Belmont Stakes 2023: Full Race Preview, Predictions, Contenders, Horse Picks and Best Betting Odds

So, just while we get Brian back on the line, I’ll give you a little bit of a recap. We had Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Derby was the first leg of the Triple Crown. We had, oh, we had Forte who was withdrawn on the morning of the race. We had so many runners that are going to be running in this Belmont Stakes. In fact, the Belmont Stakes is very heavy with Kentucky Derby entrants. Then we had a decent winner in Mage, but Mage was run down and beaten quite squarely by Forte in the Florida Derby.

Then we went on to the Preakness, and the Preakness, well, there was so many, there was a favorite. He came out, then another favorite, he came out. Forte was at the forefront of all of that again. Angel of Empire went off, obviously favorite for the Kentucky Derby. That then comes back for the Belmont Stakes. But the big one here is we’ve got Forte, we’ve got Angel of Empire and we’ve got Tapit Trice, who are all at the front of the market 24 hours prior to the race.

Also, what I say to you about the Belmont Stakes, it is over 12 furlongs, which is one mile and four, which basically is the longest of the three Triple Crown races, and I always think that the best horse always wins this race. I don’t think we get any upsets over the 12-furlong distance and we’ve only nine runners. I don’t think there’s any problem at all with traffic, because if they go off too fast, you can organize yourself, and if they come off too slow, then you can make a mid-race move and still not have a problem.

How am I getting on with Brian? Any news? Oh, okay. Well Brian seems to have just, he’s probably just done one. So why don’t I just jump in and give you the rundown of those contenders first of all. We’ll have a little chat about them, and then obviously, when Brian comes back, he can add his two-penneth. And if he doesn’t agree with me, then we’ll just delete it. So let’s have a little look, please, of the first of the contenders, and its National Treasure, who basically had the race to himself in the Preakness. Came out of the one, just basically went an absolute crawl, quickened.

And the Kentucky Derby winner, Mage, was back in third, but National Treasure did have to fight all the way to the line. The trainer needs no introduction, Bob Baffert. Jockey, well, Velazquez, he knows the time of day and he obviously rode him to sleep in the Preakness. But the big thing for me was he’s +600 and he’s not moving. He’s not getting bigger, he’s not getting shorter, so for me, he’s definitely one to take on. I don’t think he sees out the mile and four as well. Could be wrong, but he’s one that I’d want to oppose, and being at +600 means I’m going to maybe get some value elsewhere.

Let’s have a little look at horse number two. It’s Tapit Trice, who’s going to be maybe joint second favorite at +350. Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, and he’s coming out of post two, which is probably decent enough for Tapit Trice to get himself into the race quite quietly. And I don’t think there’s any problem obviously being by Tapit, that he’s going to see out the 12 furlongs. Absolutely no problem, and I’ll definitely would say that he’s one that we would want to definitely be into the three. Whether he is in the two, I’m not so sure, but Todd Pletcher, he’s definitely going to be mob-handed here, because this is not going to be his only runner.

Let’s move on to horse number three. Horse number three is your favorite, and rightful favorite as well. Remember he was the favorite for the Kentucky Derby. He would’ve been favorite for the Preakness, and he’s the rightful favorite now at a +190. If you think about favorites over the last few years that have gone off around this, I would say that potentially Forte’s the best of them and, also, I think he’s crying out for this trip.

And the trainer, Todd Pletcher, he’s coming out of six. Irad Ortiz, Jr. needs no introduction, and at +190. Yeah, I don’t mind telling you, I have actually got stuck into the +190, and if things go well elsewhere, whether it be NBA or the finals, maybe Champions League, I will be sticking a little bit more on at +190, if I can get it on the day. Let’s move on to the next one, please.

Angel of Empire, I loved this horse in the Derby. Was a little bit unlucky. Didn’t do anything wrong, really, in defeat, just beaten by a better horse and a better ride on the day. But he’s coming out of stall eight, who’s going to be basically on the right outside. Trainer’s Brad Cox. Flavien Prat is the man on board, and at +350, he’s going to be alongside Tapit Trice in the market.

