CFL Odds & Picks: Bet Against Scoring Despite QB Changes in Week 11
- CFL Week 11 promises to be electric given the quarterback changes
- From Ottawa to BC, expect these new QBs to make an impact on the CFL odds
- Find these top Canadian football betting lines at BetUS!
As we expected, the home teams cooked for CFL Week 10 going 3-0-1 straight-up and 3-1-0 against the CFL football spreads (ATS). But the script flips this week as the visitors could be on the stronger side. The odds opened with three of the four road teams favored though that has flipped given recent developments. Quarterback shuffling will determine the best bets for CFL Week 11.
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3 CFL Betting Predictions & Picks for Week 11
1. Redblacks and Stampeders Get Tight
The Redblacks face an uphill climb heading to Calgary. For one, they struggled to score last week and settled for a controversial tie with Saskatchewan. Next, they visit Calgary, a place where the Stampeders are a perfect 4-0 this season. Lastly, starter Jeremiah Masoli has not played since July of last year after suffering a leg injury. But he’s back.
“It means the world to me,” Masoli told Postmedia’s Don Brennan after his first practice back from injury. “It’s been a long time coming for sure.”
Masoli has had issues staying on the field. He has played in just five games since Ottawa acquired him in 2022. And he has not played a full season since 2018 with Hamilton where he put up his most prolific season with 5,209 passing yards and 28 touchdowns. We’re skeptical he can recapture this form.
Thus, Ottawa enters as a 3½-point underdog against Calgary. The Stamps are unbeaten at home but have won by four points or fewer in their last three wins. They are just getting by. And Ottawa’s defense has been the team’s anchor. The total of 49½ is a tad too high.
The best CFL bet here could be a same-game parlay for Ottawa to cover in a low-scoring game. Defenses should feature here as the Redblacks keep things close for its rusty QB.
Bet on Redblacks, Stampeders Under 49½
2. Alouettes Roll Into Saskatchewan at a Value Price
It’s not every day you find the defending champions merely as a 1½-point favorite. But the Alouettes get a “discounted” price due to being a visitor with a backup quarterback in Davis Alexander. He lit up Hamilton but that’s the CFL’s worst defense. In Saskatchewan, the Roughriders might offer more resistance.
The Riders are 6-3 ATS this season and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Montreal has also had a hard time winning in Regina with just two victories in its last eight trips. But this is also the best Als team since the Anthony Calvillo-led dynasty in the late 2000s.
Saskatchewan will also return its quarterback, Trevor Harris. This could be a “revenge game” for the former Alouette as he looks to light his team up. The sportsbook has saddled the week’s second-highest total of 51 for this game. That looks ‘sus’ as the Alouettes have the league’s best defense while that’s also the Riders’ strength.
As far as picking this game, we’ll side with Saskatchewan to pull off the slight upset. But the right play here is to go under 51 in the total.
Bet on Alouettes, Roughriders Under 51
3. Bombers Welcome Back Canadian QB Star
He’s back! Star Canadian quarterback Nathan Rourke is back with the BC Lions following short stints in the NFL. The former Most Outstanding Player candidate has flipped the CFL football betting lines as BC is now slightly favored (by a point) over Winnipeg. The Lions can snap its three-game stint, which includes getting shut out by Winnipeg 25-0 in their last meeting.
Canadian QB Nathan Rourke signed a three-year contract which includes $749,200 in hard money in 2025 and $809,000 in hard money in 2026, per sources.
There are $6,000 in award incentives available in both seasons, taking his earning potential to $755,200 and $815,000… https://t.co/fZI3egFA91 pic.twitter.com/SaYNJwbpYl
— Justin Dunk (@JDunk12) August 13, 2024
As for the Blue Bombers, the bye weeks could help them get things going on offense. Winnipeg ranks in the bottom third of the league in most offensive categories. Quarterback Zach Collaros has been rusty, to say the least. But the defense has started to play like championship caliber as evidenced by holding four of its last five opponents to under 20 points.
Hence, as excited as we are to see Rourke back, we’ll continue the trend of betting against the totals. The oddsmakers set this one up with a moderate 48-point total. But Rourke could need more than a few days to get going while we still don’t trust Winnipeg to light up CFL scores just yet. Bet the ‘under’.
Bet on Blue Bombers, Lions Under 48½
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
Questions Of The Day
Why is the CFL better than the NFL?
The CFL is a higher-scoring league and has rules that help make the game faster and more efficient.
What are the BC Lions' odds of winning the Grey Cup?
The BC Lions are listed at +450 to win the CFL’s Grey Cup per the latest betting odds.
