five starts.
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Like Birdsong, walks can be an issue with Montas. He’s issued 17 free passes in 25⅔ innings in the first (he left one start after two outs due to an injury), a very poor rate of which the Giants can take advantage. They are seventh in the majors in first-inning walks, grabbing one in a four-run first against Rea.
Jerar Encarnación goes oppo taco 🌮 pic.twitter.com/XDG6vm2NgZ
— SF Giants on NBCS (@NBCSGiants) September 12, 2024
Montas issued a walk and hit a batter in the first inning in a start at San Francisco earlier this year. He allowed five runs in 4⅔ frames in that game, and we think the Giants can get to him early here.
Bet on Brewers-Giants First Inning to Score – YES
2. YRFI: Rays vs Guardians: First-inning fireworks possible in Cleveland
Cleveland has a five-game lead in the loss column over Kansas City with 16 games to play. It has a great chance to inch closer to a clinch with Tampa Bay – losers of three straight – in town.
The Guardians give the ball to Gavin Williams, who has been riding a roller coaster this month. After spinning seven dominant innings in a big win over the Royals on Sept. 2, Williams was pounded by the Dodgers in Los Angeles his last time out.
After getting Shohei Ohtani to ground out to begin the first inning in LA, Williams then went walk, walk, walk, two-run double, sacrifice fly and RBI single. He was yanked with two outs and the next batter hit a two-run bomb, closing the books on Williams: five runs allowed in two-thirds of an inning.
It’s a huge step down from the top of the Dodgers’ lineup to the top of the Rays’ lineup, but at least there’s recent precedent for a choppy first. In his 29 career starts, Williams has a 4.71 ERA in the first inning and Tampa Bay is seventh in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage on the road (32.39).
Winners of three in a row, the Guardians take aim at Ryan Pepiot, who enters at 8-6 with a solid 3.66 ERA. That figure jumps to 4.91 in the first inning, when Pepiot has given up five of his 16 home runs.
Cleveland is ninth in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage at home (32.35) and it put two on the board (in interesting fashion) at Chicago on Wednesday en route to a 6-4 win.
“Wanna see me drive in two runs on an infield single?
Wanna see me do it again?” – Lane Thomas pic.twitter.com/6d2VvxzjmM
— MLB (@MLB) September 11, 2024
Put it all together and you can see some logic behind a bet online in favor of an early run or two.
Bet on Rays-Guardians First Inning to Score – YES
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
Questions Of The Day
Are there any other matinees that look good for an MLB bet?
If you’ve visited this space each of the last two days, you’ve seen us pump up the Tigers against the Rockies. Well, they have Tarik Skubal on the mound for the series finale opposite Ryan Feltner. It’s another massive mismatch in a series that has seen surging Detroit outscore Colorado by an 18-4 margin.