I love Angel of Empire. Sees the trip out, no problem. I’m wondering if he’s going to be able to be as deadly with that mid-race kick though. So again, a lot of it’s going to be on the pace of the race. I think the pace of the race comes from National Treasure. I mean, National Treasure goes to the front and he’s not going to be able to ride them to six, because I think something will take him on. Hopefully we’ll get Brian back soon. Brian, you’re back.

Brian Zipse:

…. apologize.

Flash:

There’s no worry.

Brian Zipse:

Flash:

It’s the home of horse racing. Well, you’ve missed the winners anyway. Let’s put it this way, it doesn’t mean we’ve missed your selections.

Brian Zipse:

Let’s get some [inaudible 00:07:53]-

Flash:

No, I’ve just gone through the boring bit. I’ve just basically going through the runners, riders. In a minute, we’ll get them all up. But obviously, you can come in here, because you know that I have a soft spot for Angel of Empire. Coming out of eight, it’s no real big problem. Trainer’s obviously Brad Cox, Flavien Prat. And at +350, he’s going to basically be vying for second favoritism with Tapit Trice.

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, I’m actually surprised that his odds are as high as they are. I mean, he was the favorite, the Kentucky Derby, and I thought he ran a big race in the Kentucky Derby, rallying strongly for second. Interesting that trainer, Brad Cox, went to Blinkers for the Belmont. So yeah, he’s got a good post on the outside. I also expect just a little bit more early speed. He won’t be part of the lead obviously, but I could see him at least in touch, much closer than he has been in recent races, in this longer race, which should be a good thing for him. But it is a slight change of style for one of the favorites.

Flash:

Yeah, and I don’t expect a wall of horses in front of him, because I expect only maybe him to be sitting third or fourth. Because I only see two front-runners, National Treasure being one, and we may well be able to find another as we go through. Next horse after Angel of Empire is Hit Show. Post position seven. Trainer, again Brad Cox. Manny Franco sitting on top. And at +1200, looks like maybe a place is as best as he’s going to hope for.

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, +1200. I mean, this is a nice horse. He’s run a lot of good races, Flash. He’s another horse that could show a little bit more speed than he generally has. He was close to a pretty fast pace in the Kentucky Derby. I just think if you look at all his races, they don’t quite stack up against the likes of Forte, Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice. Yeah, I’m off his chances in the Belmont, because this Belmont has come up strong, but he’s a horse who certainly could run another good race and could be third or fourth, possibly.

Flash:

Yeah, and he’s another horse that did run in the Kentucky Derby, with Tapit Trice, with Angel of Empire, and obviously, 48 hours before the Kentucky Derby, the favorite in Forte as well. But we’re not having Hit Show, so let’s move on to the next one, because the next one is only here because of you, Brian. Tapit Shoes, post position one. Again, Brad Cox. Joe Ortiz on top and +2500. Well, if he’s here for you and you’ve seen +2500, you’ve got to be happy with that.

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, I mean, he’s bred for a distance. All the Tapits seem to love a mile and a half at Belmont, so Tapit Trice, Tapit Shoes, both being out of Tapit, should appreciate what the Belmont Stakes has to offer. Tapit Shoes is not the horse that these other horses were just a few months ago, Flash, but he is really getting better each and every race. I thought his last race in Arkansas was very good, and then they gave him a month and a half off between that, getting him ready for this. I think he’s an interesting horse at those +2500 odds for a big-time trainer.

Flash:

Yeah, big-time trainer. Do we look like this is another one of them horses that, even if he doesn’t, whatever he does this weekend will be a bonus? But we are likely to see him later on in the season at the backend?

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, I think he is a horse, who, if he continues to improve. We’ll see what the Belmont takes out of him. But I also think more immediately for this race, he’s a horse that could just stick around the whole race. I don’t think you’re going to see a big burst of speed out of him, but he’s a horse who could sit third early and then just stay there and still be running down the stretch. We’ve seen National Treasure do it, both on the lead in the Preakness and then in the Santa Anita Derby. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Tapit Shoes run that kind of race on Saturday.

Flash:

Okay, can we have a little look at the horse racing odds to win and in post position, because Brian, I’m going to hand this over to you. Because obviously, we’ve got just the eight runners. Who do you see that’s going to basically break here, go to the front? And then can we work out between us how we think the race is going to unwind? Because the real thing is, it doesn’t matter what happens in the first 10 furlongs, it’s what happens in the last two.

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, the Belmont is often won by the time they straighten out. By the way, we’re missing Red Route One, the nine horse there. I think he is a long shot that will be back early and probably is not one of my favorites, but he is the nine in the race. As far as speed, certainly National Treasure is the one that will go out to the lead, and it’ll be a matter of who pressures him.

We might see Forte go out early and make sure that National Treasure does not have things his own way, like he did in the Preakness. Other horses, Tapit Shoes, the long shot, Il Miracolo, maybe Hit Show, maybe even Arcangelo could all be close enough to make life a little bit more difficult for National Treasure.

Flash:

Can you put a little bit more meat on the bone with the horses that are not household names, like Arcangelo and dear Il Miracolo?

Brian Zipse:

I think Il Miracolo, because he wired the last race, is a horse that pretty much should try to go out to the early lead. Arcangelo, I think is a horse that could win this race or could run a very good race, and I think he’ll be tactical. I think he’ll be another horse like-

Flash:

Whoa, whoa, whoa, Brian… What? The free could could win this race and he’s at +1400?

Brian Zipse:

Yeah. I think he’s the fourth most likely horse to win this race. Arcangelo, 1400 are really good odds. He’s a horse who could run badly, because he’s never proven himself against these horses, Flash. But Arcangelo, he’s got a nice stakes win over the track and he is certainly getting better, just like I said with Tapit Shoes. But maybe even Arcangelo has proven more than Tapit Shoes. His last race in the Peter Pan, at Belmont Park, was very good. He’s a horse who also should handle the distance. Yeah, Arcangelo is a potential winner of the Belmont Stakes.

Flash:

Okay, let’s just digress here a little bit, because we had Arcangelo obviously ran in the Peter Pan and he’s +1400. And there’s a horse that’s not running here that would’ve been less, in Arabian Lion, because obviously that ran at Maryland, and you’re saying that maybe the Peter Pan’s form would be a little bit better than the Arabian Lion race?

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, if we’re going to compare Arabian Lion and Arcangelo, I would like ar Arcangelo much better in this spot, especially with the presence of Arabian Lion’s stablemate, National Treasure. Because if one of them is the lone speed in the race, they become a little bit tougher, and that’s probably why Arabian Lion isn’t even taking a shot. But by the way, Arcangelo definitely beat better horses in the Peter Pan than Arabian Lion did last time in the Sir Barton.

Flash:

Yeah, the reason I digressed to that was basically, because if Arabian Lion was in this, he wouldn’t be any bigger than +750, and there you are getting Arcangelo at double that price at +1400. I know we obviously chat off-air, but another good thing to maybe make people aware of is, we don’t really see that there’s anyone here who’s undervalued, do we?

Brian Zipse:

Yeah. I mean, I’m not on a few, I’m not on Hit Show, I’m not on Red Route One, but the value in this race is good. I mean, even Forte, the favorite, at +190, if he is the best horse, which I think most people would guess that he is, +190’s not bad. But yeah, I’m looking at some of these odds, Flash, 1400 on Arcangelo, 2500 on Tapit Shoes. The favorites look tough, but those are horses who are live in here.

Flash:

Yeah, I like it, I like it. How do we get… Obviously, I don’t like having this conversation. But for me to be half neutral, even though my pocket is with the six and I love the eight, how do we get the six beat? Because obviously, I’ve got a cater. For those who don’t have their few shekels on a +190, they are going to be more happy with the +350s, the +600s, and now, the +1400 with the free.

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, if you’re looking for favorites in this race, I think you get the value, and if you’re looking to throw in a long shot, like I am, into probably the trifectas and maybe even the exactas, the value is certainly there. It’s an interesting betting race.

Flash:

Okay, so if you, who’s your exacta?

Brian Zipse:

My exacta, I’m going to go with my top pick, Flash. My top pick in here is Tapit Trice. I’m hoping he’s the third choice, he might be the second choice. We see +35, 350 on both him and Angel of Empire. Like I said, I think those are square. I just think he’s a mile-and-a-half horse and I think this is a race that sets up well for Tapit Trice.

So I’m going to use Tapit Trice, with a couple long shots, those being the two I mentioned, Tapit Shoes and Arcangelo. I’m also going to use him with Forte, who I think is the horse to beat. So I got those four, but Tapit Trice I would like to see run first or second.

Flash:

Will you bet Tapit Trice to win?

Brian Zipse:

I’m sorry, say it again.

Flash:

Will you bet Tapit Trice just to win? And obviously you’ll have him in your exotics as well?

Brian Zipse:

I would recommend giving Tapit Trice a try, at least at 350 to win. Will I personally? No. I’m looking for something a little bit bigger when I collect on the Belmont Stakes, so I will be betting exotics.

Flash:

When you collect? If you were to collect, you mean. If you were to collect-

Brian Zipse:

Yeah. That’s always the question, right? … collect. Generally. We’ve known each other for a few years now, Flash. I’m looking for bigger payoffs. I don’t need to collect every race, I want to collect the big ones.

Flash:

See that’s why we differ. I want to collect in every single race, and I don’t care, as long as it keeps my Walmart bill down. But I’m all in on Forte, and that really does… I did this a few years ago. I remember we were talking, because I think it was authentic and it was maybe Hot Rod Charlie and I went, I think it was that race, and they went head-to-head and I was on the wrong one. I actually, I was told to be with Bob Baffert’s horse, and I went against him and got done. It was just absolutely crazy.

Epicenter last year came second or third in nearly every single race, until the Travers, and that’s when I got my money back. But this one, I’m going to go with Forte. He is the talking horse. He has been off for a while, but I have taken the 190. If I get beat, I’m happy to sit here now. I don’t want it to be Angel of Empire unless Forte’s second. Because if Angel of Empire wins or if Angel of Empire comes second and Forte’s not the winner, then I will have got this race completely wrong, Brian.

Brian Zipse:

Yeah Forte, like I said, he is the horse to beat. You also get trainer Todd Pletcher who has won this race four times, and Todd Pletcher’s, his home track is Belmont Park. He clearly knows how to get horses ready for the Belmont. So Forte, 10 weeks off is a bit of a concern. I’m not worried about the foot bruise that kept him out of the Derby and then was forced out of the Preakness.

10 weeks off is a little concern, the distance. He’s never been farther than nine furlongs, a mile and an eighth, which is true of some others in here as well. I’m leaning towards the other Pletcher as you know, but I think the Pletchers make a lot of sense if you look at how well that trainer has prepared horses for the Belmont Stakes, either winning or running big races to be second over the last decade or more.

Flash:

Yeah. Fresh is an angle that I would want to take than others could say. He might turn up rusty, but again, there’s only nine runners. It’s one of those where he’s going to have time to get himself ready. And remember when he won the Florida Derby, he was never going any better than when he actually hit the line. And by the way, when he hit the line, he was going past the Kentucky Derby winner. So again-

Brian Zipse:

Flash:

… he isn’t-

Brian Zipse:

… he was impressive any way you slice it, and then the horse he beat came back and won the Kentucky Derby. I mean, Forte has done absolutely nothing wrong in winning five straight graded stakes now over a long period of time. There’s a reason he’s the champion.

Flash:

Yeah. Okay, well, before we have a look at our best bets, even though probably you will be able to guess mine, but obviously Brian will probably stick a couple of bigguns in there as well. If there’s any questions that you want, and I’m sure Brian will answer them, I’ll give you a little bit time to type in. Because Brian, I’ve got one for you. What happens to these horses that have been involved in the last three Triple Crown races? Do they get put away and we’ll see them again around August, September in the Travers?

Brian Zipse:

I’m sorry, Flash, I’m having trouble hearing. Question?

Flash:

Yeah, the question from me to you was basically, these horses that have been basically trained for the Kentucky Derby, for the Preakness, and the Belmont, what happens to them after the Belmont? Do they get put away until, I don’t know, August, September, so they can have a fall campaign? And is the Travers the next main target, I would say?

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, yeah. The answer is that some of these horses will get a rest, but the big stars here have not run in all three legs of the Triple Crown, so a big rest won’t be needed. The Travers is another two and a half months or so at Saratoga. That will be a big race, of course. That’ll push the needle as far as who’s going to be three-year-old champion. But for now, the Belmont Stakes is a big race. And yeah, we’ll see the horses like Forte, Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire, and maybe one of the others that pops up here in the Belmont.

Target races, like the Haskell at Monmouth Park in late July, or the Jim Dandy at Saratoga, and they’ll use those good races as a stepping stone for the Travers. The Travers, I think when horses started running in less legs of the Triple Crown, in other words, they don’t do all three legs of the Triple Crown, the Travers in recent years has become even a bigger race-

Flash:

It’s like the fourth leg.

Brian Zipse:

We call that mid-summer derby.

Flash:

Yeah, no, no, I agree with that. I agree with that. And you know what the other thing we’ve not mentioned and we should? The girls turn up as well. I love the fact that the fillies are obviously, they come across as well. Obviously Nest last year. And then they’re getting ready for the Breeders Cup, and there’s a couple of stars right across the globe that I fancy we may see at the Breeders’ Cup this year as well.

Okay, let’s have a look at the best bets. Okay, so Brian, this is, Brian is in order, by the way, and he’s probably going to add another one. So you could just maybe take out Tapit Shoes at +2500 for one of your trifectas or superfectas, and maybe stick in Arcangelo. Tapit Trice at +350, Forte +190. Box them all and any two, three or four. That’s right, Brian, isn’t it?

Brian Zipse:

I think there are eight viable horses to bet out of the nine. I don’t like Hit Show, I don’t like Red Route One. But there’s six horses that make some sense in here, but I think it’s the Pletcher horses that lead the way. Angel of Empire, your second pick is certainly eligible to run a good race. Hopefully, one of my long shots gets in there as well, Flash.

Flash:

Yeah, I see. But we’re mum. Basically, I’m looking for Forte to win, Brian. Brian, it’s been brilliant. We had a great… I love the fact that we actually have been able to do these shows. There’s been so many horses that are in and out and the numbers have changed, and obviously second and third in the Derby, then obviously we pick the winner in the Preakness.

And hopefully, we’ll do the same again, Brian, with Forte. And then, obviously, if it’s not mine that comes second, then obviously, I hope that one of yours does. Maybe Tapit Shoes, because you’re the only person that’s been on about that horse. So that’s a nice reward for your knowledge.

Brian Zipse:

Forte’s, the one to beat, and hopefully, we see him run a big race on Saturday.

Flash:

Yeah, let’s hope so. Let’s hope so. Really look forward to that. So remember, it’s the Belmont Stakes. It’s over a mile and four. It’s a championship distance for a championship race, and for a championship purse as well. For myself and Brian, we’ll look forward to seeing you again very, very soon here on BetUs, because we will have the Travers and then we’ll be building up for the Breeders Cup, where we do cover all nine races.

And if you followed us last year, you’ve still not spent the money from all of those winnings. Brian, really appreciate everything you do, couldn’t do it without you. And thank God, I don’t have to. From everyone at BetUS, enjoy the Belmont Stakes.